CASTING DOUBT ON BELICHICK’S IN-HOUSE FREE AGENT STRATEGY
Over the years, Bill Belichick has had an interesting approach to dealing with the Patriots’ best in-house free agents.
In short, it’s called rolling the dice.
Instead of working out a deal before they officially hit the market, Belichick typically tells them to find their best offer, and come back before signing on the dotted line elsewhere. If the player returns, Belichick decides if he’ll increase his offer to either match or come close, and then it’s take-it-or-leave-it time for the player.
“Their M.O. is always the same,” one agent told the Herald recently. “They’ll let a guy get close to free agency, and see what the market is. A lot of teams don’t like doing that. But the Patriots have never minded going that route.”
In the past, Belichick’s strategy most notably worked with Devin McCourty, Dont’a Hightower, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater and David Andrews, to name a few.
In McCourty’s case, it came down to the wire in 2015. It was nail-biting time. The Eagles, Giants and Jaguars were all in the mix, trying to woo the Patriots safety. McCourty had a deal in place with Philadelphia and was prepared to leave, but as the story goes, when he called Belichick to say goodbye, the Patriots’ head coach and chief decision-maker finally made his pitch.
McCourty ultimately took a little less to stay, but the 5-year, $47.5 million deal (28.5 million in total guarantees) he signed was competitive with what was on the table.
“I’m blessed to say we had other teams that were interested but I said all along that I knew in my heart that I wanted to be back in New England,” McCourty said during an interview with Comcast Sportsnet Boston at the time. “But I also knew the business side of football, and I had to do what I had to do. I’m back, but I’d be lying if I said there wasn’t possibilities over the last two days that I was going to be somewhere else. I’m happy it all worked out.”
Will Belichick still have that kind of success with Jakobi Meyers and Jonathan Jones, his top two free agents this year? There are already signs of the same scenario playing out.
After all, times have changed. Players have typically re-signed with the Patriots because Belichick comes relatively close to the number the players get on the outside. And, players also know that being with the Patriots usually enhances their chances of winning.
The latter attraction, however, doesn’t exist like it used to, not like the days when Tom Brady was under center.
Former Patriots linebacker Ted Johnson, part of the first three championship teams, has firsthand experience of that dynamic. He got to be a free agent once, then had the usual Belichick treatment with the head coach telling him to go see what he could get.
“I went to Green Bay, and the offer was a little bit better, but I wanted to win, so I came back,” explained Johnson, who hosts the Sunday Football Show on 98.5 The Sports Hub (8 a.m.-10 a.m.). “So Bill did that with me, and I’ll be honest, it didn’t sit well with me. I didn’t like it.
“We all have our reasons for coming back. We have our families here, we want to win, whatever,” he went on. “So you come back, but it never sits well with you that Bill was willing to let you go in the first place.”
By most accounts, Belichick is going to follow suit and let Meyers and Jones see what they can get during the tampering period over the next two days, or perhaps beyond. The Patriots go this route because they believe the player will find out the market isn’t quite what they thought, and ultimately come back.
How do players find that strategy? Speaking with Jonathan Jones on Wednesday after his appearance at the Patriots Hall of Fame, he wasn’t sure what to expect since it was his first crack at free agency. But there was little question his hope was to remain in New England.
“I’m new to this. If that’s how it goes, that’s how it goes,” Jones said when asked about Belichick’s philosophy with free agents. “My agent will handle all of that. For me, it’s more my decision on what I think is fair, and what’s out there.
“But I know that’s what usually happens,” he went on. “See what else is out there. But I can definitely feel there’s interest from New England to have me here. So, hopefully we can get it done.”
In other words, if the Patriots match the type of offers Jones is expected to attract when the legal tampering period commences Monday, chances are, Jones will return. If not, he’s probably gone.
It’ll be the same way with Meyers. The Patriots are taking a gamble, to be sure. They’re betting that maybe the market isn’t quite what the players and their agents expect.
Last season, top corner J.C. Jackson (5 years, $82.5 million) got a ton more than the Patriots were willing to spend, and off he went.
Meyers is looking at a payday around $12$14 million a year, and possibly more as the top wideout, per the NFL Network’s Mike Giardi. Jones is in the $10-$12 million range.
One might think it would be good business for the Patriots to keep two players they saw something in that other teams didn’t, and took a chance on after both went undrafted.
