Despite records, a memorable finale
A serious yet lighthearted, nostalgiatinted look at the Patriots’ weekly matchup . . .
No matter whether Bailey Zappe throws three first-half interceptions again or plays well enough to spark some optimism about his Patriots future . . .
No matter whether Breece Hall keeps running smack-dab into that rock wall of a Patriots defensive line or finds traction as a receiver out of the Jets backfield . . .
No matter whether the Patriots extend their winning streak over the Jets to 16 games or lose for the first time since 2015 . . . this is certain to be a memorable season finale for all sorts of reasons.
A few: In the race for draft position, the Patriots and Jets would be best served by losing, but both coaches are fully intent on winning this game.
The game is expected to be played in snowy weather, which always adds an appealing element — and stirs cherished memories for Patriots fans.
And, of course, if this indeed is Bill Belichick’s final game as Patriots head coach (or HC of the NEP), it’s fitting that it comes against the Jets, a franchise he spurned to come to New England, and a franchise he loathes with every fiber of his hoodie.
It’s Patriots-Jets, with all sorts of potential plot twists and various stakes. You know what that means. Brace yourself for a weird one, folks.
Kick it off, Ryland, and let’s get this one started . . .
Three players worth watching
Demario Douglas: Conventional wisdom is that offenses must lean on the running game in lousy weather. Yet pretty much every time the Patriots have played in snow-globe conditions through the years, at least one of their pass catchers has come through with a memorable performance.
The most celebrated example is tight end Jermaine Wiggins’s performance in the Snow Bowl — the Patriots’ era-launching 1613 overtime victory over the Raiders in the 2001 AFC Divisional round, of course. The East Boston kid who was rather familiar with New England winters hauled in 10 passes on 13 targets for 68 yards.
He was not alone in coming through that night. David Patten — who grew up in Columbia, S.C., not exactly a hospitable environment for snowmen — caught eight of Tom Brady’s passes on 16 targets for 107 yards.
Other big performances by Patriots receivers on a day with a winter-scene backdrop? Deion Branch came through with six catches for 93 yards in the Patriots’ 12-0 win over the Dolphins in 2003, a game best remembered for Tedy Bruschi’s pick-6, which fans celebrated by heaving snow into the air in an incredible visual.
And how about this: During the Patriots’ 59-0 wipeout of the Titans during Week 6 of the 2009 season, Randy Moss and Wes Welker combined for 18 catches on 21 targets for 279 yards and five touchdowns. Pretty sure the Titans had boarded their plane to return to Tennessee before the two-minute warning of that one.
(For the record, the old run-the-ball-in-lousyweather game plan was applied to the extreme in the Patriots’ 3-0 win over the Dolphins in the legendary “Snow Plow Game” in 1982. Steve Grogan completed 2 of 5 passes, both to Lin Dawson, for 13 yards.)
If Sunday’s game is played in significant snowfall, the hunch here is that Douglas will add his name to this list. The Florida native joked about his unfamiliarity with the ice scrapers that Patriots players were given in advance this past week, and snowy weather would be unfamiliar to him. But he has the quickness — like Branch, Patten, and Welker, among others, in seasons before him — to get open in such conditions.
And Douglas has a milestone at stake. His 47 receptions are the most by any Patriots rookie since Belichick has been here (breaking Branch’s standard of 43 set in 2002), and with 548 receiving yards he needs just 16 to surpass Branch’s 2002 output there.
Garrett Wilson: The second-year receiver deserves plaudits for putting up the numbers he has (93 receptions, 1,008 yards, 3 touchdowns) while catching occasional on-target passes from the likes of Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Sunday’s starter, Trevor Siemian.
Garrett Wilson was the AFC offensive rookie of the year last season after posting an 83-1,103-4 stat line, and the realistic expectation was that he would take a long stride forward into truly elite company this season with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Rodgers’s season-ending Achilles’ injury four plays into his Jets career derailed that, and Garrett Wilson and Rodgers have thrown the same number of passes this season, one. That’s not quite the Most Jets Thing Ever, but it does get honorable mention.
The Jets’ rotation of scatter-arms at least have had the good sense to aim many passes in Wilson’s general direction. He has been targeted at least 10 times in nine games this season, with a high of 15 in a
Week 16 win over the Commanders. The Patriots did a fine job defending Wilson in their 15-10 win in Week 3, holding him to five catches on nine targets for 48 yards, with a long of 29.
Matthew Slater: Belichick isn’t the only Patriot with a strong case for being the best ever to do his job who may be saying farewell soon.
