Change assured for girls playoffs

The girls hockey state tournaments last year painted two teams as sure winners: Austin Prep pulled off the perfect season to secure the Div. 1 crown before leaving the MIAA, but Duxbury couldn’t survive the upset-ridden Div. 2 field.

The conversation is much different this time around.

Div. 1 is loaded at the top with No. 1 St. Mary’s replacing Austin Prep as the favorite. Only Archbishop Williams has beat them, and the two are in separate divisions. But two tight, one-goal battles in the regular season showed No. 2 NDA (H) is right behind the Spartans. A third episode between the two in the final would be epic, but neither are a guarantee to get there.

No. 8 Peabody/Lynnf./ NR has a history of running into St. Mary’s in the playoffs and could cause trouble should they cross paths in the state quarterfinals. If it’s not PLNR standing in the way of the Final Four, it’s likely a similarly powerful No. 9 Methuen/Tewksbury defense that passed a difficult test in the MVC/ DCL. The path for NDA isn’t any easier, with dangerous potential roadblocks in No. 7 Bishop Feehan, No. 15 Cape Cod, No. 18 Reading or No. 10 Arlington.

The rest of the bracket is bound for thrilling entertainment. No. 4 HPNA is on a collision course with unbeaten No. 5 Winthrop to make a run for the title, but still needs to get past a familiar foe with upset potential in No. 13 Billerica/Chelmsford. The same goes for a potential meeting between No. 3 Shrewsbury and No. 6 Hingham, but No. 11 Longmeadow and No. 14 Pope Francis are true threats.

Don’t count the chickens before they hatch in Div. 2, either.

Top-seeded Archbishop Williams looked destined for the title after beating St. Mary’s in the regular season, but losses to No. 2 Duxbury, No. 3 Andover and No. 4 Canton afterward revealed it won’t be that easy. Any one of the four have the strength to be champion.

Duxbury’s chance for revenge of its early exit to Canton in last year’s tournament won’t come unless the two meet in the final. Canton’s chance at revenge for the loss to defending champion No. 5 Algonquin in last year’s title game would arrive much sooner, and the Titans have the weapons to once again top the Bulldogs.

Don’t count out No. 6 Sandwich, No. 7 Falmouth or No. 8 Winchester from making a deep run.

Then there’s the upset factor. No. 18 Norwood, No. 19 Franklin, No. 20 Framingham, No. 21 Braintree, No. 22 King Philip, No. 23 Belmont, No. 24 Norwell and No. 25 Waltham have all flashed signature wins over top teams to resemble significant sleepers, making for what could be a wild first two rounds of play.

Predictions

DIV. 1

CHAMPION: No. 1 St. Mary’s (L) RUNNER-UP: No. 2 NDA (H) SLEEPER: No. 7 Bishop Feehan

FINAL FOUR: No. 1 St. Mary’s, No. 2 NDA, No. 4 Canton, No. 6 Hingham

BEST FIRST ROUND MATCH: No. 12 Bishop Stang vs No. 21 Whitman-Hanson/SL

POTENTIAL UPSET: No. 11 Longmeadow over No. 6 Hingham

DIV. 2

CHAMPION: No. 2 Duxbury

RUNNER-UP: No. 4 Canton

SLEEPER: No. 6 Sandwich

FINAL FOUR: No. 1 Archbishop Williams, No. 2 Duxbury, No. 3 Andover, No. 4 Canton

BEST FIRST ROUND MATCH: No. 11 Lincoln-Sudbury vs No. 22 King Philip

POTENTIAL UPSET: No. 21 Braintree over No. 12 Dedham