25 Patriots thoughts 25 days away from the all-important NFL Draft
Life in the NFL will soon slow down.
Front-office members are returning to headquarters for a final set of meetings and no intentions of flying out to another Pro Day. Coaches are splitting attention between prospects and preparing veterans for their offseason program, weeks of basic instruction and workouts. And then, all together, we will wait for the final days before the draft to float by; tumbleweeds of time on the football calendar.
Because at some point, there are diminishing returns to poring over the same film. To comparing the same combine numbers. To reheating and rehashing the same debates over prospects over and over again. It’s time to make a call.
The Patriots are not there yet, but they’re getting close.
In the meantime, here are 25 Patriots thoughts 25 days away from the draft:
1. Draft the quarterback
Don’t overthink it. There are three elite prospects at the top of the draft, the only consistent place to find franchise quarterbacks (the trade and free agency markets don’t exist for franchise quarterbacks). The Patriots need a quarterback and are not returning to contention until they find one.
Lock that player in, sit him if he needs protecting in 2024, and simultaneously develop both that quarterback and the team around him. This is the path.
2. Drake Maye is ideal, odds-on favorite
LSU coach Brian Kelly appeared to slip in an interview this week mentioning his former quarterback, Jayden Daniels, “making plays” for Washington next season. Daniels is the oddson favorite to be the Commanders’ pick at No. 2 overall.
And that leaves the Patriots with … a best-case scenario. Not because North Carolina’s Drake Maye is an appreciably better prospect than Daniels, who has fairly drawn comparisons to Lamar Jackson. The MayeDaniels debate is different strokes for different folks. But the fit Maye offers in cold-weather New England, as a big-bodied, strongarmed quarterback with modern mobility and an alpha personality, is clear. Plus, his profile checks most of the traditional boxes the Patriots’ new braintrust values.
And you should too. He’s accurate, protects the ball, creates plays on his own and layers throws to all levels and corners of the field. If Maye’s footwork needs tightening up, take the time to tighten it.
That’s why Jacoby Brissett is here. To take the hits, and provide the mentorship and steady hand in a locker room destined for a 3-6-win season. Oddsmakers have Maye as the team’s most likely pick at No. 3 overall. The future looks bright.
3. Left tackle hole still, somehow, underrated
Here are the Patriots’ best options at left tackle: exSteelers right tackle Chukwuma Okorafor (who’s only really played left tackle in the preseason), Calvin Anderson (who didn’t play left tackle last year), Vederian Lowe and Conor McDermott.
Yikes.
4. Consensus could be dangerous
The Patriots sent too many people to the most important Pro Days.
Nine — yes, nine — Patriots evaluators traveled to meet with Daniels and Maye around their respective Pro Days. They did so in the name of collaboration and perspective. And, apparently, establish consensus.
From Mayo earlier this week: “One thing that Alonzo Highsmith, one of
our scouts, told me … all the bad picks that he’s seen, it’s really been where everyone wasn’t on the same page. And you would hope that you could get everyone on the same page, coaches and also scouts.”
Here’s the problem: if someone like new quarterbacks coach TC McCartney disagrees on Maye, are the Patriots really going to subject themselves to a hung jury? And not pick a quarterback?
It’s understandable Wolf, Mayo and others want all voices heard. But it sounds like insisting on consensus may keep the Patriots from making the right pick, let alone a pick at all. And this idea of consensus first, getting it right second feels like a version of the perfect being the enemy of the good.
5. QB batting practice
Speaking of Pro Days, no need to evaluate from your couch.
Pro Day passing sessions are essentially batting practice for quarterbacks. There is nothing about those sessions that simulate a game environment. Every quarterback looks his best on his Pro Day, calm, confident and capable.
That is by design.
6. Delay of game?
The Patriots are opening their offseason program on April 8, six days later than teams with first-year head coaches are allowed to invite players back for initial voluntary workouts and meetings.
Most first-year coaches are doing the same (in Carolina, Seattle and Tennessee). Here was Mayo’s explanation at the NFL Annual Meetings: “I just want to make sure that we as coaches are all on the same page before we get with the players. We’ve been a part of situations where you bring different coaches in and this guy has one philosophy, this guy has another philosophy. I just wanted to make sure that the coaches, the staff, we’re all on the same page going forward.”