This is Slater’s 16th season as a special teams ace, and given his recent introspection when discussing his career and his teammates’ admiring comments about his immense contributions as a player and leader, it sounds as if Sunday may bring his final scene as a Patriot.
If so, it’s the conclusion to an extraordinary and specifically distinctive career. The Patriots have featured beloved special teams standouts before — Mosi Tatupu might have been the first. But no player in franchise history, nor in the history of the NFL, has mastered the role of gunner like Slater, a stalwart on three Super Bowl champions for a franchise that once valued special teams like no other.
Slater deserves to join his father, Jackie — an offensive tackle for 20 seasons for the Rams — in the Hall of Fame, whether or not Bills special teams legend Steve Tasker gets there before him. Slater has made 10 Pro Bowls — five fewer than all-time leader Tom Brady, and tied with the likes of Lawrence Taylor, Johnny Unitas, and Ronnie Lott. In fact, 14 players have made it exactly 10 times. Eleven are in the Hall of Fame. The other three — Slater, Aaron Rodgers, and 49ers tackle Trent Williams — are active.
Here’s hoping the Patriots find a way to give Slater one more fitting and memorable moment, akin to Doug Flutie’s dropkick in the 2006 finale. Few Patriots have been more deserving of a final, admiring salute.
Grievance of the week
We could gripe about Trent Brown’s attitude, or the lack of resources deployed to the offense before this season, or those among us who won’t acknowledge that there is an enormous difference in value between picking second and fifth in the 2024 NFL Draft.
But really, on this day that may spell the end of so much more than this season, let’s keep it simple.
It’s such a bummer that the 429th game of Belichick’s Patriots coaching career could well be the last. It’s going to be bizarre and disorienting when this game ends and the speculation on his future reaches fever pitch.
And I worry that in this disjointed and wildly disappointing season, some fans and way too many fellow media members have lost sight of all he accomplished here, in tandem with Brady and in instances when Brady had nothing to do with something Belichick cooked up.
For as much as the roster and organizational hierarchy is a mess — a mess of Belichick’s doing — he’s still a superb coach, and I’m still waiting to hear the name of a candidate that makes me believe they’re going to hire a better one.
The flashback
In all previous editions of the Unconventional Preview this season, this little corner of the column has been dedicated to a previous matchup between the teams playing that week.
It feels appropriate this week to veer in a slightly different direction. Let’s remember Belichick’s first victory as Patriots coach.
It’s been a while, so you’re forgiven if it took a minute to recall that it was a 28-19 at Denver Oct. 1, 2000, or Week 5 of the season.
There are assorted reminders in the game summary that to further confirm how long ago it was:
Troy Brown, currently the Patriots’ wide receivers coach, caught a pair of touchdown passes from Drew Bledsoe, including a 44-yarder, in the first quarter to give the Patriots a surprising 14-0 lead.
Broncos receiver Ed McCaffrey hauled in nine passes for 91 yards and caught a 2-point conversion for the game’s final points. He is best known nowadays as Christian McCaffrey’s dad.
In Denver’s high-altitude punter’s paradise, Lee Johnson averaged 45.3 yards on six kicks, with a long of 56. Johnson turned 62 in November.
Looking at the game summary, let alone watching the highlights, offers plenty of opportunity for sentimentality and warm memories. Bledsoe, who of course we all knew would be the Patriots’ starting quarterback for the next decade (pay no mind to that skinny fourth-stringer staying late to work with the receivers), threw four touchdown passes: the two to Brown, one to Terry Glenn (I wish everything had gone better for him), and another to J.R. Redmond (whose modest Patriots career forever includes a significant contribution to the dynasty’s origin story).
The win came after four losses to open the season, including 20-19 to the Jets in Week 2 when receiver Wayne Chrebet scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns, including the winner with less than two minutes left. Have to figure Jets fans thought they’d be owning Belichick and the Patriots for years after that. It went somewhat differently.
Prediction
The Jets have many more high-end players than the Patriots — the aforementioned Garrett Wilson and Hall, cornerback Sauce Gardner, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams among them. It’s plausible that they win this game, and directly help the Patriots get into position to draft a potential franchise quarterback. In a way, that would be an amusing outcome, the Jets finally winning when they’d be best served by defeat.
But this feels like a Patriots victory, doesn’t it? Zappe has been good at times, and resilient always.
It’s hard to envision Siemian having success against a Patriots defense that has been nothing short of admirable for the last six weeks or so.
Mostly, I just cannot see Belichick walking out of Gillette Stadium for perhaps the final time as coach carrying a loss to the Jets as a parting gift. It may end. It probably will. But not like that. Patriots 24, Jets 10.