Bergeron’s case was rare, indeed
It doesn’t really take a deep forensic dive into the NHL Draft to know that
Patrice Bergeron, the 45th pick in 2003, was the rare case of a player emerging from a humble draft profile to the front door of the Hockey Hall of Fame (check this space regularly for ticket information regarding the 2026 induction ceremony in Toronto).
Nonetheless, some fun with numbers, pertaining to five slices of the draft, 1983, ’88, ’93, ’98, and ’03, as a means to demonstrate how infrequently a player enjoys a career of 1,000-plus games after being selected 45th or later in the draft.
A recap of the five drafts:
1983 (242 draftees): No. 1, Brian Lawton, Minnesota, 483 games. Of the eight players who played 1,000-plus games, only four were selected No. 45 or later. Leading the way: Marc Bergevin, No. 59, Chicago, 1,191 games.
1988 (252 draftees): No. 1, Mike Modano, Minnesota, 1,499 games. Of the 13 who played 1,000-plus games, only five were chosen No. 45 or later. Leading the way: Mark Recchi, No. 67, Pittsburgh, 1,652 games.
1993 (286 draftees): No. 1, Alexandre Daigle, Ottawa, 616 games. Of the 15 who played 1,000-plus games, only seven were chosen No. 45 or later. Leading the way: Todd Marchant, No. 164, Rangers, 1,195 games.
1998 (258 draftees): No. 1 Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay, 1,212 games. Of the 12 who played 1,000-plus games, only five were chosen No. 45 or later. Leading the way: Brad Richards,
Tampa Bay, No. 64, 1,126 games.
2003 (292 draftees): No. 1 Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh, 985 games. Of the 16 thus far to play 1,000-plus games, only three were selected No. 45 or later: Leading the way: Bergeron, No. 45, Boston, 1,294 games, followed by Joe Pavelski, No. 205, San Jose, 1,250 games.
In those five drafts, of 1,330 draftees, a total of 64 (4.81 percent) played 1,000 games. And only 24 (1.8 percent) were selected No. 45 or later. Perhaps the most sobering stat of all: 836 of the 1,330 picks, accounting for 62.9 percent, logged between zero and 10 career NHL games. That’s nearly a twothirds failure rate across the entire field.
Even worse, the failure rate (0-10 games) for those selected 45th or later: 73.5 percent.
In those five draft classes, Recchi and Rob Blake, chosen No. 70 by the Kings in ’88, are the only two players selected 45th or later yet be inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame.