Season winding down, coaches feeling heat
The holiday season is time to be with family and reflect on everything we are thankful for. It’s also time for several NFL head coaches to start looking into packing supplies and moving trucks.
With two weeks left in the regular season, the landscape for the coaching carousel is taking shape. The NFL typically averages seven head coaching changes per offseason, and with only five last year, league sources expect as many as 10 this offseason.
Two teams already have come off the board. Jets owner Woody Johnson told the New York Post last weekend that coach Robert Saleh is safe for another season, as Johnson apparently is willing to give everyone a mulligan for Aaron Rodgers’s injury. And the Steelers reportedly are looking to give Mike Tomlin a contract extension, even at 8-7 and in danger of missing the playoffs for the fourth time in six years. Tomlin, in his 17 th season in Pittsburgh, is signed through 2024.
Here in New England, we are well aware that Bill Belichick is on the hot seat. You may have heard something about it (latest name to watch for: Brian Flores). Let’s take a look at the other teams considering a coaching change:
Raiders: They fired Josh McDaniels in November, and interim coach
Antonio Pierce has gone 4-3, with impressive wins over the Chargers and Chiefs the last two weeks. Owner Mark Davis made the mistake two years ago of not giving the full-time job to interim coach Rich Bisaccia, who was popular in the locker room. It would be a massive surprise if Davis made the same mistake twice and didn’t give the fulltime jobs to Pierce and interim general manager Champ Kelly. Don’t put anything past Davis, though.
Chargers: They fired coach Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco two weeks ago and will start from scratch. Their last two hires were first-time head coaches with backgrounds in defense (Staley) and running backs (Anthony Lynn), so expect the Chargers to hire a coach with a quarterback/offensive coordinator background. I have heard the same Jim Harbaugh rumors as everyone else, and he does make sense as an experienced coach with a quarterback background. But I have also heard that the front-runner is likely
Ben Johnson, the Lions’ 37-year-old offensive coordinator who will be at the top of the list for every team that wants a young, offensive-minded coach. Johnson has done a great job with Jared
Goff the last two years, and coaching
Justin Herbert is a plum job.
Panthers: The Chargers will get plenty of competition for Johnson from the Panthers, who fired coach Frank Reich in November. Owner David Tepper bombed with his first two coaching hires, Matt Rhule and Reich, and seems to have his sights set on Johnson to turn around struggling quarterback
Bryce Young. But Tepper may have to grossly overpay Johnson to get him to consider Carolina over Los Angeles. If Johnson says no, Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero will be in the mix. And I still think Belichick makes sense because he’s one of the few coaches who can bring buzz to a lifeless team.
Commanders: New owner Josh Harris is almost certain to fire Ron Rivera and GM Martin Mayhew and start fresh with the Commanders at 4-11. Word is they covet a young offensive coach, like seemingly every other team. One name to watch — Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith, who quietly is becoming a top candidate.
Bears: They might not be in line for a total wipeout, as momentum is building for quarterback Justin Fields to keep his job for another year. Keeping coach Matt Eberflus might be a tough sell. He’s 9-23 in two seasons, including 6-9 this year, and the Bears have allowed 28 passing touchdowns, third most in the NFL. The Bears probably need to hire a young offensive coach.
Falcons: It’s unclear if Arthur Smith is responsible for building a subpar quarterback depth chart of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, but he may pay for it. Smith’s seat is scorching hot with the Falcons at 7-8 and 2128 in Smith’s three seasons. However, they are just one game behind the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead and in ninth place in the NFC standings, so Smith has a chance to save his job. If he is fired, watch for Atlanta as a potential landing spot for Belichick.
Saints: Dennis Allen may be facing the same situation as his counterpart in Atlanta. The Saints are 7-8 and sitting in 11th place in the NFC, but also are just one game out of the division lead. Allen hasn’t had great quarterback play the last two years with Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton ,and Derek Carr, but he’s 14-18 and not building much excitement in New Orleans.
