Much has changed for Patriots, Bills
PATRIOTS at BILLS WHEN: Sunday, 1 p.m. WHERE: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y. TV, RADIO: CBS, WBZ-FM (98.5) LINE: Bills by 14
A serious yet lighthearted, nostalgia-tinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup . . .
It’s crazy — even by the life-comes-at-you-fast standards of the NFL — how much has changed since the Patriots knocked off the Bills, 2925, back in Week 7.
Mac Jones completed 25 of 30 passes for 272 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions and, almost unbelievably, “made better decisions than his Bills counterpart, Josh Allen,” according to the assessment in this space after the game.
What else? Jones threw a strike — not an alley-oop, as he would do on a brutal interception in similar circumstance in the Week 10 loss to the Colts — for the winning touchdown to Mike Gesicki. Kendrick
Bourne led the Patriots with six catches for 63 yards and a touchdown. Jack Jones was still here. James Cook was still a Ken Dorsey afterthought.
Any hope that the victory — the Patriots’ second of the season — would lead to a turnaround and perhaps a playoff push has long since dissipated. Mac Jones lost his job to the limited-but-impressive Bailey
Zappe, Bourne was one of several key Patriots lost to injury, and the Patriots’ mission has been to save face and their dignity rather than tank for the best draft pick.
Meanwhile, the Bills changed offensive coordinators, Allen got his mojo back, and Cook emerged as one of the conference’s most dynamic running backs. The Bills still have a chance to win the AFC East title, and they will be the proverbial team no one wants to play should they make the postseason.
Kick it off, Ryland, and let’s get this one started . . .
Three players to watch
Christian Barmore: The third-year defensive tackle’s leap from a promising if inconsistent player to an All-Pro candidate actually began with the Patriots’ Week 7 win over the Bills. He did not fill up the stat sheet that day, finishing with three tackles and the Patriots’ lone sack, but he consistently chased Allen out of the pocket and tied up multiple blockers on running plays, allowing linebackers Ja’Whaun Bentley and Anfernee Jennings to combine for 15 tackles.
Before that matchup, Barmore totaled one sack, 14 tackles, two tackles for loss, and one quarterback hit through six games. In the Patriots’ last eight games, these are his stats: 7½ sacks, 34 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, and 14 QB hits. That stat line looks like it was plucked off of Aaron Donald’s Pro-footballreference.com page.
Barmore was at his best on Christmas Eve against the Broncos, sacking Russell Wilson three times, all in the third quarter, while also contributing a team-leading eight tackles — two for loss — and four QB hits. Should Barmore compile 1½ sacks Sunday, he’ll become the seventh Patriots defensive lineman to collect 10 in a season. Should he compile three sacks for the second straight game, he’ll be the first Patriot to do so since Hall of Famer Andre Tippett against the Cowboys and Colts during the 1987 season.
James Cook: Allen has played better since the Bills fired Dorsey after their Week 10 loss to the Broncos on “Monday Night Football” and replaced him with Joe Brady. But the biggest beneficiary of the change has been Cook, the second-year running back out of Georgia and brother of former Vikings star and current Jets nonentity Dalvin Cook.
Cook did have a couple of big games while Dorsey was running the offense, including a 123-yard rushing performance in Week 2 against the Raiders and 109 yards on just 12 carries in that Broncos loss. But he has been utilized more often and more creatively under Brady, especially over the last four games. Cook had his two best receiving games of the season in Weeks 12 and 14 (with the Bills’ bye in between), catching a total of 11 passes in an overtime loss to the Eagles and a win over the Chiefs.
And over the past two weeks, he’s had his two heaviest loads as a ball carrier, rushing 25 times for 179 yards — both career highs — in the Week 15 rout of the Cowboys, then running 20 times for 70 yards last week against the Chargers.
The Patriots’ run defense (second in the NFL at 84.8 yards per game) has been the team’s most consistent strength. It is at its stoutest in the middle, with Barmore, Bentley, and Davon Godchaux adept at holding their ground. But it will be imperative that the edge defenders stay disciplined, because Cook — who surpassed 1,000 yards for the season against the Chargers — does much of his damage running outside.
Ezekiel Elliott: The man they call Zeke is going to need a heck of a final two games to extend his streak of eight or more touchdowns in a season to eight. He has four in his first and perhaps lone season as a Patriot, two rushing and two receiving, including a nifty catch and run in which he leapfrogged a Broncos defender for a 15-yard TD in the third quarter last Sunday.
