Snow likely. How much? It’s anyone’s guess.
NWS says 48 hours 'an eternity' to predict winter storms
How much snow are we going to get? The National Weather Service doesn’t know.
The NWS on Saturday issued its first map for the expected storm Monday night into Tuesday, forecasting three to four inches of snow for most of Eastern Massachusetts.
But that estimate carries the “highest uncertainty” across the state, the map shows. Area meteorologists warned Saturday that it could easily be more or less than three to four inches, saying it was just too early to know.
“While our best estimate right now is three to four inches, it certainly is over 48 hours out which for a winter storm like this is an eternity,” said Bryce Williams,
meteorologist at the NWS Boston office. “The snowfall totals are going to change as we approach and get better data.”
A plowable snowfall is expected to hit the region after Monday’s evening commute and last through the Tuesday morning commute, NWS meteorologist Kristie Smith said. Most of the heavy snowfall should ease up by lunchtime Tuesday, with just some lingering showers in the afternoon, she said.
Western Massachusetts, where four to eight inches is expected, should start seeing snow the earliest around 8 p.m. before it hits Greater Boston around midnight, Williams said.
“It’s going to be gusty,” he said, “but no damaging winds with this and no coastal flooding issues, so this will be just the snow and hazardous travel.”
As of Friday, Boston has received just 10.3 inches of total snowfall this winter, which has been a wacky rollercoaster ride of mostly unseasonably warm temperatures spiked with bursts of arctic cold.
Areas north and west of Boston have received considerably more snow than metro Boston, Smith said, with some storms producing six or more inches of snow in Worcester and Essex counties.
Smith’s advice for drivers Monday into Tuesday: take it slow, stay home unless you absolutely have to go out.
“People up here, we like to pride ourselves on being able to drive in the snow,” she said, “but it may be a shock because we haven’t had many opportunities this year.”