Who’ll win at the Emmys, and who should
Drama series
“Andor” (Disney+)
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
“The Crown” (Netflix)
“House of the Dragon” (HBO/Max) “The Last of Us” (HBO/Max) “Succession” (HBO/Max)
“The White Lotus” (HBO/Max) “Yellowjackets” (Showtime)
THOUGHTS: It’s possible that voters will want to take advantage of their last chance to honor “Saul,” which has been nominated for every one of its seasons but never won. It’s unlikely. It’s also unlikely that they will deem any of the newcomers, including the spectacular “The Last of Us,” ready for the big win. The “Succession” wave is strong, and those Emmy folks are going to ride it high. “Succession,” which has already won this category twice, will take the gold for its flawless final season.
WILL WIN: “Succession”
SHOULD WIN: “Succession.” It left at exactly the right moment, with a season filled with unforgettable sequences and performances.
Lead actor, drama
Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man”
Brian Cox, “Succession”
Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Bob Odenkirk, ‘Better Call Saul”
Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us”
Jeremy Strong, “Succession”
THOUGHTS: No Gary Oldman for “Slow Horses”? It’s just insane. Anyhoo: The much-nominated Odenkirk can’t be dismissed from serious consideration for his final turn as Saul Goodman. But, like the beloved Bridges, and the newly dubbed favorite Pascal, it’s unlikely anyone can beat a “Succession” actor. They were all just too good in flashy, funny roles. Cox won’t take home the statue, since he was only in three episodes before his on-screen death; he belongs in the supporting category. Strong has already won, and he was fantastic in the last chapters — but Culkin left a bigger mark on the season, not least of all during the funeral scene.
WILL WIN: Culkin. He’ll be able to repeat his joke after winning last week at the Golden Globes: “Suck it, Pedro.”
SHOULD WIN: Culkin. He brought fascinating new facets to his character in the wake of his father’s death.
Lead actress, drama
Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters”
Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets” Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale” Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”
Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”
Sarah Snook, “Succession”
THOUGHTS: Once again, the “Succession” train will bring Snook to the fore. She was excellent in the role, and, as with all the actors on the show, she got some of the wittiest, juiciest lines ever written for TV. Any other year, I’d be wondering if Ramsey might win for her touching and complex work as a teen whose life is shaped by an apocalypse. But: “Succession.”
WILL WIN: Snook. As with Culkin, it was a good year for her to shift out of the supporting category.
SHOULD WIN: Snook
Supporting actor, drama
F. Murray Abraham, “The White Lotus” Nicholas Braun, “Succession”
Michael Imperioli, “The White Lotus” Theo James, “The White Lotus” Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
Alan Ruck, “Succession”
Will Sharpe, “The White Lotus” Alexander Skarsgard, “Succession”
THOUGHTS: The question isn’t who will win. Or which HBO actor will win. It’s which “Succession” actor will win. Each of these actors was good on the show, not least of all Skarsgard in all his slippery glory. But my money is on Macfadyen, whose Tom is a fan favorite. He has always been funny on the show, but his desperation took some chillingly dark turns by the end. I enjoyed each of the “Lotus” actors, but none reached Macfadyen’s heights.
WILL WIN: Macfadyen. It would be his second statue for the role.
SHOULD WIN: Macfadyen Supporting actress, drama Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus” Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown” Meghann Fahy, “The White Lotus” Sabrina Impacciatore, “The White Lotus”
Aubrey Plaza, “The White Lotus”
Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul” J. Smith-Cameron, “Succession”
Simona Tabasco, “The White Lotus”
THOUGHTS: They were all good, but I keep pinballing among three of the nominees: Coolidge, so comic and poignant; Debicki, who brought Princess Diana back to life; and Plaza, for whom an eyeroll says more than any script could convey. Debicki may prevail, since voting took place before sentiment turned against “The Crown” in its final season; but there’s great affection for Coolidge, whose acceptance speeches are in demand.
WILL WIN: Coolidge. It would be a fond farewell to a beloved character.
SHOULD WIN: Plaza. I just couldn’t get enough of her contempt.
Comedy series
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“Barry” (HBO/Max)
“The Bear” (FX)
“Jury Duty” (Amazon Freevee)
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu) “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)
“Wednesday” (Netflix)
THOUGHTS: Forget about the one-joke stunt that is “Jury Duty.” This category is a battle between “The Bear” and “Lasso.” On the one hand, voters like to portray themselves as open to new shows — and remember, this nomination is for the first season of “The Bear.” Also, “Lasso” has already had two big Emmy moments, in 2021 and 2022, winning best comedy and a number of acting awards each time. On the other hand, voters may want to say a proper goodbye to “Lasso” and its optimism. The final episode was just exactly perfect.
