Dolphins more wounded, Bills more desperate

Bills coach Sean McDermott ordered the crew at Highmark Stadium not to post the score of the Ravens-Dolphins game on the videoboards last Sunday.

He was similarly focused regarding Saturday’s Steelers-Ravens game, even though a Pittsburgh loss would have clinched a playoff spot for the Bills.

“I won’t watch it,” McDermott said. “We are solely focused on our level of play and the Miami Dolphins.”

Sunday night’s game in Miami couldn’t be bigger for the Bills — or the Dolphins, for that matter. It’s the NFL’s dream scenario: The winner gets the AFC East title and the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, meaning potentially at least two straight home games. The loser faces an early exit to its season.

“I don’t think there’s much explaining needed at this point,” said Dolphins left tackle Terron Armstead. “It’s the last game of the regular season. We have our goal No. 1 in front of us: win the division. So we’ve got to go out there, execute, and get that done.”

The Bills enter as the more desperate team. They have the NFL’s secondmost-expensive roster and have only one measure of success this season: winning the Super Bowl. A win against the Dolphins will put them right back on track. But a loss would knock the Bills down to the No. 6 or 7 seed — or eliminate them completely, based on other results.

The Bills have been in their own version of the playoffs for the last month since entering their bye week with a 6-6 record, and have responded with four straight wins to put them in position to win the AFC East. But the Bills struggled the last two weeks against the woeful Chargers and Patriots, holding on for wins despite committing four turnovers.

The Bills are 7-2 at home and just 3-4 on the road. They need to be in Orchard Park for the playoffs, not on the road.

“I feel like when there’s a little added pressure, that’s when we really play our best,” receiver Gabe Davis said. “Having our backs against the wall I feel like is our most comfortable spot.”

The Dolphins don’t have quite as much at stake, since they already clinched a playoff spot. But the Dolphins badly need a win for their psyche. The franchise hasn’t won a division title since 2008, or a playoff game since December 2000 (losing five straight). A home playoff game is especially important, as the Dolphins are 7-1 at home and 4-4 on the road. A loss would mean the Dolphins would open the playoffs at Kansas City, a daunting assignment.

Plus, the Dolphins could use the psychological lift of finally beating the

Bills, who have won 10 of the last 11 meetings, including a 48-20 beatdown in Week 4, and a 34-31 win in last year’s wild-card round in which Skylar Thompson started at quarterback for Miami.

Josh Allen has owned the Dolphins, with 34 touchdown passes, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 109.2 in 12 games (10-2), plus 591 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Allen has been named AFC Offensive Player of the Week 12 times in his career, and five have come against Miami. In this year’s 48-20 win, Allen produced a perfect 158.3 passer rating after throwing for 320 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions.

“I’ve been here four years and I’ve only beat them once,” Dolphins right guard Robert Hunt said. “So to beat these guys, it would be a good day. I’ll have a great night if we win.”

The Dolphins also enter Sunday’s game as the more wounded team. Star pass rusher Bradley Chubb tore his ACL in garbage time last Sunday, and Tyreek Hill (ankle), Jaylen Waddle (ankle), Xavien Howard (foot), and Raheem Mostert (knee) sat out of practice Thursday. The Bills are mostly healthy, other than Allen dealing with a stinger from the win over the Patriots.

The Dolphins are emotionally wounded, too, coming off a 56-19 loss to the Ravens that ruined their shot at the No. 1 seed and revealed how far Miami is from being an elite team. But the Dolphins are buoyed by the fact that they haven’t lost consecutive games all season.

Tua Tagovailoa is just 1-4 in his career against the Bills (disregarding the one start where he left early with an injury), with 5 touchdown passes, 5 picks, and an 80.5 passer rating. But his one win came at home, 21-19 in 2022.

The Bills are preparing for a hostile environment, but Sunday’s game may feel like they are in Orchard Park (minus the snow). Per VividSeats.com, Hard Rock Stadium is expected to have 52 percent Bills fans.

If the Dolphins do win, there’s a scenario in which the teams meet again next week in Miami in the wild-card round.

Though the Bills have dominated this series, they know the Dolphins will be ready to play.

“They just played a game where they didn’t play too well against a really good team, so they’re hungry,” Allen said. “We’re stepping into a very hostile and dangerous situation with that in terms of the AFC East on the line, so we’ve got to give everything that we’ve got.” yards per catch (9.3).

Through 13 games, Diggs played in 86 percent of snaps and averaged 10 targets per game. In the last three games, Diggs has played in just 57 percent of snaps, and averaged 6.7 targets. Last week against the Patriots, Diggs caught 4 of 7 passes for just 26 yards while playing 45 of 69 snaps (65 percent).

The Bills have won four in a row, which perhaps has quelled some of the dysfunction with Diggs. And their offense does have more balance — while Diggs has 476 receiving yards in his last 10 games, Dalton Kincaid has 471, Khalil Shakir has 466, and Gabe Davis has 405.

