Does Christie’s campaign help Trump in N.H.?
presidency butts up against simple political game theory. The former New Jersey governor has been clear from the start that he got into the race to defeat Donald Trump. But now, some Republican strategists and elected officials argue, Christie’s own candidacy could unintentionally help Trump, as the third-place contender siphons votes away from a more viable alternative. Christie could best achieve the aim of his campaign by ending it, they argue.
New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, the popular Republican who is backing former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, was just the latest Republican to make that case.
Christie’s campaign is “at an absolute dead end,” Sununu said in a recent CNN interview, and New Hampshire has become “a two-person race” between Trump and Haley. By staying in, Sununu said, “the risk is that he takes [Haley’s] margin of the win.”
“The only person that wants Chris Christie to stay in the race is Donald Trump,” Sununu added. “If Chris is true to his message about defeating Trump … I think he’s gonna make the right decision eventually.”
Christie, for his part, has bluntly rejected that line of thinking.
“Some people say I should drop out of this race,” Christie says directly to the camera in a new commercial airing in New Hampshire. “Really? I’m the only one saying Donald Trump is a liar.”
His campaign shows no signs of slowing, and advisers insist he has a path even beyond New Hampshire. Christie has events scheduled in the state this week, and the campaign recently launched a seven-figure ad campaign.
Christie is a history buff — he’s writing a book on Ronald Reagan; his most recent read, he told voters here, was a 900page volume on Ulysses S. Grant — and he has made clear that at stake in this campaign is nothing less than the centuriesold tradition of American democracy. He talks less about his own place in the polls (a distant third in New Hampshire behind Trump and Haley) and more about Trump’s place in the lead, saying, “We should be ashamed.”
To hear him tell it, Christie is not just fighting to gain a few points in the polls; he is defending the country’s most closely held principles.
Days before Christmas, in an almost plaintive town hall in the bar of a golf course here, Christie skipped some of his usual anecdotes about his time as governor of New Jersey and his recent trip to Israel to reflect on the character of Jesus Christ and the meaning of truth and democracy.
“We deserve better” than Trump, he said, “but we’re not gonna get it if we don’t do it for ourselves.”
Appealing to voters’ better angels, he assured them they still have time to change history’s course by rejecting Trump when they vote in the primary on Jan. 23.
Trump is the clear front-runner, in New Hampshire and nationally, but his rivals insist there’s still plenty of time for that to change.
“There’s nothing more I can do than this,” Christie told voters last month. “This is what I know how to do. This is what I was sent here to do, and I believe it’s my mission.”
For most GOP voters, though, these sincere exhortations have not been convincing. Christie’s support hovers just above 10 percent in New Hampshire’s GOP primary, according to polling averages, putting him far behind Trump and Haley. In the rest of the country, he fares worse.
Polls and voter interviews show there is significant overlap between supporters of Christie and Haley, both seen as the more moderate options in this year’s GOP field. That suggests that if Christie were to drop out, much of his support could flow to Haley, making her more competitive against Trump.
New Hampshire voters who are open to both Haley and Christie are grappling with the choice, too.
Some say they like the former New Jersey governor for taking a hard line on Trump but wonder if voting for Haley would be more strategic, as her momentum in the state and higher standing in the polls give her a better shot at beating the former president.
“I am voting for the person who can beat Trump; it’s either Nikki Haley or Chris Christie,” said Joanne Dworman, of Exeter, N.H., at a Haley event in Kingston on Wednesday.
“I saw that Nikki got this big bump in the polls, and that she may have an opportunity to do that,” Dworman added, but said it gives her pause that Haley would be willing to pardon Trump should he be convicted.
Some voters hope Haley and Christie will work together.
“Circle the wagons and join the forces, because no one is going to beat Trump unless somebody gets together and puts a full offensive against him,” said Bob McGrath, 74, who is deciding between Haley and Christie.
Even prominent Christie supporters have made the leap to Haley in recent days. Tom Boucher, a New Hampshire restaurateur who served on Christie’s steering committee in the state, recently defected to Haley, citing her better odds.
“I want a winner,” Boucher said.
Boucher praised Christie’s campaign but said it’s time for him to end it, so that “he can accomplish what he wanted, which is to get Trump out.”
Strategists warn that Christie has set a ceiling for himself: By criticizing Trump so vociferously, he’s effectively spurned any voters who are sympathetic to the former president, even if they’d be open to voting for another Republican. And even some voters who are no fans of Trump criticize Christie as a one-trick pony who has more to say about why they shouldn’t vote for Trump than why they should vote for Christie.
But for Christie, the attacks on Trump are the whole point. And for many of his voters, there are factors more important than strategy.
Kathleen Wade, an independent voter from Greenland, N.H., who is backing Christie and loathes Trump, said concerns that Trump’s rivals would split the vote pushed her to consider a vote for Haley. But she ultimately decided against it. Haley, she explained, has been too supportive of Trump, “and my conscience won’t allow” it.
“I’ve always voted on character,” said Wade, 56.
Likewise, Glenn Bergeron — who has voted for Trump in the past but is now weighing Christie and Haley — said he considers the polls but feels compelled to vote for the candidate “that I feel like, when my head hits the pillow, that I did right.”
“If I vote for one guy, and he’s only got 20 percent and loses miserably, I’ll feel good that I voted for somebody that I know could help me,” Bergeron added, “and I’m sorry that nobody else saw it the same way.”