WILL WIN: “The Bear.” Yup, the show about PTSD, suicide, and alcoholism will be dubbed best comedy.
SHOULD WIN: “The Bear.” Until there’s a “hybrid” category, it deserves a trophy. Lead actress, comedy Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me” Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” Natasha Lyonne, “Poker Face”
Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday”
THOUGHTS: Voters will likely focus on the fresher, buzzier faces in the category, although Applegate may get support for what may be her last starring TV role, as she has said, since she has multiple sclerosis. Ortega may not have voters’ attention yet, even while her series was much-watched. I found her flavorless. It may come down to Brunson versus Lyonne, both deserving.
WILL WIN: Brunson. It’s her comedy, and she is endearing. Also, voters may want to give a network show some love.
SHOULD WIN: Lyonne. She was funny and dramatically sound, but, as with Martin Short, voters may feel she’s just doing her usual shtick.
Lead actor, comedy
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jason Segel, “Shrinking”
Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
THOUGHTS: I can’t see Sudeikis winning a third time for the role, heartwarming as he is in it. Short is a kick, but voters might think he’s just doing his same old. And while Hader is a critic’s favorite who has won this award twice for this role, his Barry may have become too nihilistic — and, for me, too emotionally illogical — to win at this point.
WILL WIN: White
SHOULD WIN: White. I’ve been rooting for him since his days on “Shameless,” whose fine young actors were repeatedly ignored by the Emmys.
Supporting actor, comedy
Anthony Carrigan, “Barry”
Phil Dunster, “Ted Lasso”
Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”
James Marsden, “Jury Duty”
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”
THOUGHTS: That Harrison Ford wasn’t nominated for “Shrinking” is an Emmy Hall of Shame moment. Yet Marsden got a nod for a reality show? But I digress. This category could go many ways. Goldstein is a Television Academy favorite who has won twice for the role, and Carrigan has been a great comic boon to “Barry.” Williams is lowkey awesome and had some good material this season, and Moss-Bachrach is a powerhouse.
WILL WIN: Goldstein. It may be the only win for “Lasso.”
SHOULD WIN: Moss-Bachrach. Even in the first season, he was a potent antagonist.
Supporting actress, comedy
Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary” Juno Temple, “Ted Lasso”
Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso” Jessica Williams, “Shrinking”
THOUGHTS: This category is filled with goodness. There is still affection for “Abbott,” and James and Ralph are both a joy to watch. Also, Williams was an essential part of the fine “Shrinking” ensemble. But Edebiri was a revelation, and remember: Voters may have seen her shine in season two while voting for season one.
WILL WIN: Edebiri. By the way, she’s from Dorchester.
SHOULD WIN: Edebiri
Limited or anthology series
“Beef ” (Netflix)
“Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)
“Daisy Jones & the Six” (Prime Video) “Fleishman Is in Trouble” (FX)
“Obi-Wan Kenobi” (Disney+)
THOUGHTS: No nomination for “Black Bird” or “A Small Light”? OK then, Emmys. I am a fan of “Fleishman,” about the danger of easy judgments in matters of love. But “Beef ” was so original, as it spun a road-rage incident into an existential crisis for its main characters, that it’s heading into the competition with an edge. It covered a lot of ground, starting off loud and ending with a tiny, significant gesture. “Dahmer,” which, like “Beef,” got 13 nominations, may sneak in as a surprise win. For me, that would murder the fun.
WILL WIN: “Beef ”
SHOULD WIN: “Beef ”
Lead actress, limited or anthology series or TV movie
Lizzy Caplan, “Fleishman Is in Trouble” Jessica Chastain, “George & Tammy” Dominique Fishback, “Swarm”
Kathryn Hahn, “Tiny Beautiful Things” Riley Keough, “Daisy Jones & the Six” Ali Wong, “Beef ”
THOUGHTS: Keough carried “Daisy” beautifully, and I’m curious to see what she does next. Chastain is beloved by awards shows near and far. And Caplan was the warm presiding spirit in a difficult story. But Wong was unforgettable — intense, funny, tragic, and, in the end, sweet.
WILL WIN: Wong
SHOULD WIN: Wong
Lead actor, limited or anthology series or TV movie
Taron Egerton, “Black Bird”
Kumail Nanjiani, “Welcome to Chippendales”
Evan Peters, “Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Daniel Radcliffe, “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”
Michael Shannon, “George & Tammy” Steven Yeun, “Beef ”
THOUGHTS: Peters is the real deal, and he deserves plenty of kudos. There’s a lot of talent in this category. But Yeun was outstanding as a man at the end of his rope, acting out his despair on a road-rage situation with a stranger. He and Wong were a stunning team, and I suspect they will be celebrated for it.