Sizing up potential first-round playoff foes

Their first-round opponent yet to be determined, and dates for their first two home games hermetically sealed in the mayonnaise jar that sits on Funk & Wagnalls’ porch, the Bruins still will have tiny bits of mystery left in their regular season leading up to taking on the Flyers on Sunday night in Philadelphia.

They at least know, provided they survive Round 1, that they’ll face either the Maple Leafs or Lightning for a chance to reach the Eastern Conference finals. That either/or was inked into the schedule some 10 days ago.

Such is life in the NHL’s divisioncentric playoff format: a team can zero in more closely and with greater assuredness on the opponent in Round 2 than the one, two, three, maybe even four candidates that pose the more imminent danger in the first-round bestof-seven matchup.

These are the kind of mathematical complexities typically reserved this time of year for when we stare blankly at our IRS tax forms. Makes no sense. No one to call to make it all clear. But here we are.

Entering weekend play, the Panthers, Islanders, and Penguins remained in a spirited game of three-card monte (no relation to the Bruins coach) to sort out the two wild-card spots in the East. The Bruins, parked at No. 1 in the East with hands around their Presidents’ Trophy, ultimately will face the No. 8 seed, a matter possibly not finalized until the Bruins end the regular season Thursday night in Montreal.

In the meantime, let’s drill down on the three would-be opponents, all of whom the Bruins handled quite capably in the regular season.

The Bruins went 3-0-0 vs. the Islanders, 3-0-0 vs. the Penguins, and 2-1-1 vs. the Panthers, who only 10 days ago looked to be cooked. But then ex-Yale goalie Alex Lyon stepped in, rattled off five consecutive wins, and boosted the South Floridians into the top wild-card spot as of Friday morning. Prior to that stretch, Lyon was 10-10-4 since breaking into the NHL in 2017-18.

Of the three potential opponents, it could be the Islanders, even with

Mathew Barzal’s return iffy, that would present the Bruins the stiffest test. They have solid structure front to back, especially since acquiring Bo Horvat as their No. 1 center in a Jan. 30 trade with Vancouver. Above all, they have topnotch netminding with Ilya Sorokin at No. 1, backed by Semyon Varlamov.

Barzal, who returned to light skating last weekend, was injured here Feb. 18 when then-soon-to-be-ex-Bruin Craig Smith crunched him into the sidewall inside the Islanders’ defensive zone.

The slick forward has not played since.

In four games with Barzal riding on his wing, Horvat scored three goals, the duo showing precisely the kind of chemistry that Lou Lamoriello envisioned in the high-end swap that sent

Anthony Beauvillier and a first-round pick to the Canucks. If not for the deal, the Islanders were on a bee line for a second straight playoff DNQ. Last spring’s swing and miss cost Barry

Trotz his job behind the bench. Another DNQ could send Lamoriello packing.

Of the three clubs in the mix, the Sorokin-Varlamov duo is the closest answer any of them have to the Linus Ullmark-Jeremy Swayman give-a-guy-ahug combo. Ullmark was in net for all three wins vs. the Islanders and gave up only six goals on 80 shots (.925 save percentage).

Sorokin, now in his third season, remained in Russia and played for CSKA Moscow for six more season years after the Islanders drafted him in 2014. Entering Friday, he was 29-21-7 and his save percentage (.924) ranked third among the 26 goalies with at least 20 wins. Ullmark remained at the top with a career-best .937.

Next in line for degree of difficulty: the Panthers.

Last season’s Presidents’ Trophy winners, even with prized acquisition

Matthew Tkachuk delivering full value (105 points prior to facing the Capitals Saturday), have been on the outside looking in for virtually the entire season. Goaltending has been the No. 1 bugaboo.

Veteran Sergei Bobrovsky, who returned to form (39 wins) last season, reverted to the milquetoast form he displayed through most of his first two seasons in Sunrise. Then Spencer Knight, a lackluster 9-8-3, on Feb. 24 entered treatment in the Player Assistance Program for an indefinite period. The 21-year-old former Boston College standout remains out, leaving coach

Paul Maurice with little option but to hand the job to Lyon.

Bobrovsky lost three consecutive starts (Leafs, Rangers, Senators) at the end of March, surrendering 13 goals, prior to Lyon going on his stellar run. In a duel Tuesday night with ex-Northeastern standout Devon Levi, Lyon turned away 39 shots in a 2-1 win over the Sabres. In his five straight wins, he surrendered only seven goals, delivering the most inspirational backstopping the Panthers have had all season. Just in time.

Lyon, 30, never has logged a second of NHL playoff action. But in a season all but washed down the 24-square-foot storm drain that has been the Panthers net, it looks like Maurice has little option but to go with him.

Finally, the Penguins. Hard to fathom a club captained by Sidney Crosby as the potential soft touch in a threeteam scrum, but the NHL’s other blackand-gold entry too often has looked tired and out of answers since posting their last back-to-back wins (FlyersRangers) in mid-March.

The Penguins were rubbed out easily Tuesday night by the resurgent Devils, 5-1, a dispiriting loss that dipped them 1 point out of a wild-card spot behind the Panthers and Islanders. That left them 4-8-0 since those back-to-back wins, a stretch in which they were outscored, 44-32. Their 4-1 win over the Wild on Thursday kept them within a point.

For a club with a high-scoring pedigree, the Penguins just don’t score enough and give up far too many. As of Friday morning, they ranked No. 19 in both categories. Most troubling of all, their season goal differential stood at minus-2, a reflection on spotty defense and spottier goaltending.

Tristan Jarry, their No. 1 goalie, went into Saturday’s game with the Red Wings carrying a 2.94 goals-against average and .909 save percentage. Not Let’em-in-Lacher horrible, but rather pedestrian numbers to backstop a club that hasn’t produced the kind of scoring bang that has been central to why Pittsburgh entered the season with a league-best 16 consecutive years of playoff qualification.

Now they have just a few games to button up that hole in net and find some scoring touch, or the streak ends here.