Is Nick Pivetta for real? And should
Don’t look now, but the Red Sox might be better than people thought.
Widely projected to finish last for the third straight season, the Red Sox entered Saturday with an impressive 6-2 record and tied for first in the AL East. They have largely taken care of business on their 10-game season-opening west coast road trip, and on Tuesday they’ll finally return home to Fenway Park riding a wave of momentum.
Considering most of the games have started after 9:30 p.m. on the east coast, you’d be forgiven if you haven’t seen it for yourself and maybe have a hard time believing it. So in this week’s mailbag, we dive deep into the pitching staff’s impressive turnaround, how Andrew Bailey has gotten the most out of his guys, what the future might have in store for Nick Pivetta and a couple of other fun topics leading into the home opener.
What in particular is Andrew Bailey doing amidst this unbelievable start on the mound for Sox pitchers? — Jason C.
Since taking over as the Red Sox new pitching coach, Andrew Bailey has helped implement a new program designed to help each pitcher get the most out of their abilities. Though the approach is tailored to each player, the general philosophy boils down to throwing nasty stuff in the strike zone and on having each pitcher throw their best pitches as often as possible.
Basically, the more you pound the strike zone, the less likely it is you’ll walk someone. And the more you throw your best stuff, the less likely it is you’ll get hit.
We can already see the change manifest in which pitches the Red Sox starters are throwing and how often. Brayan Bello, for example, last year threw his four-seam fastball 20.6% of the time despite opposing batters hitting .310 against it. This year he’s almost completely abandoned it, instead relying more heavily on his sinker (42.7%), changeup (32.7%) and slider (24.6%).
We’ve seen a similar dynamic emerge for others as well. Tanner Houck is throwing his sinker and splitter far more often than in the past, pairing the two with his dominant slider as his main offerings, and he’s also sidelined his less effective four-seamer. Garrett Whitlock has dialed back his sinker and introduced a new “bullet slider,” which moves vertically instead of horizontally like his sweeper and has helped the ground ball pitcher evolve into more of a swing-and-miss threat.
It’s obviously way too early to draw any solid conclusions on Bailey’s work, but the early returns have definitely been encouraging. If this improvement proves sustainable, the Red Sox ceiling could prove much higher than anyone thought.
Is it time to acknowledge Nick Pivetta is a solid top of the rotation starter? — Ray C.
Nick Pivetta has always been capable of dominating opposing lineups, and ever since he arrived in 2020 he’s shown flashes of greatness. Consistency has always been his problem, and the big question coming into this season was whether or not he’d be able to maintain the level of performance he displayed late last season.
So far it certainly seems like it.
Since the All-Star Break last year, Pivetta has been one of the most overpowering pitchers in baseball. He was one of only five pitchers in baseball who recorded more than 100 strikeouts in the second half, tallying 102 over his final 73.2 innings, and he did that despite eight of his 16 outings over that stretch coming in relief. He’s carried on those trends this year too, and through two starts he’s allowed only one run over 11 innings (0.82 ERA).
Pivetta has also benefitted from Bailey’s new pitching program just like his rotation-mates, so at this point it’s reasonable to say he’s not the same guy who got bumped from the rotation last May for poor performance. Is Pivetta a solid top of the rotation starter? He’s definitely pitching like one, and if he keeps it up then he’s going to get paid like one when he hits free agency this coming winter.
Is it more likely the Sox extend Pivetta or trade him at the deadline? — @YirmiyahuLaw
Now here’s the multimillion dollar question facing the Red Sox in the near future. Has Pivetta really leveled up and become a front-of-the-rotation guy? And whether he has or not, does he have a future with the organization?
If the Red Sox fall out of the playoff hunt, it’s a lot easier to imagine Pivetta being traded. He could presumably provide a boost to a playoff contender as a rental while allowing the Red Sox to get more value in return than just a compensatory draft pick. If the Red Sox actu