Can Elliott score four touchdowns over the final two games? That’s doubtful, and it doesn’t help his cause that he ended up on the injury report with an illness on Thursday. But with Rhamondre Stevenson out for the season and several other Patriots skill players dealing with injuries, Elliott, if healthy, will at least get a heavy workload.
In the Week 7 matchup, Elliott didn’t have a reception and ran 11 times for 31 yards, including a 2-yard touchdown that put the Patriots up, 10-0, in the first quarter. The Bills’ run defense ranks in the middle of the pack (16th, 111.3 yards per game), but Buffalo would be wise to be warier of him in the passing game.
In the three games since Stevenson went down in the loss to the Chargers, Elliott has run 45 times for 120 yards, just a 2.7-yard average. He has been more effective in the passing game, with 21 catches for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns in those three games, including a season-high nine receptions against the Broncos. Believe it or not, he’s now the Patriots’ leader in receptions with 45, one more than Demario Douglas.
Grievance of the week
First, consider this list of the 15 modern-era finalists for the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s Class of 2024:
Eric Allen, Jared Allen, Willie Anderson, Jahri Evans, Dwight Freeney, Antonio Gates, Rodney Harrison, Devin Hester, Torry Holt, Andre Johnson, Julius Peppers, Fred Taylor, Reggie Wayne, Patrick Willis, Darren Woodson.
Now, answer this: Which 10 — yes, 10 — are you cutting to get to the maximum of five to be enshrined?
Because to me, at least a dozen if not every one of those players belongs in the Hall of Fame. It’s obnoxious that worthy players must wait . . . and wait . . . and wait some more . . . because there is a cap put on the number of players that can be elected.
Holt has been a semifinalist — one of the final 25 candidates — 10 times. Hines Ward, who didn’t make the cut to finalist this year, has been a semifinalist eight times, as has Woodson.
It’s a shame that even the best players in NFL history have to endure cutdown days long after they’ve retired. At some point, sadly, some must get numb to the disappointment.
And yes, I’ll admit it. Part of the motivation for this grievance is the enduring annoyance that Harrison, a better player than 2021 inductee John Lynch in every way, hasn’t made it in yet.
The flashback
Even with the lingering what-ifs of the Super Bowl XXXI loss to the Packers, the 1996 season belongs on the very short list of the most satisfying in Patriots history, pre-Tom Brady/Bill Belichick.
The AFC East had long been the domain of the Bills, who won six division titles from 1988-95 and advanced to the Super Bowl four straight seasons from 1990-93. The ’96 Patriots were rich in talent, but they knew that they would have to overcome the Bills in order to fulfill their promise.
In Week 9, they did just that, and it sent them on their way to their first AFC East title since 1986. The Patriots entered the matchup having won 4 of 5 since starting 0-2, while the Bills remained the division’s ultimate measuring stick with a 5-2 record.
The Patriots prevailed in thrilling and confidenceboosting fashion, scoring a pair of touchdowns in the final 85 seconds and surviving a successful Hail Mary to seize a 28-25 victory.
Curtis (Should Have Been a Patriot for Life) Martin scored on a 10-yard run with 1:25 left to put the Patriots up, 21-18, then Willie McGinest picked off a Jim Kelly screen pass and returned it 46 yards for a touchdown with 41 seconds left.
The Bills put a scare into the Patriots when Andre Reed caught a Hail Mary to cut the margin to 3 points, but steady Keith Byars recovered the onside kick, and the Patriots had a signature win over a respected rival.
Including the postseason, the 1996 Patriots won 10 of their final 13 games. The Bills, meanwhile, lost in the wild-card round and did not win the division again until 2020. I’ll look deeper into how that could have happened and get back to you with the results next week.
Prediction
A weird realization over the past three weeks: In this lost season, which may well (but should not) be Belichick’s final one in Foxborough, the wins remain enjoyable, even if in the grand scheme of things they are detrimental.
Beating the Steelers in Week 14 and messing with their playoff chances was satisfying. Doing the same to Sean Payton and the Broncos on Christmas Eve was a good time, as well.
The players’ insistence, particularly on defense, on remaining unified and determined has been admirable, and it has been fun to watch players such as Myles Bryant and Mack Wilson Sr. take advantage of opportunities.
No franchise wants to make an annual habit of playing spoiler. But considering that the Patriots were 2-10 after a shutout loss to the Chargers, a punch line of a franchise, their resilience that has resulted in wins in two of the last three games is admirable.
Yeah, the recent victories have affected their draft status, and maybe that hurts in the long run. Sunday, against a motivated Bills team, the suspicion here is that the Patriots will play well and lose a close game, which is the best outcome even if it’s as fun in the moment as another surprising win. Bills 22, Patriots 20.