Stars aligning for Brady’s move to Las Vegas
In August, UFC president Dana White casually mentioned on live TV that Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski almost joined the Raiders, not the Buccaneers, in 2020.
“Brady was already looking at houses,” White said. “It was almost a done deal. And at the last minute, [Jon] Gruden blew the deal up and said that he didn’t want [Brady]. And all hell broke loose, man.”
Well, Brady can probably resume his house-hunting trips soon. And all hell may break loose again, but for a different reason. This time, the stars are aligning for Brady and the Raiders to finally get hitched.
The Raiders unofficially announced this past week that their quarterback job will be open in 2023 when they benched Derek Carr for the final two games. Former Patriots backup Jarrett Stidham is in line to get his first two NFL starts.
Brady will be an unrestricted free agent in March. And the Raiders now have a coach — Josh McDaniels — who is likely receptive to having him at quarterback.
Having Brady and Gronkowski on the Raiders, playing nine home games just west of the Las Vegas Strip, would be the biggest party in America. ESPN, NFL Network, and NBC’s “Sunday
Night Football” may as well build studios in Las Vegas.
Let’s break down the Raiders’ fascinating decision with Carr and what it means for the Raiders and Brady:
Benching Carr was first a football decision, more about the long term. Carr, who was a second-round pick in 2014, has started 142 of a possible 144 regular-season games. He’s still a top-24 quarterback and should find a starting job next year. But Carr is just 63-79 and has played in only one playoff game (he would have played in two but broke his leg at the end of the 2016 regular season).
Carr, 31, has been beset by organizational instability, playing for four fulltime head coaches and four offensive coordinators. The switch from Gruden’s offense to McDaniels’s this year hasn’t been kind, as most of his stats are at or near their lowest levels since his rookie season. Carr leads the NFL with 14 interceptions, he is 26th in passer rating (86.3), and 31st in completion percentage (60.8). Most importantly, the Raiders are 6-9 and one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL. The Raiders don’t seem inclined to fire McDaniels after one season, so they are putting the blame squarely on Carr.
“None of us are happy with where we’re at,” McDaniels said.
The Raiders haven’t said anything definitive about Carr’s future, but there is no going back. This move probably explains why Carr was so emotional, to the point of tears, after some of the Raiders’ losses this year. He knew he was on thin ice.
■ Of course, it wasn’t strictly a football decision. As usual, follow the money — in this case, $40.5 million in injury guarantees from the three-year contract extension Carr signed in April.
The contract provided little protection for Carr past 2022, and in reality, was just a one-year pay raise from $19.8 million to $25 million. The contract has only $5.6 million in dead salary-cap money next season, and the Raiders won’t owe Carr another dollar of salary if they trade or release him before his injury guarantees vest on the third day after this February’s Super Bowl ($33 million for 2023 and $7.5 million for 2024). A trade would have to be done in February but wouldn’t be official until March 15, giving the acquiring team about a month to back out of the deal. If Carr gets released, he may have a hard time earning $33 million next season from another team.
■ The Raiders not only benched
Carr, but made him the third-string quarterback and agreed to let him leave the team for the final two weeks, all because of the injury guarantee. The Raiders don’t want him getting hurt in practice, and his presence would only serve as a distraction as Carr is popular in the locker room. Undrafted rookie Chase Garbers will back up Stidham the last two weeks.
■ The other players probably have a bad feeling, as this move likely portends major changes for the Raiders this offseason. They kept together the core of last season’s 10-7 team, one coached by Gruden the first five games and then Rich Bisaccia. But a Raiders executive noted at the Patriots game two weeks ago that the Raiders have a mercenary vibe this year, with about 30 players on one-year contracts because of poor drafts from the previous regime. Don’t be surprised to see McDaniels bring a major overhaul to the roster in 2023.
“Huge draft for us,” the Raiders executive said.
The Raiders’ players have said the right things, but there’s clearly some tension in the room.
“The only thing that’s productive is to support Jarrett going forward,” said tight end Darren Waller.
Receiver Davante Adams wrote on Twitter that Carr is “the reason I’m a Raider” and told reporters, “I’m not going to sit here and go on and on, but obviously I support my guy.”
Adams may not throw a huge fuss, though. Although he has 88 catches for 1,290 yards and 12 touchdowns, Adams has caught just 55 percent of his targets, down from 72.8 percent and 77.2 percent the last two years with Aaron Rodgers. It speaks to Carr’s erratic play.
■ The 49ers, Buccaneers, and a few other teams will likely be in the running for Brady, but Las Vegas looks like a perfect landing spot. He can play home games in a dome. The weather is warm. He’s closer to his parents in California. There is very little local media presence. Every home game will be a spectacle. Mark Davis will probably give Brady whatever he wants. The idea of throwing to Adams, Waller, and Hunter Renfroe (and probably Gronkowski) has to be appealing.
■ If Brady doesn’t end up with the Raiders, Jimmy Garoppolo certainly makes sense, though his injury history has to scare teams. There are rumors of the Patriots trading Mac Jones to the Raiders, but I don’t think a) the Raiders view him as much of an upgrade to Carr, if at all, and b) I have doubts that the Patriots want to give up on Jones and his uber-cheap contract. The Raiders also currently have the No. 9 draft pick. Signing Brady or Garoppolo wouldn’t preclude them from drafting and developing a quarterback.
■ These last two games are a nice opportunity for Stidham, the fourthyear pro who was a Patriots fourthround pick in 2019. Stidham has never started an NFL game, and is just 32 for 61 for 342 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in his career. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent after this season and fortunate to now get a two-game audition. Unfortunately, his first start comes Sunday against the 49ers and their No. 1-ranked defense. Good luck, kid.