AFTER THE 2024 NFL DRAFT — QB OR NOT
a perfect world, serves to fill roster holes elsewhere. (Not to mention, elite receivers and offensive tackles are now following quarterbacks in that they hardly, if ever, reach the open market anyway.)
And the Patriots, as you may have noticed, are not operating in a perfect world. They are starved for talent, thanks to years of preceding roster rot (including first-round misses at quarterback, wide receiver and offensive tackle, all since 2018). More pointedly, they are starting from scratch at the premium positions, sans newly resigned right tackle Mike Onwenu and 2022 first-round cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
Most cornerstones of any future contender are not on the Patriots’ roster, and may not be in this upcoming draft. And even if the Pats hit on the quarterback and a receiver or an offensive tackle, odds are strong they won’t hit on many, if any, other picks.
Welcome to the draft, and the life of a rebuilding team.
Starting at wideout, the Patriots must find a big-bodied “X” receiver. A player who can win in isolation, boasts plus size and speed. They are stocked in the slot, where DeMario Douglas may soon develop into an above-average starter. Kendrick Bourne and KJ Osborn are reliable starters who can bounce around, but that’s it.
Unless the Patriots trade back into the end of the first round for an offensive tackle – a move that would likely cost them a secondround pick or a package with aggregate value – they will need to unearth a mid-round gem. Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher, who started at right tackle opposite projected top-10 pick Joe Alt the last two years, reportedly took a pre-draft visit Friday. He might be that player, or Yale’s Kiran Amegadjie or Houston’s Patrick Paul or others.
And then there’s the cornerback depth behind Gonzalez, a still slow-footed linebacking corps and edge defender group with top pass rushers Matt Judon and Josh Uche both entering contract years.
Again, the Patriots’ keys are patience and the draft. They should spend in 2025. They must draft well at the end of this month and the end of next offseason. In between, the team must show progress, before making at least a playoff push during the 2025 season.
For now, the odds of hitting on a quarterback, even with a top-3 pick, are in the neighborhood of 30%. And that’s the simplest, most straightforward part of the rebuild.
Last spring, Houston hit the lottery with Stroud, who became the only rookie quarterback to succeed as he did since Andrew Luck led a surprise playoff team in 2012. But the Texans had already completed the hard part: stocking up on extra draft capital, building out a strong offensive line and drafting a worthy receiving corps, including 2021 third-round pick Nico Collins and 2023 rookie Tank Dell. Houston also surrounded him with good coaching, including offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, a Shanahan decisiple, who received headcoaching interviews after his first season as a coordinator.
Two years ago, Houston GM and ex-Patriots executive Nick Caserio more or less started with a bare cupboard. Now, his old colleagues in Foxboro are doing the same.
The clock is ticking, and will restart soon.