Leak shows Taiwan vulnerable to Chinese attack
Documents detail officials’ doubts about air defenses
Taiwan is unlikely to thwart Chinese military air superiority in a cross-strait conflict, while tactics such as China’s use of civilian ships for military purposes have eroded US spy agencies’ ability to detect a pending invasion, according to leaked Pentagon assessments that contain troubling details about the selfgoverned island’s ability to fend off war.
The assessments state that Taiwan officials doubt their air defenses can “accurately detect missile launches,” that barely more than half of Taiwan’s aircraft are fully mission capable, and that moving the jets to shelters would take at least a week — a huge problem if China launched missiles before Taiwan had a chance to disperse those planes.
The classified documents addressing a potential conflict suggest China’s air force would have a much better shot at establishing early control of the skies — a strategy that Taipei itself believes will underpin an attack — than Russia did in Ukraine.
The document leak, which first came to authorities’ attention last week, has provided extensive insight into US intelligence activities worldwide. Many of the several hundred assessments that have surfaced thus far date to February and March; they first appeared on the Discord messaging platform before spreading elsewhere online. Both the Pentagon, where many of the materials appear to have originated this year, and the Justice Department are investigating the security breach.
The FBI arrested its primary suspect, 21-year-old member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard Jack Teixeira, on Thursday afternoon.
The revelations about Taiwan’s readiness come as US-China relations are at their lowest point in decades and concerns continue to grow about a potential conflict between Taipei and the People’s Liberation Army, China’s fast-modernizing military that is roughly 14 times the size of its neighbor’s force.
One assessment notes that the PLA’s modernization, its heightened operations tempo, and the use of civilian ferries in exercises in the Eastern Theater Command near Taiwan are “eroding” the US intelligence community’s ability to detect abnormal activity and preparations for “an attack on Taiwan.”
Another assessment takes aim at Taiwan’s military and civilian preparedness. It says the island’s current doctrine of firing two air defense missiles per target “would be strained under high-volume PLA fires” from China’s short-range ballistic missile system, dispersed across multiple moving launch platforms. Taiwanese airmen train for shooting at single unmoving targets.
Moreover, Pentagon analysts note, Taiwan’s missile warning drills are highly scripted and inadequate for steeling civil authorities and the public for “a real-world event.”
Though far from a comprehensive analysis of China’s capabilities and Taiwan’s vulnerabilities, the documents collectively paint a grimmer picture of Taiwan’s overall readiness. They also serve as a warning to policymakers that China’s aggression is becoming more intense even as its intentions become less predictable.
A spokesperson for the Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff declined to comment. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that it “respects outside opinions about its military preparedness” and that its defense systems are “carefully constructed based on enemy threats.” The ministry added: Taiwan’s response to recent Chinese military exercises showed that officers are “absolutely capable, determined, and confident” in ensuring security.
CIA Director William J. Burns has said Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed that his military be capable of seizing Taiwan by the PLA’s centennial in 2027. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he will deploy troops then or at any other time, Burns hastened to add, saying he believes Xi and his military leadership have doubts about whether an invasion would be successful. The Russians’ experience in Ukraine has “probably reinforced some of those doubts as well,” Burns told CBS’ “Face the Nation” in February.
General Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in November that the Pentagon is working to make sure that Taipei can defend itself and that the US military is prepared should the island be invaded.
Milley pointed out that the Chinese military hasn’t seen combat since the 1970s and would be playing a “very, very dangerous game” if it attacks Taiwan. Subduing the 23 million people there and negotiating mountainous terrain would be extremely difficult, he said, and drew parallels to the Russian invasion of Ukraine — an ongoing conflict that has left hundreds of thousands of soldiers and civilians dead or wounded.
Indeed, China’s ability to mount an amphibious attack would be hampered by limited options for delivering gasoline to its fuel-hungry landing brigade, according to one of the leaked documents. That would make it difficult to sustain a foothold on Taiwan, creating an opportunity for the United States and Taiwan to thwart an invasion at an early stage, the assessment noted.
Yet as difficult as an assault on Taiwan would be for China, Pentagon intelligence analysts have detected a number of deficits in Taipei’s planning.
One concern is that officials might withhold air defense systems early in a conflict to save them for later. Independent analysts consider such a delay problematic since China has almost 40 air bases within striking range of Taiwan.
In an oblique criticism, one document says Taiwan’s air defense commanders “may hesitate to engage manned aircraft due to fear of escalation, even with first strike orders or imminent air threats.”'
“We can't fire the first shot,” explained Chang Yan-ting, a retired Taiwan Air Force deputy commander. “We are not allowed to throw a punch until we get hit. In any emergency, we are bound hand and foot because we set advanced limits on ourselves about when to respond.”