String of near-disasters should be wake-up call for aviation industry
Two JetBlue planes touched wingtip to tail in the de-icing area at logan international Airport on Feb. 8, a year after another JetBlue plane at the airport nearly hit a learjet. the logan incident followed a fiscal year in which there were nearly two dozen serious so-called “runway incursions” in the united states, up from 16 in fiscal 2022.
The jets that touched at logan were pulled from service, and an investigation was launched. For passengers, this incident was an annoyance, an inconvenience, something akin to a near miss. But not to experts. “i wouldn’t call that a near miss,” said thomas Hirsch, a pilot and aviation consultant based in Bedford. “i’d call that a collision.”
The uptick in serious runway incursions coincides with delays in training and hiring of air traffic controllers and other workers due to COViD-19 and a steady drum beat of retirements, resulting in more reliance on rookies. While the cause of every incident differs, the industry could calm the jitters of the flying public by devoting more time and funding to training those new workers — and easing up on adding more flights until the problems subside.
Statistically, flying is remarkably safe: last year there wasn’t a single fatal accident involving commercial jets in regular service. Yet “minor” incidents are on the upswing. the loss of a “door plug” on an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 max 9 over tacoma in January — though quite different than bumper car-like episodes on airport tarmacs — fell into the same category: a serious problem that could have been much, much more serious.
Few major accidents, but more minor ones. What is happening here? And what can be done about this trend before a catastrophe occurs?
Throughout the history of commercial aviation, revolutionary safety improvements have tended to follow disasters. Cockpit voice recorders were introduced following a series of fatal crashes by the first commercial jet airliner, the de Havilland Comet. new pilot-to-tower language protocols were established after a runway collision between two Boeing 747s in tenerife, spain, in 1977 (to this day, the deadliest airline accident in history, with 583 fatalities). And we all know how security was revolutionized after the clear september morning in 2001 when American Airlines Flight 11 and united Airlines Flight 175 took off from logan with box cutter-armed terrorists sitting in first class.
But we cannot wait for a catastrophe. these recent episodes, minor as they appear, should be embraced as catalysts for investigation and, if need be, change. the industry and regulators need to dig down now and figure out what is behind this trend. that could mean slowing down the hot-revving pace of passengers returning to the skies — and bringing with them profits — that the industry is experiencing following the near collapse of the sector during COViD-19. Domestic traffic for 2023 rose 30.4 percent, bringing it above pre-pandemic levels — 45,000 flights a day in united states airspace.
Reducing flight numbers as more time is taken to train new air traffic recruits and other staff could mean fewer choices and higher prices for passengers, at least in the short term, but these are sacrifices worth making.
Theories abound as to what’s causing the current spate of scares. Federal Aviation Administration reports cite a lack of sufficient funding as one reason it can’t train more controllers more quickly, while experts and analysts, while not disagreeing, also blame the long tail of the COViD aftermath.
All air traffic controllers undergo training at the FAA Academy in Oklahoma City, which was closed for six months during the pandemic. Colleges that train other aviation employees also closed or went strictly remote for varying periods. But retirements continued at their regular pace. in 2022, the latest year for which figures are available, there were 10,578 air traffic controllers working, down from 11,753 in september 2012, according to a 2023 FAA report.
The personnel needs of the aviation industry going forward are ravenous. And it’s not just controllers. Boeing, in its annual industry report last year, estimated that commercial aviation will need 649,000 pilots, 690,000 technicians, and 938,000 cabin crewmembers over the next 20 years. the report marked the first increase in the annual forecast since the pandemic began in 2020. that’s a lot of new blood in any industry.
While we don’t know who to blame for the logan bump, we do know that competence in this complex industry — where a minor slipup can have fatal consequences — comes not just from the classroom but also from experience. (A famous Alaska bush pilot saying comes to mind: “there are bold pilots and there are old pilots. But there are no old, bold pilots.”)
“The factors go back to the beginnings of COViD, when a lot of experienced people left the business,” Hirsch said. “And what they took with them was their years of experience. As we bring up new people, whether it be pilots in the front of the airplane or mechanics in the hangar, they don’t have that basis of knowledge that doesn’t come from the manual, it comes from having worked in that position for a lot of years.”
After the door plug fell off the 737 max over tacoma, Boeing instituted a one-day “quality stand down.” All production, delivery, and support work was paused so employees could take a breath and focus on reviewing how they do their jobs, and how to do them best. Yes, it’s unrealistic to pause the thousands of flights that crisscross the country every day, but Boeing was on the right track here.
Regulators shouldn’t be shy about tapping the brakes on any new routes or other expansions until the industry as a whole gets a better grip on safety. profits will come; executives need to be patient. there are enough warning signs that this is an industry that is stressed. At the very least, let’s slow everything down while we get some answers.