How will AL East shake out?
GS: For starters, I can’t get over the Yankees being picked to win the East pretty much every year. Sure, it happens a fair amount, but they’re simply not the same franchise they were 20 years ago, and they haven’t proven much of anything in over a decade! I think the Orioles can take it again this year, but beyond that, I feel like it’s something of a toss-up, and may not be as hotly contested as last year. There are already significant pitching injuries around the division: Gerrit Cole will be out for at least two months of the regularseason, Lucas Giolito is missing the entire year, the Blue Jays won’t have Kevin Gausman to start the season, and the Rays have Jeffrey Springs and Shane McClanahan recovering from elbow surgeries last year. If the Red Sox can stay healthy and their young core – especially the pitchers – can take the necessary steps forward, I could see them being the third-place team. And, as we all know, the Red Sox love to outperform expectations after last-place finishes. Boston’s September schedule is almost entirely against their division foes, too, so this race could really come down to the wire. What do you think?
MC: I think the Yankees have plenty of reason for concern, but they’ve done enough this offseason that they should be in the playoffs when all is said and done. I do think the Orioles will repeat as AL East champions and frankly I don’t think it will be close. Their young stars will be a year older and a year better, they have reinforcements like top prospect Jackson Holfor liday knocking on the door, and now they’ve got a bona fide ace in Corbin Burnes. They’re going to be trouble. What I’m less sure about is everyone else. Tampa Bay has the injury issues on top of Wander Franco’s whole situation, and even if the Rays always seem to find a way, that’ll be a lot to overcome. As the Blue Jays, they had a pretty disappointing offseason and a lot of their better players are on the wrong side of 30. I don’t know who it will be, but I feel like someone in the AL East is going to slip this season.
GS: The one thing I’ll say about Burnes is that he’s used to having an elite bullpen backing him up. When I was covering the ‘21 Phillies, he and Zack Wheeler were vying for the NL Cy Young, and Wheeler led the Majors with 213 ⅓ innings pitched over 32 starts – including a league-leading three complete games – in large part because the Phillies didn’t have a reliable bullpen (they led MLB in blown saves for almost the entire season). Burnes, meanwhile, won the Cy Young despite throwing just 167 innings over 28 starts. His 2.43 ERA was significantly better than Wheeler’s (2.78), but he was also well-protected and could exit games earlier because the Brewers bullpen always got the job done. This isn’t a knock against Burnes, by any means, but it will be interesting to see how the Baltimore bullpen fares this year, especially with our old friend, Craig Kimbrel, assuming the closer role. Regarding the Yankees, it’s usually the same question: will Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton stay healthy and be productive? I definitely agree that at least one team is going to slip this year, and I’d guess it’s the Jays or the Rays. It’s kind of crazy that there hasn’t been a Wander Franco update in about a month, too.
MC: It’s very strange. As far as the Red Sox go, I do think this is going to be a better season than a lot of people think, but realistically we’re probably still looking at a fourth- or fifth-place finish. Put me down for 83-79 and fourth place. I do think they’ll stay in the playoff hunt into September but I don’t think they’ll have enough to snag the third Wild Card spot.
GS: I think the trade deadline will factor heavily into the Red Sox’s outcome. They were still somewhat in the Wild Card race last July, and players were publicly begging the front office for reinforcements. That’s actually been the case in each of the past two seasons, and the front office didn’t really do much. When that happened, the clubhouse energy changed. It seemed like the players deflated a little bit, and Rafael Devers essentially confirmed that earlier this spring. If they’re playing well and somewhat in the playoff hunt in July, the response from Craig Breslow and Co. could make or break the latter half of the season. Everyone knows the Sox have the financial flexibility and farm system to make trades this summer, so it could be a significant test for team leadership.