Buccaneers: Todd Bowles may have saved his job with the current four-game win streak, which has the Buccaneers (8-7) leading the NFC South. But the season isn’t over, and if the Buccaneers miss the playoffs, Bowles could be in trouble.
Cowboys: Mike McCarthy has had an excellent season, with his Cowboys at 10-5 and the offense playing better under his direction than it did last year with Kellen Moore. But if they lose in the wild-card round again, McCarthy could be in trouble.
Cardinals: It wouldn’t seem fair to fire Jonathan Gannon after one season when the Cardinals clearly treated this year as a reset (others may call it “tanking”). But Gannon is 3-12, his defense is 31st in points allowed, and the Cardinals dumped former quarterback Josh Rosen after one season. Why couldn’t they do it with their coach?
Titans: The Athletic reports that the Titans will refuse to trade Mike Vrabel to the Patriots, but the rumors won’t go away.
Seahawks: If we’re looking for a “surprise” opening, there is some chatter of Pete Carroll, 72, moving to the front office and the Seahawks bringing in someone such as Cowboys defensive coordinator (and former Seahawks DC) Dan Quinn.
COSTLY DECISION Broncos paying for Wilson trade
A warning to starting quarterbacks: If your team signs Jarrett Stidham, it’s time to put your house on the market.
Last year, the Raiders benched Derek Carr for Stidham for the final two games of the season because they decided they were moving on and didn’t want Carr to get hurt and trigger $40 million in injury guarantees.
Stidham signed in Denver this season, and now the same dynamic is playing out with Russell Wilson. Broncos coach Sean Payton announced this past week that Stidham will start the final two games of the season, and acknowledged that there was a “financial component” to Wilson’s benching. But it’s not just a component — Wilson’s contract has been a disaster for the Broncos, and they’re ready to cut their losses.
Trading for Wilson last year was worth the big swing, given the Broncos’ struggles at quarterback and no playoff wins since Peyton Manning won the Super Bowl in 2015. But it was a brutal trade — two first-round picks, two seconds, plus a handful of productive players, plus a new $245 million extension for Wilson, even though he was still under contract for two years. That last aspect likely hurts GM George Paton as the Broncos weigh his future.
Wilson, 35, is playing better after a terrible 2022 season in which he went 4-11 and his stats cratered across the board. This year, Wilson has 26 touchdowns against eight interceptions, his completion percentage is up by 5.9 points, and his 98.0 passer rating ranks seventh in the league. But the Broncos are only 7-8, and it’s pretty clear that Wilson’s success is mostly due to Payton, who has had to manage and rein in Wilson to avoid making big mistakes. The lasting image of the Broncos season will be Payton screaming at Wilson on the sideline two weeks ago.
The Broncos are so done with Wilson that they’re willing to eat a large chunk of cash. Wilson has $39 million in fully guaranteed salary in 2024, which he gets whether he plays or sits on his couch. It comes with offsets that would reduce the Broncos’ obligation by however much Wilson can get from another team, but Wilson has little incentive to sign for anything but the league minimum, and stick the Broncos with a $38 million bill.
The impetus for the Broncos to sit Wilson now is the 2025 season. Wilson’s $37 million salary is guaranteed for injury only, and becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2024 season (March 18). They will release him by that date, and that money will vanish.
Salary-cap wise, the Broncos will take on $85 million in dead cap space to release Wilson, the most in NFL history. The Broncos will designate Wilson a post-June 1 release, meaning he will count $35.4 million against the cap in 2024, and $49.6 million in 2025 (but Denver will have to carry the full $85 million until June 2). It’s yet another example of how the salary cap is easily manipulated, and teams aren’t fazed by dead cap money. (The Buccaneers are on the verge of the playoffs with Tom Brady costing $35 million in dead cap.)
Wilson’s benching is a fascinating decision for the Broncos, because they don’t have a solid Plan B. Stidham is a nice backup, but he’s not the answer. The Broncos also won’t have a crack at the top college quarterbacks because they’ll likely be drafting somewhere in the teens. The Broncos likely will draft a quarterback this year anyway, but could also sign a bridge QB such as Jameis Winston, who played for Payton for two years in New Orleans.
