MOST IMPORTANT PATS THIS WEEK
The Patriots are looking to play spoiler once again this weekend against the Bills.
At 9-6, the Bills are currently the No. 6 seed in the AFC. They currently have a 90% chance of making the playoffs, per The New York Times’ simulator. If the Patriots win Sunday, the Bills’ chances drop down to 47%. If the Bills win, they rise to 98%.
After the Broncos’ Week 16 loss to the Patriots, their playoff chances fell to just 4%.
Here are four Patriots players hoping to build off their momentum from that game.
QB Bailey Zappe
Starting his fourth game of the season, Zappe had one of the best performances from a Patriots quarterback in two seasons Sunday in the 26-23 win over the Broncos. Zappe had previously put together two solid first halves against the Steelers in Week 14 and the Chiefs in Week 15 but couldn’t finish either game strong.
That was not an issue in Week 16, when he put together the first gamewinning drive of his career.
Now, Zappe will look to build on that performance Sunday afternoon against the Bills. There is a blueprint for it.
Mac Jones’ signature win in a Patriots uniform came earlier this season in a 29-25 victory over the Bills. Jones was 25-of-30 for 272 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He did have running back Rhamondre Stevenson and wide receiver Kendrick Bourne, both of whom have since been placed on injured reserve, available in that game. Tight end Hunter Henry, who’s missed Week 16 and has been limited in practice this week, also played.
But the level of difficulty has not been a problem for Zappe. He’s won games without Stevenson, Bourne, Henry and wide receivers DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas this season.
Let’s see if he can continue to find success throwing downfield.
WR DeMario Douglas
The sixth-round pick out of Liberty needs 46 receiving yards for the most by a rookie pass catcher in the Bill Belichick era. He needs just 2 more yards for the most by a rookie wide receiver since 2000. Douglas needs just one catch for the most by a rookie pass catcher since Belichick took over.
Not bad for the rookie standout, who has missed three games with concussions.
Both Zappe and Jones have shown a nice rapport with Douglas. He caught five passes on eight targets for 74 yards last week.
DT Christian Barmore
The Patriots got a steal when they traded up to take Barmore in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft out of Alabama. He ranks among the NFL’s best interior defensive linemen in sacks, pressures and PFF pass-rush grade.
Barmore was dominant last Sunday night against the Broncos, sacking Russell Wilson three times. Linebacker Jahlani Tavai said this week that Barmore was hyped throughout the team’s flight back to Denver on Christmas morning.
Some key pressures, sacks and stops on third down against the Bills would go a long way toward securing a Week 17 upset. Barmore also forced a fumble and had two tackles for loss against the Broncos.
Good defensive tackles get paid well on the open market. The Patriots have plenty of cap space heading into next offseason and have to throw around cash to meet the NFL’s spending floor. Locking up Barmore to a long-term contract would be a smart move no matter who is serving as head coach in 2024 and beyond.
LB Mack Wilson
One of the most unexpected aspects of the 2023 season has been Wilson’s sudden breakout over the second half of the season. He’s found a hybrid role as an edge/off-ball linebacker in the Patriots’ defense and now has sacks in three straight games.
The 25-year-old is building a case to be re-signed for the second straight offseason. Both linebackers coach Jerod Mayo and Tavai raved about Wilson’s speed this week.
Wilson primarily played as an off-ball linebacker in college and through the first four seasons of his NFL career with the Browns and Patriots. But injuries to Daniel Ekuale and Matthew Judon have shaken up the Patriots’ pass-rush packages. It’s forced players like Deatrich Wise and Keion White to play more inside and caused the team to need more players on the edge.
“In the past when we had [Matthew] Judon, Uche, Wise and those guys, there was less of a -we played him more off the ball. So now, in passing situations, he’s played more on the ball and he’s done a good job with it,” Belichick said. Wilson has also played well in coverage when asked to drop back.