Trying to figure out Dalbec dilemma
FORT MYERS, Fla. — While Rafael Devers and Kiké Hernández compete in next month’s World Baseball Classic, the Red Sox will take a closer look at Bobby Dalbec.
The struggling infielder will spend some time at every position but second base.
Dalbec came up in the organization as a third baseman, but moved to first to avoid being blocked by Devers. After struggling through 2022, he’s now blocked by Triston Casas, too; the rookie is expected to be the everyday first baseman, with veteran infielder Justin Turner backing him up.
Hernández originally signed on to be the everyday second baseman in 2021, then spent the majority of his time in center field, and signed a one-year extension last fall to continue in center before Xander Bogaerts’ departure and Trevor Story’s UCL surgery necessitated a move to shortstop.
Where does all of this leave Dalbec? The organization has been trying to figure out where he fits into the equation for the better part of the last year. According to a source within the organization, the Red Sox were prepared to trade
Dalbec early in the ’22 season, if Casas got off to a hot start in Triple-A and looked ready to debut.
But when Casas sustained a high-ankle sprain in May and missed over a month of the minor-league season, and Dalbec struggled to the extent that it didn’t make sense to trade him, the Red Sox had to pivot. They tried to turn outfielder Franchy Cordero into a first baseman, and when that didn’t work, they acquired Eric Hosmer, a former Gold Glove first baseman, at the trade deadline.
As Casas returned from his injury and it became clear that he could be ready for a September call-up, the Red Sox tried to teach Dalbec second base. Ultimately, they optioned him to TripleA to open a roster spot for Casas.
Now, Dalbec is slated to see time at shortstop, instead, an interesting experiment for a player who ranked in the fifth percentile in arm strength last year.
Through his first three years playing at least part of the season in the majors, he’s made 233 appearances at first, 40 at third, five as DH, three at shortstop, and two at second. Last year, he made three errors in 24 appearances (14 starts) at third, and two in 89 appearances (64 starts) at first.
Dalbec was a top prospect when he debuted with the Red Sox late in the 2020 season. He hit eight home runs in 23 games that first year, but also struck out 39 times in 23 games.
In 2021, he collected 21 doubles, five triples, and 26 home runs in 133 games, but also struck out 156 times and only walked 28 times in his first full season.
Last year, he regressed, putting together nine doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs while striking out 118 times in 117 games, but he pushed his walk rate up from 6.2% the year before, to 8.2%. Cumulatively, though, Dalbec draws walks at a below-average rate, and his 34.9% career strikeout rate is over 10% higher than league average (22.9%). In 2022, his K% ranked in the 2nd percentile.
It’s difficult to compare Casas’ offensive numbers after only 27 career games in the majors, but even in that short span, his plate discipline improved dramatically. In his first 13 games, he collected three hits (though two of them were home runs), struck out 12 times, and drew six walks; in the remaining 14 games, he added 12 hits and 13 walks and only struck out 11 times.
Maybe there’s still room for Dalbec somewhere in the infield, but that’s only part of the puzzle.
Machado to opt out
Good thing the Red Sox locked Devers down when they did.
On Friday, Manny Machado officially confirmed that he plans to opt out of his Padres contract at the end of the season, telling reporters, “There’s a lot of money out there.”
Ahead of the 2019 season, Machado became the first player in MLB history to receive a contract of $300 million or more. But he was 26 then; the shortstop-turnedthird-baseman will be 31 in July, so it makes sense that he’d want to opt out and seek a new long-term deal; he’d be a 36-year-old free agent if he opted into his 2024-28 player option.
This winter, shortstops Xander Bogaerts and Trea Turner each received 11year contracts this winter that will take them into their 40s. Bogaerts turned 30 on Oct. 1, Turner will be 30 on June 30 of this year.
If Machado opts out next fall, he can secure a deal that cushions the decline that inevitably comes with age. And there’s a lengthy, lucrative deal with his name on it somewhere, but there’s always an element of risk when leaving guaranteed money on the table. This offseason already provided one of the most shocking, Icarian storylines in free-agent history. Twice in December, Carlos Correa almost became the third shortstop to command a contract of a dozen or more seasons, but the Giants and Mets both balked at his physicals, and backed out.
Machado will be over a year older than Bogaerts and Turner were when they received their offers, and Bogaerts’ Padres deal vastly exceeded projections, both in years and salary. Correa is only 28, and ended up returning to the Twins on a six-year deal for over $100 million less than the two National League teams had offered.
The most intriguing aspect of this 2023 storyline is the ripple effect of Machado’s decision. Will the Padres make a play to keep him? Will they pivot to trying to extend Soto? Would they dare do both?
In recent years, the Padres have shown no hesitation when it comes to spending and trading to finally build that elusive first championship team. They’ve committed over half a billion dollars to Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. over the next 11-14 years, Joe Musgrove’s five-year, $100 million extension begins this season, and they just extended Yu Darvish through 2028 for $108 million.
But as Red Sox fans saw in 2018-19, the bill comes due eventually. Spotrac estimates that the Padres are currently over $11 million above the Competitive Balance Threshold. If they remain over the limit through the season, it will be their third consecutive year of taxation, and the penalties grow steeper each year they don’t reset. They paid a 30% tax on their overage last year, and would owe a 50% tax for this season; if the season ended today, that’s a $6 million penalty. (The Red Sox exceeded the luxury tax last season, but are on track to reset it this year by remaining comfortably under the $233 million threshold.)