Weakening El Nino may fire up hurricane season

Forecasters again lowered the odds of El Nino forming by year's end, a scenario that may mean more Atlantic hurricanes at a time when federal agencies charged with predicting and responding to natural disasters lack top administrators.

The updated forecast, which is more reliable than earlier versions, sees a 36 percent chance El Nino will emerge between October and December, the U. S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. That's down from 46 percent last month and 53 percent in March.

The forecast comes one week into the Atlantic hurricane season and as the Federal Emergency Management Administration lacks an administrator to replace Craig Fugate, who left office in January.

President Donald Trump has nominated Brock Long, who led the Alabama Emergency Management Agency from 2008 to 2011, though he has yet to be confirmed by the Senate. Robert Fenton is serving as acting administrator.

For El Nino to form, "there are certain things you are looking for and we are not seeing them," said Michelle L'Heureux, a forecaster with the climate center in College Park, Maryland. "This month is a little bit clearer. Now we are beyond the spring barrier and the models have shifted."

El Nino, a warming of the equatorial Pacific that triggers a change in weather patterns, fuels winds that weaken Atlantic storms. Without that brake, more powerful systems may form, increasing the risk of a hit for the U.S., Mexico, the Caribbean and Central American. Forecasters at Colorado State University and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have cited El Nino's weakening prospects in calling for an above-aver- age Atlantic storm season.

FEMA's primary role is to coordinate the response to disasters that overwhelm state and local authorities. No one knows the political perils of even the perception of a poor federal response better than President George W. Bush, who was widely criticized for FEMA's performance after Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans in 2005. NOAA, the federal agency responsible for weather forecasting, also lacks an administrator.