One might think it would behoove the Patriots to keep them in the fold because both of those players have produced well beyond expectations. They’ve bought into the program, have been model citizens, are emerging leaders in the room, and were both the top players at their respective positions.
More than anything, it sends a good message.
Johnson, however, believes the tables have turned, and Belichick is going to lose out more than he wins the way he deals with his in-house free agents.
“It’s a bigger risk for Bill to play that game now,” said Johnson. “It had worked out in his favor because he had Tom Brady. Guys want to play on a team when they know they have a chance to win every single Sunday. Only, the Patriots are not guaranteed a playoff spot any more.”
Not since Brady left, anyway.
McCourty’s influence
Speaking of Jonathan Jones, he offered some terrific insights during his appearance Wednesday at the Patriots Hall of Fame, speaking to Big Sister Boson on International Women’s Day.
At one point, the 29-year-old Patriots cornerback was asked about players who have influenced him the most in his career.
Without hesitation, Jones began with Devin McCourty. The veteran safety, who announced his retirement Friday, was the guy in the room Jones wanted to emulate, along with Matthew Slater.
And given how much time he’s spent watching McCourty go about his business during nearly a decade, Jones feels he’s ready to take on a similar role as a leader and mentor.
“The easy way to do something, is to see it done. If I could see it done, I could just repeat it,” Jones went on. “And me, going into Year 8 this year, I’ve turned into Devin. I’ve turned into that guy who younger guys come in and ask, ‘How have you been in the league 7-8 years?’’’
Speaking of younger guys, Jones says the future is bright for Jack Jones and Marcus Jones, who figure prominently in the Patriots secondary heading into their second year.
“They’re great football players. The future is theirs, what they make it, and what they put into it,” said Jones. “They have the talent. It’s going to come down to what work they put in.”
The Rodgers file
While it hasn’t happened yet, the expectation in NFL circles is that Aaron Rodgers – barring the mercurial quarterback throwing a curve ball – will eventually wind up in New York with the Jets, perhaps before the new league starts on March 15.
Should that happen, the AFC East could very well have a shake-up at the top. That means Buffalo will up against it to repeat as champs. It also means the Patriots could take over as the cellar dwellers in the division.
“The Jets, with Aaron Rodgers, I think they’re Super Bowl contenders,” said former Patriots great Ted Johnson. “I know that sounds crazy, but he’s a game-changer. If he’s motivated and engaged, and goes there and plays up to his ability, along with having an elite defense, I believe they’re going to be Super Bowl contenders.”
ESPN analyst and former Jet Keyshawn Johnson, meanwhile, offered his take on what will go down in the division shoulder Rodgers land in New York.
“(The Jets) will become my favorite team in the AFC East because when I look at the AFC East, you talk about the Buffalo Bills,” Johnson said Wednesday on ESPN. “Leslie Frazier is not there as the defensive coordinator anymore. What’s going to happen up there? Can they retool the defense? Can they get another receiver?
“You look down in Miami. What’s going on with the health of Tua? The New England Patriots are always a team you have to watch out for. Bill O’Brien comes from Alabama to run the offense to try to get Mac Jones to be what they thought he would be when they drafted him. That’s a lot. I know for sure that Aaron Rodgers can play quarterback. Aaron Rodgers would probably be the best quarterback in the division, surpassing Josh Allen. With Aaron Rodgers, the Jets go to the playoffs, the Jets win the division.”
No surprise fans in Buffalo were outraged by Johnson’s take on Rodgers jumping over Allen as the division’s best quarterback.
Saban on Tua
Over in Dolphin-land, Miami picked up Tua Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option.
That wasn’t all that surprising.
Still, there are major red flags around Tua given his history of concussions, suffering two last year that ultimately led him to miss five games last season, including a playoff loss to Buffalo. In 2021, Tagovailoa missed four games. So he’s had trouble staying on the field.
Alabama coach Nick Saban, who had Tua in college, recently expressed concern about his former quarterback on Stephen A. Smith’s podcast.
“I hate it that he’s having these issues and problems,” Saban said via the Palm Beach Post. “I would trust the medical staff to make the right choices and decisions for his safety, his future. I’d love to see him continue to be able to play and have success, but I don’t want him to put himself at risk either.
“I think any time that guys start having multiple concussions, it’s a cause for concern. But again, I think that’s got to be sort of ‘How concerning is it?’ is a medical question that needs to be answered by some people who are experts in that field.”
It’ll be interesting to see if the Dolphins add to the quarterback room.