Next immigration move might be worse yet

It is becoming obvious that if President Donald Trump goes through with terminating the program protecting 800,000 "dreamers" from deportation, the backlash is going to be ferocious – perhaps rivaling the blowback that met Trump's pardoning of Joe Arpaio or his refusal to unambiguously condemn the Charlottesville white supremacists. Business executives are warning Trump not to take the plunge, and some Republicans, no doubt mindful of this brewing backlash, are beginning to suggest they will act to protect them on their own.

But the blowback might be even worse than the White House or Republicans anticipate.

Here's why. Ending the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program could have terrible consequences for a large population that has not yet gotten the attention it deserves: Dreamers who are enrolled in schools and universities. While the focus has understandably been on the enormous numbers of dreamers who will lose work permits and jobs if DACA is terminated, the disruptive impact this might have on students could add another dimension to the story, one that will garner more media attention, should this happen.

Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals has made it easier for large numbers of dreamers to attend universities, primarily by granting them temporary lawful status, offering them the stability and protection from removal that facilitated the pursuit of higher education. This is one key way in which DACA has allowed this population to set down deeper roots in the United States and prepare for a future in which they will contribute positively to American life.

But ending DACA could upend this arrangement. The problem is not necessarily that, without DACA status, these people could no longer legally attend colleges. Rather, Democrats worry that they will have to make very tough decisions as to whether they should continue, because they could be subject to removal in the near term, or have no certainty about their futures in the United States over the long term, or both.

"Ending the program presents a very difficult choice for individual students, because the value of investing in your own education depends on whether you are able to live and work openly or not," Rep. Luis Gutiérrez, D-Ill., told me in an emailed statement. "As the academic year begins, this could be a huge disruption for college and school administrators."

Indeed, there are signs some universities are already gaming out what this scenario means for them and their DACA students. Immigration attorney David Leopold told me this morning that he has been consulting with universities who have asked him whether, by removing protections from deportation, that would mean Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents might come on to campus to pursue removals, and what their options are if that happens.

"Universities are trying to figure out what their policy will be," Leopold told me. "Their first concern has been, how do we protect our students? They see this as disrupting their students' education. They are asking, what do we do if ICE comes on campus looking for our students?"

Remember, by signing up for DACA, its recipients have shared information about their identities and whereabouts with the government, facilitating their removal if ICE wants to. Of course, it's very possible nothing like that will happen. A lot depends on how Trump rescinds DACA (if he goes through with it).

If the basic signal is that it's now open season on former DACA recipients, then we could see removals – or at least, this is one scenario advocates fear. But even if there aren't removals – even if DACA recipients are designated as a very low priority for removal – many still may face tough choices about their educational futures, due to uncertainty about their long term presence here.

It's not easy to estimate the size of this population. A study of more than 3,000 dreamers recently released by the Center for American Progress found that 45 percent of respondents are currently in school, and of that group, 72 percent are currently pursuing a bachelor's degree or a higher degree. Respondents reported pursuing degrees in all kinds of fields, from civil engineering to early childhood education to environmental science to neuroscience to social work. Given that there are now 800,000 people on DACA, this population may be substantial.

This may or may not weigh on Trump's decision – he has to decide whether to keep the program in the face of a threat from a coalition of states to sue to overturn it if he does not end it himself. But even if it doesn't, this could still matter, because it could put added pressure on Congress, particularly Republicans, to legislate a solution for the dreamers if their protections are removed.