“He’s been a true pro, and that’s much appreciated,” coach Sean McDermott said of Diggs. “At the end of the day it’s about winning.”

But something is clearly off. Diggs has an $18.5 million salary in 2024 that is guaranteed for injury only for now, and becomes fully guaranteed in March. A divorce between Diggs and the Bills is looking like a good bet.

Of course, Belichick being on top of the all-time losses record is mostly a function of longevity. Only Halas (40 years), Shula (33), and Curly Lambeau (33) coached longer than Belichick’s 29 years. Belichick has a .648 winning percentage and six championships. Reeves won at a .535 clip and never won a title. Fisher’s winning percentage was .512, with no titles. Landry, who also coached 29 years, finished .607 with two titles.

But Belichick’s four-year slide since Tom Brady left — a 29-37 record and .439 winning percentage — has hurt him in his head-to-head matchup with Shula. After 2019, Brady’s final year with the Patriots, Belichick’s winning percentage was .683, just ahead of Shula’s .677. Now Belichick is nearly 30 percentage points behind at .648.

The 49ers’ Paraag Marathe and the Eagles’ Howie Roseman are the two most pertinent examples of executives who have legal/business backgrounds, but also understand the salary cap, analytics, PR, and X’s and O’s. In San Francisco, coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch get the credit, but Marathe, a 23-year employee, is the glue.

This season, names including Scott Pioli, Sashi Brown, Dawn Aponte, and Jack Easterby have surfaced as candidates for these roles in football operations. Not to be in charge of the roster or football decisions, but to use their wide range of experiences to help ownership groups focus on long-term development and building a culture, which is arguably just as important as X’s and O’s.

In today’s NFL, it’s not enough for owners to simply hire the hot young coach and GM. Some experience, leadership, and wisdom is also needed, as Tepper is finding out.

Nothing to gain

The 49ers and Rams might be ready to just take a knee for three hours when they meet Sunday.

The 49ers already have the No. 1 seed in the NFC wrapped up, and the Rams can only finish No. 6 or 7, so both will be sitting their quarterbacks and other potential starters. The 49ers will start Sam Darnold instead of Brock Purdy, and the Rams will play Carson Wentz instead of Matthew Stafford.

The teams also will probably show nothing, similar to a preseason game. Should the Rams win their wild-card matchup at Detroit, Dallas, or Philadelphia, they likely would face their rival 49ers in the divisional round two weeks from now. The Rams have won six of their last seven, with their only loss coming to the Ravens in overtime.

“Yeah, there’s a good chance we’re playing this team in two weeks, so I think both sides will be pretty vanilla on that,” Shanahan said.

The 49ers have beaten the Rams nine of the last 10 times, including 3023 in Week 2. But the Rams’ one win was in the NFC title game two years ago en route to a Super Bowl title.

Extra points

Week 18 will be a veritable Where Are They Now for several teams. Wentz, signed by the Rams in November, will get his first start since Week 17 last year with Washington. Darnold’s start for the 49ers will be his first since Week 18 last year for Carolina. Ravens backup Tyler Huntley got his ninth career start and first since last year’s playoffs. Former 2011 first-round pick Blaine Gabbert will get his first start since 2018 when he fills in for Patrick Mahomes

against the Chargers. The Browns signed eight-year journeyman Jeff Driskel this past week, and he’ll start against the Bengals in place of Joe Flacco . . . Raiders owner Mark Davis has a tricky decision ahead. Per a league source and several reports, the latest buzz is that Davis has his eye on Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, one of the few coaches who would create some energy in Las Vegas. Harbaugh even recently hired agent Don Yee, who likely helped bring Tom Brady to Vegas (though his deal to buy a slice of the team still hasn’t been approved), and did help bring Jimmy Garoppolo to Vegas this year. But interim coach Antonio Pierce

has done a solid job at 4-4, has won over the locker room, and this past week got vocal support from team leaders Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams.

Davis may want to hire Harbaugh, but will he go against his locker room again? Davis did that two years ago in hiring Josh McDaniels instead of Rich Bisaccia, and look how that worked out . . . The Jets did Dalvin Cook a solid by waiting until Wednesday to release him, reducing the likelihood that a noncontender would claim him since his weekly salary was $388,888 and he’s set to be a free agent. Instead, Cook cleared waivers Thursday, and immediately signed with the Ravens for the rest of the season . . . When the NFL implemented its new kickoff rule allowing for fair catches on any kick inside the 25, it expected the kickoff return rate to drop from 38 to 31 percent. Instead, with one week to go, the kickoff return rate is just 21 percent this season. Drastic changes are coming this offseason . . . The Titans’ defense has made just four interceptions all season. In the modern NFL (2002-23), only the 2018 49ers (two) and 2020 Texans (three) had fewer. The 2003 Titans and 2008 Lions also had four . . . One very minor bit of good news for the Jets: Since Aaron Rodgers

didn’t play 65 percent of snaps, they only owe the Packers a second-round pick in this year’s draft, not a first.