Ukrainian gains ‘tactically significant’
Military advance compels Russia to redirect forces
KYIV — After months of inching through minefields, villages, and open steppes in grueling combat, Ukrainian forces are making somewhat bigger advances along two major lines of attack, according to analysts, Ukrainian officials, and Russian military bloggers.
The amount of territory seized, 10 to 12 miles on both vectors of attack, while relatively small, is important in that it is compelling Russia to divert forces from other parts of the front line, military analysts say. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, called the advances “tactically significant,” saying Moscow’s redeployment “will likely further weaken Russian defensive lines in aggregate,” creating “opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive.”
The Ukrainian military launched the counteroffensive this summer amid high hopes of duplicating its stunning sweep through the Kharkiv region last September. But those hopes were dashed amid heavy losses, causing commanders to change strategy from head-on assaults to a war of attrition, content to make steady, small gains while conserving resources and degrading those of the Russians.
And even as Ukrainian soldiers battle in trenches and on the field, the campaign to sever Russian supply lines continues, with Ukrainian missiles and drones targeting sites far from the front lines.
Explosions again echoed Saturday as the Russian military said it had shot down two Ukrainian missiles targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge, a vital Russian link to the occupied Crimean Peninsula that Kyiv has vowed to keep attacking until it is unusable.
Video broadcast on Russian and Ukrainian state news media showed smoke billowing over the span, although the Russians said that was just a smoke screen intended to protect the bridge.
The Russian Ministry of Defense said Ukrainian forces attacked the bridge with two S200 surface-to-air missiles with a range of just under 200 miles. Sergei Aksyonov, the top Russian-installed official in Crimea, said the bridge was not damaged. The Russian accounts could not be independently verified, and Ukrainian officials did not immediately comment.
The Russian Defense Ministry said its forces also thwarted an attack by 20 Ukrainian drones overnight.
Fourteen drones were shot down by Russian air defenses and a six were jammed electronically, the ministry said in a Telegram post. No casualties or damage were reported. Kyiv officials neither confirmed nor denied Ukraine’s involvement in the attacks.
In the ground war, Ukrainians are advancing south along two principal lines of attack: through the eastern village of Staromaiorske toward the Russian-occupied city of Berdiansk, a port on the Sea of Azov; and farther west toward the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, a vital transportation hub near the coast and less than 60 miles south.
Ukrainian forces have progressed about 10 to 12 miles along both lines from their starting places at the onset of the counteroffensive in early June. Ukraine’s goal is to reach the Sea of Azov and drive a wedge into the so-called land bridge between Russia and Crimea, which is vital to the Russian military’s supply routes to the west.
Military analysts caution that Ukrainian forces still face a long, slow, and bloody slog against Russian troops positioned behind well-designed and fortified defenses. They cite a host of factors, such as supplies of ammunition and other materiel as well as troop morale, that will determine how the fighting plays out over coming months. But it is hard to analyze those elements, they say, given the disinformation and limited real information issued by both armies.
Even if Ukraine’s forces manage to break through Russia’s first line of defense, analysts note, Moscow has had many months to prepare the most formidable fortified defensive positions since World War II — a series of trenches, tank-traps, vast minefields, machine gun nests, attack helicopters and other air support. Ukraine has struggled, even with Western weapons, to overcome those obstacles, particularly the minefields.
Still, Britain’s military intelligence agency said Saturday that Russia’s forces had faced “particularly intense attrition and heavy combat on the front line.”
At the same time, Russian forces are mounting their own offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine around the city of Kupiansk. By forcing Ukraine to defend there, military analysts say, Russia is most likely trying to draw Ukrainian forces from other areas where they are on the offensive.
In one of the two main lines of attack, the one aimed at the coastal port of Berdiansk, Ukraine has consolidated gains around the ruined village of Staromaiorske, which it recaptured in late July, and appears to be pushing farther south to the Russian stronghold of Urozhaine, according to the Ukrainian military and military analysts.
Ukraine has devoted thousands of soldiers, including some of its most experienced and battle-hardened marines, and armor to the campaign drive going south down the 10mile-wide Mokri Yaly River Valley.
If the soldiers can manage to push through or around Urozhaine, that will put them within 50 miles of the two major port cities of Berdiansk and Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. And with each mile they advance, Ukrainian forces put more pressure on the Russian supply lines.
Hanna Malyar, a Ukrainian deputy defense minister, said Friday that her country’s forces had achieved “partial successes” in the direction of Urozhaine and south and southeast of Staromaiorske.
The Russian Vostok Battalion, a military outfit fighting in the area, reported Friday that “artillery from both sides plowed up the neighborhood of Urozhaine so much that some positions were abandoned by us, but the enemy did not dare to claim them either.”
More fighting was reported Saturday morning by Russian military bloggers as the city remained fiercely contested.
Along the line of attack in the direction of Melitopol, Ukrainian forces reported hard-fought battles but steady progress around the village of Robotyne.
The Institute for the Study of War said of that fight, “The Ukrainian forces’ ability to advance to the outskirts of Robotyne — which Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, time, and resources to defend — remains significant even if Ukrainian gains are limited at this time.”
Material from the Associated Press was used in this report.