Sizing up Patriots, rivals in rugged AFC East
When NFL training camps kick off at the end of the month, the Patriots will gear up for what they hope is a bounceback season. As coach Bill Belichick and director of player personnel Matt Groh retool the roster and coaching staff, owner Robert Kraft recently sounded encouraged about the upcoming year.
“I’m really optimistic about the team,” he said.
Returning to the top is going to be quite the challenge for the Patriots, who are 25-25 in the three seasons following Tom Brady’s departure. Kraft has expressed his displeasure with the records, postseason absences, and divisional finishes.
Based on projected win totals for 2023, the Patriots have the toughest strength of schedule in the league. Vegas oddsmakers currently list New England’s over/under win total at 7.5. A couple of notable matchups this year include the season opener against the Eagles and a December date with the defending Super Bowl champion
Chiefs.
As always, though, everything starts within the AFC East.
“I think we have the most difficult division in the NFL, the best balance of teams,” Kraft said.
Let’s take a look at the biggest question facing each team.
Starting with the Patriots . . .
▪ Can they count on their offense? Putting senior football adviser Matt Patricia in charge of the offense last year did not pan out for Belichick, as New England ranked at the bottom of the league in multiple important statistical categories (yards per game, red zone scoring percentage, third down conversion percentage, and offensive touchdowns per game).
The dysfunctional and unreliable offense featured plenty of head-scratching play calls and three-and-out drives, often letting down the high-performing defense. By the season’s end, quarterback Mac Jones could not hide his frustration.
With Patricia out and new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien in, players have praised the change and embraced the clean slate. Training camp practices will be much more informative, and O’Brien seems to have instilled an early level of confidence.
“Everybody’s on the same page,” wide receiver Kendrick Bourne said. “You can feel the growth already, so that’s the most exciting part. I feel like we’re going to know exactly what we’re doing and who we are.”
The Patriots have an easy scapegoat to explain away last season’s offensive woes, but the addition of O’Brien alone isn’t going to magically fix the offense.
Jones will need to step up, too. He may be playing with some extra motivation, as the Patriots have to decide by May 2024 if they want to exercise the fifth-year option on his rookie contract. Questions also remain about the viability of the offensive line and the need for an explosive playmaker.
The Patriots have the potential to bolster the offense by signing free agent wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who visited with the team in June. Adding Hopkins would not only boost New England’s receiving room, which likely ranks last in the division, but also provide a comprehensive evaluation of Jones.
The Patriots could consider signing running back Dalvin Cook. Third-year back Rhamondre Stevenson is their only proven rusher, with 2022 draft picks Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong in line for potentially larger roles. Cook, who turns 28 in August, logged at least
1,000 rushing yards and six touchdowns in each of his last four seasons, and would help lighten Stevenson’s workload.
Even if the Patriots do not sign Hopkins or Cook, the pressure is on the offense to contribute its share this season, especially because the majority of the starting defense is returning.
As for the rest of the division . . .
▪ Buffalo: Can the Bills finally get over the hump?
Even though the Bills have finished atop the AFC East for three straight seasons, their sights have been set on a much larger goal. With an elite quarterback-wide receiver tandem and strong defense, the Bills showed the league they’re ready to contend for a championship by going toe-to-toe with Kansas City in an epic overtime battle in January 2022.
Last season ended in disappointment, however, as the preseason Super Bowl favorites scored just 10 points against Cincinnati in the divisional round. The lasting image from the loss showed star wide receiver Stefon Diggs raising his arms up at Josh Allen on the sideline.
The drama seemed to carry over into minicamp but the Bills, with little depth at receiver, need Diggs to buy in. He is essential to their postseason goals. If Buffalo gets off to a slow start, there is a non-zero chance his frustration boils over.
▪ Miami: Will the Dolphins be able to capitalize on their personnel moves?
There’s no shortage of starpower on the roster.
The team is clearly pushing its chips in to win now. A year after trading for wide receiver Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins continued to take big offseason swings, this time acquiring cornerback Jalen Ramsey. The talented veteran duo of Ramsey and Xavien Howard will anchor Miami’s secondary, along with young safety Jevon Holland.
The team also paid big bucks to hire Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. Fangio is familiar with one of the team’s high-profile players, linebacker Bradley Chubb, whom he coached for three seasons in Denver.
The beefed-up defense is certainly a plus, but Miami’s success ultimately hinges on the status of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa couldn’t finish last season after suffering multiple concussions, but looked effective when healthy. If he can maintain that level of play for an entire season, the loaded Dolphins should be in great shape.
▪ New York: Does Aaron Rodgers
have enough in the tank?
The Jets have plenty of young talent, with cornerback Sauce Gardner, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and running back Breece Hall emerging as productive contributors from the 2022 draft class.
Like the Dolphins, New York’s success is largely dependent on the quarterback position. The Jets hope Rodgers can free them from their bottom-dweller status, while Rodgers hopes to solidify his legacy away from Green Bay.
Patriots schedule is right up there
The Buffalo News power ranked the Bills’ road trips for the 2023 season, so I decided to do the same for the Patriots. In order of best to worst . . .
1. vs. Indianapolis, at Germany, Nov. 12
The opponent leaves a bit to be desired, but this game is easily the top choice. The Patriots are scheduled to play in Germany for the first time, at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt. The team should receive a warm welcome, given the organization’s ties to Germany (shoutout to 2009 second-round pick Sebastian Vollmer) as well as the country’s fervent interest in the sport.