Considering the Patriots’ crunched schedule and long to-do list — identify a franchise quarterback, wide receiver and left tackle, build an offensive system without those players and minimal available talent, align all underlying techniques and fundamentals for that system taught by assistants pulled from various staffs, establish a new philosophy, roles and more — fine by me.
7. Barmore extension framework
The Patriots are working on a contract extension with fourth-year defensive tackle Christian Barmore, and Jacksonville nose tackle Davon Hamilton’s recent deal may offer a framework.
The comparison is far from a one-for-one, but Hamilton was drafted a year before Barmore (2020), went on Day 2 of his draft and received his extension around this time last year. Like Barmore, Hamilton was not a regular starter prior to his extension. That extension was a three-year, $34.5 million deal, including a $20 million signing bonus and two extra void years for salary cap purposes.
Barmore has several edges over Hamilton at the time of his deal — statistical production, age, draft status — so let’s give him a bump overall. Three years, $41.5 million, including a $23 million signing bonus.
That would make him the 16th-highest paid defensive tackle by total value and average annual value. Winwin.
8. Matt Judon extension
Tack on an extra year, guarantee his $6.5 million salary, add another $3.5 in signing bonus and another $7 million in incentives. Done deal.
9. Underrated roster need: corner
This group remains too small, too shallow and too reliant on Christian Gonzalez emerging as the No. 1 corner we all saw for three-plus games last year.
Three games is a tiny sample, and with Jonathan Jones’ best days behind him, the Patriots probably need a steady No. 2 corner. If Gonzalez gets hurt, or suffers from Year 2 regression, this corner corps is in big trouble.
10. Would the Patriots trade Kyle Dugger?
Dugger remains dissatisfied with the transition tag, a one-year, $13.2 million placeholder that will keep him here in New England. As of late this week, he had not signed the tag.
So what might he fetch in a trade?
Ex-Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, younger, better and playing a more premium position, only fetched a 2025 third-round pick. Part of the trade return includes expected compensation, and Sneed got a $76.4 million bag.
It’s unlikely Dugger commands more than a fourthround value, but if dealing him closes the gap in a draftday trade that allows the Patriots to add an extra firstor second-round pick, would they do it?
(This would be a nonstarter were it not for Jabrill Peppers coming off a career year and Marte Mapu waiting in the wings. But there are three box safeties with space for one or two on the starting defense.)
11. Early breakout player pick
Defensive lineman Keion White is a a second-year edge defender with elite athleticism, a sure path to playing time and a deeper repertoire of pass-rush moves than he started with last sea
son. He is a logical, if not obvious, pick.
Still, I bet he delivers.
12. Breakout player, brave edition
OK, stepping a little further out on the branch: wide receiver Tyquan Thornton.
Another former secondround pick, yes. But Thornton has done nothing, zero, as a pro to prove he’ll live up to his draft status. So why do I kinda, sorta, maybe, maybe not believe?
Thornton has added notable muscle this offseason, and must produce if he hopes to stick in the league past Year 3. A 4.2-second time in the 40-yard dash can only get you by for so long.
13. ‘The Dynasty’ a downer
You’ve heard from Devin McCourty and Rodney Harrison. Matthew Slater and Julian Edelman. Critics, all of them.
Robert Kraft chimed in Tuesday, co-signing on their sentiments, except the unfair portrayal of Bill Belichick. That spoke loudest. And yes, Belichick’s portrayal was, to a degree, unfair.
But here’s the best way I can put it: I looked forward to introducing my wife to the early Patriots dynasty via this docu-series. To explain how and why I got into this business, the teams I followed and the stories I absorbed. I screened the first half of the series myself, and decided I’d continue watching solo.
The doc only got worse. A transparently slanted production with gaping holes. For the fans, ex-Patriots players and coaches, for outsiders, it’s all, simply, too bad.
14. Take it from Scar
Don’t agree?
Here was Patriots Hall of Famer and ex-offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia speaking on “The Dynasty” during a Friday interview with SiriusXM radio: “When I had heard after the first couple of episodes that
they had talked to one coach, I started texting guys and asked Charlie (Weis) if he had been (interviewed) and he said ‘No.’ Then Romeo (Crennel). Then Brad Seely. Those three guys came there and, in the first year, implemented systems on offense, defense and special teams that essentially transcended the next 20 years. … There is some selective journalism here and I don’t like it.”
