NFL draws a blank as to why scoring is down

At the NFL’s owners meetings last week in New York City, executive vice president of football operations Troy Vincent touted the league’s success and popularity.

“Hey, 91 out of the 100 mostwatched TV shows were football games last year,” he said. “Why? Because of the quality and play of the QB position, from top to bottom.”

That may have been the case in 2021 and in recent seasons. But, in 2022, quarterback play, and offensive play in general, has been decidedly worse through the first six weeks.

As Tom Brady so aptly described it a few weeks ago, “I think there’s a lot of bad football, from what I watch.”

Brady may be overstating it a tad. But the NFL equates entertainment with scoring and the passing game, and those numbers are noticeably down.

Through Week 6, points per game (43.3), passing yards per game (481.9), and passing yards per attempt (7.02) are at their lowest since 2010. Scoring is down 4.5 points per game from this time last year, and 7.5 from 2020.

There have been 77 fewer touchdowns from scrimmage this season compared with last.

And quarterbacks are struggling. The leaguewide passer rating is 88.7, down from 95.2 at this point in 2021 and 94.1 in 2020. The only four quarterbacks with a passer rating better than 100 are Tua Tagovailoa (leading at 109.9), Josh Allen, Geno Smith, and Patrick Mahomes.

Last year through Week 6, there were 12 passers better than 100, and in 2020 there were 11. Russell Wilson had the highest rating in both seasons (125.3 and 129.8).

It’s tempting to equate the struggles to the reduction in preseason games and the number of full-contact practices in training camp, but similar rules were also in place the last two seasons. The 2020 season had no preseason games because of the pandemic and it was the best offensive season in NFL history.

Falcons president Rich McKay,

chairman of the competition committee, said the NFL doesn’t have an explanation for the sudden dip.

“We’ve looked at it in a lot of different ways. I’m not sure that we’ve found a good answer,” McKay said. “Are we worried about it right now? No, I’m not. But I think you get to the end of the year, you get to 41 [points per game], you do want to go back and say, ‘What happened here?’ We’re always willing to make adjustments, because we do want points to be in that sweet zone, which for us is 43-47 [points per game].”

Vincent said red-zone efficiency is partly to blame — teams are converting just 56.3 percent into touchdowns, compared with 61.8 percent at this point last year and 62.6 percent in 2020.

The number of red-zone trips has also decreased — 593 this year, down from 621 and 635 — while punt and field goal attempts are up.

“There may be points left out, so we’ll continue to monitor that,” Vincent said. “Plays, passes, and penalty count is right where we should be, and we’re hoping as we progress through the season, we’ll see that margin of points being scored where we like.”

A handful of noteworthy quarterbacks have seen their numbers plummet this year:

The Rams’ Matthew Stafford’s

passer rating dropped from 116.6 to 84.6 this year. He had 16 touchdowns against four interceptions last year, and this year that ratio is 6-to-8.

The Cardinals’ Kyler Murray saw his passer rating drop from 116.2 to 81.8 (before Thursday’s game), and his touchdown passes decreased from 14 last year to six this year.

Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins and Washington’s Carson Wentz have dropped 18 rating points, and Carolina’s Baker Mayfield dropped 26.

Brady’s passer rating has taken a hit — from 108 last year to 95.1 this year — but his other numbers have nosedived. He is on pace for 4,681 yards and 23 touchdown passes, compared with 5,316 and 43 last year. His 6.7 yards per attempt would be the third lowest of his career. He has thrown a touchdown on 3.2 percent of his passes — a career worst, and down from 6 percent last year.

And no quarterback’s struggles have been more unexpected or pronounced than those of Wilson, whose stats are the worst of his career. Wilson’s quarterback rating dropped from over 125 the past two seasons to 83.4 this year. His completion percentage dropped from 72 percent the last two years to 58.6 this year. In 2020, Wilson started the year with 19 touchdowns and three picks. This year, he has five touchdowns and three picks. The Broncos are last in scoring (15.2 points per game) and in the red zone (three touchdowns in 15 trips).

There may not be a single explanation for the leaguewide struggles. Stafford had offseason elbow surgery and was a spectator for most of training camp. Brady has had a revolving door of offensive linemen and receivers. The Cardinals’ offense is a mess and Murray perhaps needs to study more film. Cousins, Wentz, and Mayfield are learning new offenses.

Joe Burrow (passer rating down by 12 points) missed most of camp following an appendectomy. Aaron Rodgers is learning new receivers. Wilson is struggling with new teammates and a new system under first-year coach Nathaniel Hackett.

“Not everything meshes all at the same time right away,” Wilson said this past week. “That doesn’t mean it’s not going to. When it does, it’s going to be a great thing.”

Historically, scoring and passing numbers generally go down as the weather gets colder. But the NFL would prefer its quarterbacks, and offenses in general, start heating up.