Some questions before Iowa and New Hampshire vote
We’re only three weeks from the Iowa caucuses and four from the New Hampshire primary, but even at this late date there are more plausible scenarios on the Republican side than can fit into one column. Voters in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Concord and Manchester are now being bombarded with advertising, candidate visits and phone calls.
Here’s what to watch over the next month. • Now through Jan. 31 Watch the polls for Iowa and New Hampshire. But look at the polling averages ( such as HuffPollster and Real Clear Politics); with lots of surveys out there, we’re going to hear plenty of noise.
The polls in Iowa have been stable for the last few weeks. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz holds a slim lead over billionaire Donald Trump. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is in third place.
Yet plenty of chances to shake things up remain. Thursday’s GOP debate in South Carolina and one on Jan. 28 give the candidates one opportunity to break out. Cruz’s surge makes him a natural target, whether in the debates or in ads. Will candi- dates pile on? Will Rubio’s heavy spending on TV advertising and his continuing trickle of endorsements give him a boost? • Iowa caucuses, Feb. 1 The big if is whether Trump’s supporters will show up. My strong guess is he won’t do as well as the polls would indicate. But there’s no way to predict his turnout, since many of his voters don’t fit the profile of regular caucus attendees. Cruz appears to have the strongest organization. Will that give him more of a leg up in the final polls, not only helping him to win but also to beat expectations?
• From Iowa to Feb. 8 New Hampshire primary
Currently, the polls show Trump with a large lead in New Hampshire, and four mainstream conservatives – Rubio, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush – all bunched closely for second, along with Cruz. Small changes can set off late surges and collapses, which are common in New Hampshire. In part that’s because media attention for a candidate, perhaps after a good showing in Iowa, builds momentum when people suddenly learn more about him or her.