15. Cash spending check-in
Overall 2024 cash spending: 25th
Overall 2025 cash spending: 31st
Overall 2026 cash spending: 26th
Free-agent total spending: 13th
Free-agent guaranteed spending: 10th
Free-agent first-year cash spending: 7th
16. Over-under oof
After free agency, oddsmakers have posted the Patriots’ over-under win total for next season at 5.5 or 4.5, second-lowest in the league.
Prepare for pain.
17. Top-10 rookies on the schedule
Running through a lastplace schedule, the Patriots should face seven of the top 10 players selected in the draft next season: *Chicago (away), Arizona (away), Los Angeles Chargers (home), Tennessee (away) and New York Jets (home/away).
*The Bears own the No. 1 and No. 9 overall picks.
18. Way-too-early 2025 free agent lookahead
Who will the Patriots target next offseason, when they’re scheduled to lead the NFL in cap space?
Understanding that most free agents at the top of the market are usually removed via the franchise tag or preceding extensions, here are the best free agents the Patriots might pursue based on their current needs and potential interest: quarterback Dak Prescott, wide receivers Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, AmonRa St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Godwin, Marquise Brown and Diontae Johnson, offensive tackles Tristan Wirfs, Garrett Bolles, Carm Robinson, Taylor Decker, Jedrick Wills and Joseph Noteboom, edge rusher Josh Allen,
cornerbacks A.J. Terrell, Calrton Davis, Charvarius Ward and D.J. Reed.
19. No excuses
Robert Kraft claimed he was “unaware of how bad” the team’s weight room and treatment of player families have been, according to the Patriots’ latest NFLPA report card. One problem with that: the Patriots received similarly terrible marks last year.
So there are only two explanations then on Kraft’s answer: he truly didn’t know, or he knew and didn’t care. Either way, it’s bad look, and inexcusable for someone presiding over a supposed firstclass organization.
Kraft did say the team is working to address both issues.
“We’ve had a plan that we put in place where we’re committing to a whole new facility adjacent to ours,” Kraft said. “That has been discussed with the leadership team and a building that will be in excess of $50 million. We have to correct everything.”
20. Sign Wolf longterm
The Patriots should keep their front office together post-draft. The notion that Kraft will evaluate Eliot Wolf after he’s used the No. 3 overall pick and spent hundreds of millions of dollars this offseason — even if that notion only serves to protect the reality the team postponed a “GM” search to satisfy the league’s diversity hiring rules later on — is ridiculous.
Ink Wolf to a long-term deal, and let him continue his rebuild past mid-May, when most key front-office members have expiring contracts.
21. Return the silver pants
Jerod Mayo told reporters he will be introducing the “C” patch on captains’ jerseys this year, a first for the Patriots since the league introduced them more than a decade ago. The Pats shouldn’t stop there.
To mark the start of a new era, as they did after Tom Brady left, they should alter their uniforms. The current set is too bland. Nothing pops. It’s a simple sandwich.
Spice up the jersey and return the gray or silver pants, like the Patriots wore last year in their home upset of the Bills. And bring back the Bledsoe Blues as an alternate!
22. Captain predictions
Kendrick Bourne wants to be a captain next year, and the bet here is he earns the honor as part of Mayo’s culture shift.
Full captain predictions: center David Andrews, tight end Hunter Henry, defensive lineman Deatrich Wise, linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley and safety Jabrill Peppers.
23. Troy Brown, demoted?
The Patriots replaced Troy Brown as their receivers coach with Tyler Hughes, a former quality control assistant (2020-22) who left to take the same job with the University of Washington last year. Brown will now be working in skill development, according to Mayo, who said Monday: “He’ll work with the players. He’ll work with the skill players and also work with the scheme and the offensive side of the ball.”
24. The Book of Belichick
Bill Belichick is reportedly writing a book. The rumor at the NFL Annual Meeting was it would be about leadership, according to NFL reporter Mike Giardi. It doesn’t matter the subject. I’ll put in a pre-order.
Right now.
25. Quote of the Week
“Shout-out to orange juice.” — Patriots coach Jerod Mayo at the NFL Annual Meeting on Monday, referencing a viral 2015 photo of Bill Belichick sipping OJ at the same event