US spies learned in mid-June Prigozhin plotting uprising

US spy agencies picked up intelligence in mid-June indicating Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin was planning armed action against the Russian defense establishment — which he has long accused of bungling the war in Ukraine — and urgently informed the White House and other government agencies so they were not caught off-guard, several US officials said Saturday.

The exact nature and timing of Prigozhin’s plans were not clear until shortly before his stunning takeover of a military command and tank run toward Moscow on Friday and Saturday, officials said. But “there were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership ... that something was up,” said one official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity citing the matter’s sensitivity. “So I think they were ready for it.”

Over the last two weeks there was “high concern” about what might transpire — whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would remain in power and what any instability might mean for control of Russia’s nuclear arsenal, the official said. “There were lots of questions along those lines,” this person said.

The instability that might result from a Russian “civil war” was the key fear, officials said. In addition to the White House, senior officials at the Pentagon, State Department, and in Congress were briefed within the last two weeks on the intelligence, officials said.

A key trigger for Prigozhin, officials said, was a June 10 Russian Defense Ministry order that all volunteer detachments would have to sign contracts with the government. Though the order did not mention Wagner by name, the implication was clear: a takeover of Prigozhin’s mercenary troops, who have proved essential to Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine and have helped secure some of its most notable tactical victories.

Prigozhin is commonly known as “Putin’s chef ” owing to his Kremlin catering contracts, and as a master internet propagandist, who is under criminal indictment in the United States for allegedly interfering in the 2016 presidential election.

In Ukraine, Wagner fighters were able to prevail in the long, bloody battle for the city of Bakhmut only at tremendous cost — 20,000 dead by Prigozhin's public count, a figure the Ukrainian official found credible. Throughout the fighting, Prigozhin furiously complained that the Russian ministry of defense wasn’t giving him the equipment and supplies he needed to fight. He had threatened to pull out his forces all together. The leaked documents show senior Russian leaders privately fretting about Prigozhin's rhetorical attacks, which they found both credible and undermining of their authority.

“Tensions between the Wagner Group and the Russian Ministry of Defense are no secret," said a senior administration official, who did not comment on US intelligence. “We have all seen Mr. Prigozhin publicly criticize, warn, and even threaten the Russian military on any number of occasions.”

US intelligence agencies believe that Putin also was informed that Prigozhin was plotting something.

It remains unclear why Putin did not take action to thwart Prigozhin’s takeover of the military command or his move on Moscow.