Russian ambassador to Turkey assassinated

Both Turkish and Russian officials labeled the assassination of Andrey Karlov, Moscow's envoy to Turkey, at an art exhibition in Ankara as a "terrorist" attack. Karlov was shot in the back by a gunman who, according to reports, proceeded to shout jihadist slogans.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the attack was "a provocation" that wouldn't impact the current thaw in relations between Moscow and Ankara, which were plunged into crisis last year as the two countries took differing sides in Syria's civil war. Russia's intervention in the war on behalf of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad infuriated Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who was one of the first world leaders to call for Assad's departure.

In the months since, Turkey had to calibrate its position as the Assad regime dug in and Syrian Kurdish factions galvanized support among Turkey's restless Kurdish minority. Recently, Turkey has worked closely with Russia to find a solution for civilians trapped in the war-ravaged Syrian city of Aleppo.

That doesn't mean all Turks accept Russia's role in a conflict that rages on their doorstep. Protests were held outside Russian diplomatic buildings in Istanbul and Ankara. At the scene of Karlov's murder, before he himself was killed by Turkish security personnel, the shooter reportedly declared his actions were retribution for Russia's role in bombing rebel-held areas of Aleppo.

Analysts cautioned against alarmist fears of a collapse in diplomatic ties between the two countries.

"No, this is not Sarajevo 1914," tweeted Turkish columnist Mustafa Akyol, referring to the assassination of a Hapsburg royal by a Serbian nationalist that preceded World War I. "For Ankara and Moscow will not wage war. Quite the contrary, they may even get closer."

Still, Erdogan faces an awkward geopolitical predicament. Turkey's relations with the West are at a low ebb, with many governments condemning Erdogan's purge of opponents in the wake of a failed coup attempt this summer. He will be compelled to make concessions to Russia after the slaying of its ambassador.

"This could not have come at a worst time for Erdogan who had been carefully negotiating with Putin over Syria. At a time when his relationship with the U.S. and Europe has soured, the appearance of a rapprochement with Russia was something he needed," said Henri Barkey, director of the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson Institute in Washington. "Now, he will find that his hand with the Russians is even weaker than ever and one can be sure that Putin will milk this as much as he can behind closed doors while offering platitudes in public about unchanging relations. The only thing to be decided is the price Erdogan will have to pay."

In a statement emailed to media by the Turkish president's office, Erdogan said that in a phone conversation with Putin on Monday, the duo "agreed to further strengthen our collaboration particularly in the international fight against terror in the forthcoming days."

What that means is yet unclear.