There won’t be much downtime this offseason
Most North American professional sports leagues take a couple of months off after their championship has been decided. Not the NFL.
The Chiefs’ Super Bowl win is just two weeks old, but the NFL is already on to 2024. The Combine will be held this coming week in Indianapolis, signaling not only the official start of draft season, but the beginning of free agency and rule changes for next season.
The NFL news cycle is about to explode. Let’s take a look at the top stories of the 2024 offseason:
■ What will the Bears do at quarterback? Holders of the No. 1 overall draft pick, the Bears are the linchpin of the offseason, since everyone wants that pick and the ability to draft Southern Cal quarterback Caleb Williams.
The obvious decision for the Bears is to draft Williams and trade Justin Fields. Williams is a superior passer, and cheaper — as the No. 1 pick, he will sign a four-year deal worth about $40 million, while Fields is entering the final year of his rookie contract and will cost $25.7 million with a fifth-year option in 2025. The Bears should be able to recoup a second- or third-round pick for Fields, who is only making $3.2 million in 2024 and could be a good bridge option for teams such as Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Denver, or Las Vegas.
But it has to be tempting for the Bears to trade the pick, because they can potentially get a king’s ransom. The Bears also have to consider the whispers that Williams doesn’t want to play in Chicago. They may be able to trade the pick to Washington, Williams’s hometown team, and drop back only one spot to No. 2 to draft a receiver such as Marvin Harrison Jr. or Rome Odunze. Or the Bears can put the pick up for auction and see how many firstround picks they can squeeze out of a desperate team.
Most of the offseason is on hold until the Bears make their decision.
■ Veteran quarterback musical chairs. It looks as if at least nine teams have unsettled quarterback situations, and there will be several notable names available. Kirk Cousins is an impending free agent after six seasons in Minnesota, and the Vikings haven’t shown much urgency in getting him re-signed. Cousins would be an obvious upgrade for the teams previously mentioned for Fields, even at 35 and coming off a torn Achilles’.
Fields is the second-best veteran quarterback potentially available, followed by Russell Wilson, who is likely to be released by the Broncos, even though they owe him $39 million fully guaranteed. That means Wilson, 35, will probably come cheaply for his new team, especially if he wants to prove that the Broncos made the wrong decision to dump him.
Baker Mayfield is a free agent, but it’s hard seeing him leave the Buccaneers after they helped revitalize his career and hired an offensive coordinator (Liam Coen) with whom he previously worked. Other veteran quarterbacks to hit free agency will be Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Jacoby Brissett, Jameis Winston, Gardner Minshew, Mitchell Trubisky, and Drew Lock. Watch out for Winston and Denver given his previous relationship with coach Sean Payton.
■ Tua Tagovailoa’s contract. Fellow 2020 draftees Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert got mega contracts last offseason, deals that average $55 million and $52.5 million per year, respectively. But the Dolphins have a tricky decision with Tagovailoa, who is set to play on his fifth-year option at $23.17 million.
Tagovailoa put up big numbers in 2023 and the Dolphins surely want to keep building with a team that made the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since 2000-01. But do they really want to sink big bucks into a player who has a troubling concussion history and might just be a “system” quarterback?
The Dolphins could let Tagovailoa play out his fifth-year option and wait a year to make the decision, but it’s not a great way to show support for your quarterback. The best solution may be a needle-threading contract that pays Tagovailoa somewhere close to the top of the market, but with little long-term security.
■ Receivers on the move? Several of the best wide receivers have been traded in recent years, including Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams.
This offseason could see more fireworks.
The Bills could look to trade Stefon Diggs, whose production plummeted over the second half of 2023 and whose $18.5 million salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 18. The Vikings noticeably haven’t extended the contract of Justin Jefferson, who is set to make $19.7 million in 2024 on the fifthyear option. The Vikings have a history of trading receivers and drafting new ones, i.e. when they traded Diggs and drafted Jefferson in 2020.
And the 49ers enter the offseason tight against the salary cap (currently about $15 million over), meaning Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk could be available in a trade, with Samuel and his $22 million compensation the likelier candidate.
■ Fixing the kickoff.
The NFL achieved its goal of reducing concussions on kickoffs, but nobody is happy that it’s now a “dead, ceremonial play” in the words of NFL executive vice president Troy Vincent. The touchback rate of 73 percent in 2023 was by far the highest in NFL history (previous high: 61.2 percent in 2020), and the NFL saw a record-low four kickoff return touchdowns all season.
The competition committee will meet at the Combine to begin formal discussions about how to increase return rates while minimizing concussions on kickoffs. It’s not an easy solution.
■ The champs and their defense. The Chiefs won the Super Bowl on the backs of their No. 2-ranked scoring defense, and now have two key free agents in defensive tackle Chris Jones and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed. Jones made clear at the championship parade that he wants to return, but he’ll be costly. The franchise tag at $32 million seems unlikely, but the Chiefs will likely have to pony up a multiyear deal that averages at least $30 million, the going rate for the top defensive tackles, Aaron Donald and Daron Payne. Sneed could be a franchise tag candidate at $18.7 million.
■ Saquon Barkley — again. Remember hearing Barkley’s name ad nauseum last offseason when the Giants gave him the franchise tag but couldn’t work out a long-term deal? Hope you’re ready for more. The franchise tag at $12.1 million doesn’t seem likely this time for Barkley, a 27-year-old running back who averaged just 3.9 yards per carry last year. Don’t be surprised if the Giants ultimately let him walk.
■ Franchise tags. The franchise tag window opened last Tuesday and runs until March 5 at 4 p.m. Candidates include Bengals WR Tee Higgins, Panthers DE Brian Burns, Jaguars DE Josh Allen, Buccaneers S Antoine Winfield
Jr. and WR Mike Evans, Dolphins DT Christian Wilkins, Patriots S Kyle Dugger, Bears CB Jaylon Johnson, and Colts WR Michael Pittman.
■ Other top free agents. Free agency begins March 13 at 4 p.m. Some of the top names available, including any of those listed above who do not receive a franchise tag: Seahawks DT Leonard Williams, Vikings DE Danielle Hunter, Bears S Eddie Jackson, Titans RB Derrick Henry, Cowboys CB Stephon Gilmore and LT Tyron Smith, Bills S Micah Hyde, Chargers RB Austin Ekeler, Buccaneers LB Lavonte David, Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley, Ravens LB Patrick Queen, Colts CB Kenny Moore, and
Bills WR Gabe Davis.