If the demand for last year’s game between Tampa Bay and Seattle was an indication, the atmosphere will be lively. The Patriots are undefeated in three international games. Tickets go on sale July 11.
2. at New York Jets, Sept. 24
The first road game is a divisional bout in Week 3. At this point in the season, there still will be a great deal of intrigue because both teams could be searching for their first win.
Proximity, kickoff time (1 p.m.), and weather also make this game a top choice. The train from Penn Station to the Meadowlands makes it easy to get to MetLife Stadium from Manhattan, if you prefer to stay in New York City and/ or don’t want to make the drive.
3. at Dallas, Oct. 1
They say everything is bigger in Texas. AT&T Stadium is the largest NFL stadium by square footage and the second largest dome in the world, behind Singapore National Stadium. Once inside, the massive video board, which broke the world record for largest video display at the time it was built, is a sight to behold on its own.
The sheer size of the venue can make Jerry World a bucket list item for avid sports fans, but the matchup should be compelling as well. In 2021, the last time the Patriots played the Cowboys, the teams scored a combined 23 points in the final 2½ minutes of regulation and overtime. That game was at Gillette Stadium.
4. at Las Vegas, Oct. 15
The Patriots are headed back to Las Vegas, a destination in itself and a city they’ve become familiar with over the past year. Josh McDaniels and the Raiders have continued to sign a number of ex-Patriots, most recently quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, so this Week 6 game will have no shortage of friendly faces.
5. at Miami, Oct. 29
A Week 8 trip to Miami is rare because the Patriots often play the Dolphins at the beginning and end of the season. Visiting Florida in October doesn’t offer the same respite as in December, but perhaps the schedule shakeup will help the Patriots break their streak of losses at Hard Rock Stadium. New England is 2-8 in its last 10 visits.
6. Joint practices and preseason game vs. Green Bay, Aug. 16-19
Yes, there are still four games to go, but if you ever wanted to visit Lambeau Field, this summer is a great opportunity. The Patriots will visit Wisconsin for two joint practices, which are free and open to the public, as well as their second preseason game, which will cost a fraction of a regular-season ticket. Green Bay isn’t as cosmopolitan as Vegas or Miami, but historic Lambeau Field is worthy of a trip for any fan.
7. at New York Giants, Nov. 26
The Patriots will get an extra trip to MetLife Stadium this year thanks to their Week 12 game against the Giants. The weather at the end of November won’t be as ideal as at the end of September, but proximity and kickoff time once again make this trip doable. The Sunday after Thanksgiving might make traveling more of a headache than the average weekend, however.
8. Joint practices and preseason game vs. Tennessee, Aug. 22-25
Joint practices generate the most excitement during training camp, but there are none in Foxborough this season, so Patriots fans will have to hit the road to catch any of those sessions. Nissan Stadium doesn’t have the appeal as Lambeau Field, but the Titans have former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel
and Nashville has a lot to offer outside of football. Plus, the starters typically play the most during the third preseason game.
9. at Buffalo, Dec. 31
The Patriots’ past three games in Buffalo have come in December or January, making for some chilly visits. If grandiose New Year’s Eve plans are important, then Buffalo might not be the ideal spot. Highmark Stadium boasts an awesome atmosphere, though, even in the cold. And if this Week 17 game has significant divisional or postseason implications, it could easily shoot up the rankings.
10. at Pittsburgh, Dec. 7
This game could have ranked much higher if it weren’t on a Thursday in December. Acrisure Stadium is one of the few road venues on the schedule that you can walk to from downtown. The yellow bridges also make for a nice view. But the Steelers-Patriots rivalry has lost considerable steam, even with Belichick and Mike Tomlin still in charge. Now that “Thursday Night Football” games can be flexed, moving this Week 14 game to Sunday would not be surprising, either.
11. at Denver, Dec. 24
This game could have ranked much higher if it weren’t for the date. A “Sunday Night Football” showdown against Sean Payton and Russell Wilson? Both the Patriots and the Broncos could be angling for a playoff berth, so the stakes could be high in Week 16.
Extra points
A small detail to watch as the Jack Jones proceedings play out: He does not have a passport. If Jones had a passport, he would have had to surrender it. If Jones acquires a passport, he will have to turn it over unless a judge deems otherwise. Should Jones remain on the team and be eligible to play in Week 10 in Germany, he still may not be able to go, depending on the status of his legal situation . . . DeAndre Hopkins had something to say about his visit to Boston, but his remarks had nothing to do with the Patriots. On Thursday, Hopkins took to social media to share that he accidentally ate pork for the first time in eight years because he ordered clam chowder while in Boston. “Somebody should’ve told me it’s bacon chowder,” he wrote . . . According to the NFL’s training camp locations, the Patriots are one of just four teams to hold their practices at their stadium. The Cardinals, Bengals, and Packers are the others; all other teams host their training camp at practice facilities or thirdparty locations (i.e. colleges) . . . Tickets for soccer star Lionel Messi’s debut with his MLS team, Inter Miami, are currently more expensive than every regular-season NFL game except for one: Patriots-Eagles in Week 1, when the Patriots will be honoring Tom Brady
. . . The photos from Michael Rubin’s
celeb-filled “White Party” captivated the Internet, and retired Patriots safety Devin McCourty shared a star-studded photograph of his own. The selfie features McCourty, Brady, and Mac Jones
— all sporting smiles. The date and location of the photo are unclear.