To recap: The Broncos don’t know who their next quarterback will be, they owe Wilson $39 million in cash next year, and he has the most dead salary cap money in NFL history. Yet the Broncos are ready to cut their losses and release Wilson anyway.
Wilson will probably get a job next year because the NFL is so short on quality quarterbacks and he will come cheaply to his next team. But he comes with a lot of baggage — poor play and a big ego, the same dynamics that sent Cam Newton out of the league.
ETC. Ravens earned place in standings
The Ravens are 12-3 and No. 1 in the AFC entering Sunday’s showdown against the Dolphins. They have earned every bit of it.
The Ravens have a .533 strength of schedule that ranks as the fourth hardest in the NFL. They have beaten two division winners (49ers, Lions), and six other teams above .500. They blew out the Seahawks, swept the Bengals, beat the Rams and Texans, and split with the Browns.
The Ravens’ defense is No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed (16.3 per game) despite playing four of the top-10 scoring offenses. They have one last challenge on Sunday against the No. 1-scoring Dolphins (30.9 per game).
The Ravens are on pace to be the first team since the 1970 merger to lead the NFL in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways in the same season. Defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald will likely be a top candidate for head coaching jobs (or perhaps Michigan if Jim Harbaugh leaves).
“Our defense is phenomenal,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. “They talk trash all day to us, even when we’re going against each other in practice, so we pretty much feel how those guys feel on offense, for the opposing team.”
NFL the gift that keeps giving
The NBA has owned Christmas Day for the last couple of decades, but the NFL is moving in and taking over. All three games posted monster numbers — 29 million viewers on CBS for Chiefs-Raiders, a similar number for Eagles-Giants on Fox, and more than 27 million viewers for Ravens-49ers on ESPN.
Meanwhile, per SportsMediaWatch, ESPN’s NBA ratings were down 23 percent and its viewership down 30 percent from a year ago. The NFL had a slate of Christmas Day games in 2022, as well, but this year the league scheduled better games involving the top teams and stars.
In 2024, Christmas Day falls on a Wednesday. You can bet the NFL will find a way to schedule three strong games.
Extra points
Joe Flacco’s resurgence is arguably the best story of the season, and you can’t help but feel excited for the Browns, who improved to 11-5 with Thursday’s win over the Jets and clinched their fourth playoff berth since 1990. But they are being too careless with the football. They had eight turnovers in their three previous games, and Thursday had four fumbles (two lost) plus a pick-6. That kind of sloppy play will end your season in a hurry in the playoffs . . . Kevin Stefanski is the first coach to lead the Browns to multiple postseason appearances since Marty Schottenheimer (1985-88). The Browns’ last four postseason appearances and head coaches: 2023 (Stefanski), 2020 (Stefanski), 2002 (Butch Davis), 1994 (Bill Belichick) . . . The Bengals may not make the playoffs, sitting at 8-7 and the No. 10 seed in the AFC, but that hasn’t quelled their rivalry with the Chiefs, Sunday’s opponents. When Ja’Marr Chase was asked Thursday what stands out about the Chiefs, he replied, “I’ll be honest, nothing. That’s why they double everybody, because they can’t do it one on one. It’s not like they’ve got a superstar on their defense.” The Bengals beat the Chiefs three straight times in 2021-22 until the Chiefs got their revenge in last year’s AFC Championship game . . . Jacoby Brissett is back, set to start for his fifth team in eight seasons as the Commanders host the 49ers. Brissett sat patiently behind Sam Howell all season, then promptly entered last week’s loss to the Jets and led three straight touchdown drives. Sticking with Howell for so long — he has two touchdown passes and eight interceptions in his last five starts — was a curious decision by Ron Rivera . . . Tough break for Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson last week with a torn ACL and MCL. Not only is he done for this season — though the Vikings’ playoff hopes are slim — but the timing likely affects Hockenson well into the 2024 season . . . With the Steelers 8-7, Mike Tomlin has two shots to cement his 17 th straight season at or above .500. But it won’t be easy, as the Steelers finish at Seattle and Baltimore.