Can the Patriots upset Mahomes, Reid?
Long gone are the days of the Patriots and Chiefs battling as AFC rivals, one league dynasty fighting to hold on while another emerges to take its place.
But that doesn’t mean the Pats can’t hang another win on Patrick Mahomes and Co. on Sunday.
After the Patriots were initially installed as 9.5-point underdogs, the point spread has shrunk by two points, a sign of the public’s belief in the Pats. Coming off an extended rest and a road upset at Pittsburgh, their offense may have finally settled on a winning, run-heavy formula. Defensively, though, is how the Pats must beat the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who have dropped three of their last four.
Can the Patriots make that four out of five? Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
When the Patriots run
Ezekiel Elliott should again eat as the Pats’ lead back, coming off a performance in Pittsburgh where he churned out 140 total yards taking 52 of the offense’s 57 snaps. Elliott told reporters he feels as fresh as he ever has this late in a season.
“I’ve got a lot of gas in the tank,” Elliott said Wednesday. “Definitely felt good to have the performance I did last week (at Pittsburgh).”
Lucky for him, Kansas City’s run defense has been more than welcoming to opponents. The Chiefs rank 27th by yards allowed per carry, 30th in DOVA and 31st by EPA. All-Pro defensive lineman Chris Jones (nine TFLs) will pose a matchup problem versus rookie right guard Sidy Sow, but the Pats may feel comfortable with their other matchups opposite Jones.
Look for the Patriots to employ a combination of double-teams and misdirection runs to handle Jones, and allow their offensive lineman to reach the second level. At the second level, the Pats must also find thumping linebacker Nick Bolton, who finished second in the NFL in tackles last year and returned to the starting lineup last week after recovering from a wrist injury.
When the Patriots pass
It all comes down to the blitz.
Backboned by a young, talented secondary, the Chiefs have blitzed at the sixth-highest rate this season. Jones and fellow defensive lineman George Karlaftis (nine sacks) have led the charge applying pressure, but seven different linebackers and defensive backs have tallied at least one sack. Bailey Zappe, who has faced fairly well against the blitz this season in limited action, described the challenge of Kansas City’s varied blitz package.
“They do a lot of things. I think a lot of it just comes down to the communication between me and DA (David Andrews) and the offensive line, trying to get all on the same page,” Zappe said. “As long as we’re on the same page, everything will hopefully go well. You’re just trying to believe in the offensive line that they’re going to pick up the pressures, whatever they bring, and just being able to stand back there confidently and just take care of the football and throw the open guys and let them make plays.”
Downfield, contested catches might be the Pats’ surest path to an upset. JuJu Smith-Schuster has posted the highest win rate on 50/50 balls among Patriots receivers this season and gained 37 yards on one such throw last week at Pittsburgh. In that department, the Pats will need more from 6-foot-3 DeVante Parker, who will have a significant size advantage versus most Chiefs cornerbacks.
When the Chiefs run
Former Chiefs first-round
pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire is in line to make his second straight start behind an above-average Kansas City offensive line.
Last week, EdwardsHelaire rushed for just 39 yards on 11 carries, as the Chiefs called 18 runs compared to 45 passes versus Buffalo. Don’t expect Kansas City to change their runpass balance much on Sunday.
The Patriots rank No. 1 in the league at fewest yards allowed per carry and EPA. Defensive tackle Davon Godchaux and outside linebacker Anfernee Jennings dominated the Steelers’ offensive
line. Top linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai also rank among the better run-stopping linebackers in the NFL. How Bentley and Tavai hold up in coverage, however, is a different story.
When the Chiefs pass
In their last meeting with the Chiefs, Bill Belichick orchestrated the greatest single-game defense of Mahomes the league had seen.
In that 2020 regularseason matchup, Kansas City scored just 19 offensive points, and the Patriots hung around despite playing backup quarterbacks
Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham. The key that night was dropping eight into coverage on 44% of Mahomes’ dropbacks and disguising coverage with unusual player alignment. Belichick admitted this week there’s no perfect coverage against Mahomes, who doesn’t have a weakness.
“Offensively, of course, it all starts with the quarterback. He’s a great player, does everything well, can make all the throws, athletic, got a lot of poise,” Belichick said. “He’s a clutch player, can’t say enough about what he does
for their team.”
After disrupting Mahomes, the Patriots will need to neutrailize his favorite target, tight end Travis Kelce. The future Hall of Famer leads the Chiefs with 80 catches and 896 yards and remains at the peak of his powers, despite poor receiving talent around him. After Kelce, the only notable receiver is rookie Rahsee Rice who ranks second in catches (59) and receiving yards (663) and tops all of his teammates with a half-dozen touchdowns.
Game pick
Chiefs 19, Patriots 9