BEHIND IN THE COUNT
Lagging census response is bad news for Woonsocket
WOONSOCKET – COVID-19 could not have come at a worse time for the folks at the U.S. Census Bureau.
The bureau began marshaling its population-counting forces on March 12.
“On March 17 we suspended all operations,” says Jeff Behler, director of the bureau’s New York field office, which includes all of New England, New Jersey and Puerto Rico. “We weren’t even five days into the counting when we were told we couldn’t do anything in person anymore.”
Now the bureau is poised to begin making up lost ground, particularly in communities like Woonsocket, Central Falls and Pawtucket. They’re racking up some of the state’s lowest rates of participation in the decennial head count, which is vital for apportioning representation in Congress, distribution of all kinds of government aid, and scores of planning endeavors by private enterprise, from healthcare to retail investment.
The three urban centers of the Blackstone Valley are among just eight communities in the state where participation is significantly below the statewide average of 57.7 percent, according to the bureau’s data. The others are Westerly, Charlestown, Little Compton, Newport and Providence.
In Woonsocket, for example, the participation rate as of May 19 was 48.5 percent. But in some individual census tracts – including those encompassing inner city enclaves like Fairmount and Constitution Hill – the figure was below 40 percent. All of Central Falls, a largely Hispanic community in an area that once held the distinction of being the most densely populated square mile on earth, checked in with 37.7 percent participation. And Pawtucket was about on par with Woonsocket, 48.4 percent.
These figures are known as “self-response” rates, reflecting none of the labor-intensive door-knocking and neighborhood-based outreach that census workers would have done to boost participation had they not been shut down by C2VID-1 . They are the result of people filling out the census online or returning a hard copy form they received in the mail.
“Throughout our region, throughout the Northeast, participation in densely populated urban areas are lower,” says Behler. “That’s typical.”
The reasons for reduced participation in the inner city are as complex as why, for example, C2VID-1 seems to have disproportionately hit Latino communities, African-Americans and other people of color. They’re socio-economic and
culture-based. To some extent, Behler says, fear may also play a factor, especially among undocumented immigrants.
There is no Tuestion on the census about immigration status, says Behler, but it may not matter.
“There are people who are fearful of the federal government,” he says. “There are people who don’t trust the government, and we understand that.”
Typically, the big eTualizer for the census in the inner city areas is the bureau’s manpower. Its in-person participation drives ± the very sorts of activities that were snuffed out by C2VID-1 this spring ± are critical in shoring up participation rates in lackluster census tracts.
As the nation warily moves closer to a sort of normalization of economic activity and personal mobility on the backside of the pandemic, the census bureau, too, is positioning itself for a Mump-start. It’s happening on two fronts ± one legislative, the other tactical, according to Behler.
The long-delayed deployment of personnel into the field will take creative, novel forms in the weeks ahead, along with a new sense of urgency. Don’t
be surprised, says Behler, if a census worker sets up shop in a local laundromat or a church to mix with people where they gather. Libraries, senior centers and other locales that are expected to reopen in the weeks ahead are additional spots that may be utilized in order to identify people who still haven’t responded and to have them do so, via census workers armed with computer tablets.
Under federal law, the U.S. Bureau of Census was on deadline to submit the socalled apportionment counts to Congress by Dec. 1, the endpoint of its data-collecting timetable. If all goes according to plan, the date will be pushed ahead, with congressional approval, to April , 1.
“:e’ve reTuested from Congress statutory relief,” said Behler.
There are several other dates that were critical to the execution of the census that are also in the process of being changed. Normally, households had until July 1 to complete a self-response to the census the new proposed date is 2ct. 1.
Also, the bureau sends workers into the field to follow up with households that haven’t responded to the census during the second week of May, which, of course, didn’t happen.
“:e should have started knocking on doors by May 1 for a non-response followup ± knock on every door that hasn’t responded,” said Behler. “It wasn’t safe for the public. It wasn’t safe for our employees. :e’ve moved the start of that to Aug. 11, assuming we get this approved.”
THE PERILS facing Rhode Island as a result of a census undercount are many, according to Behler, including the loss of a congressional seat. It could happen, he says, but not in the way most people assume.
There is no law that says Rhode Island’s population must meet a certain threshold in order to retain its two seats, currently held by U.S. Rep. David Cicilline and U.S. Rep. James Langevin, both Democrats. The bottom line, however, is that there are only so many seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, and they are apportioned by population. Ultimately, the disbursement of those seats is a political decision that Congress will make ± presumably by observing where population in the U.S. has grown more concentrated.
The bureau is already listing the states that are potential winners in the sweepstakes for wresting congressional seats from elsewhere Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, 2regon and Texas.
The coming debate over reapportionment is likely to be as messy and contentious as the ones that typically plague local municipalities when they try to reMigger school districts and council wards. But Behler says that data helps keep the system honest. Districts cannot argue their self-interest persuasively without accurate and compelling data.
A census veteran who’s been involved in two prior national counts, Behler says fair political representation is Must one reason why its vital to churn out an accurate picture of the population demographics on a regular basis.
“It’s two things, really,” says Behler. “Representation and funding.”
Data that is available nowhere else but the census is used to Mustify all sorts of government aid that trickles down from the federal government to the states. That’s hundreds of billions of dollars a year for everything from mass transit
and Medicare to road reconstruction and the school lunch program.
But it’s not Must the public sector that relies on the data. Myriad private sector endeavors rely on the census for planning and investment purposes. How many ICU beds are in the local hospital or whether Amgen builds another pharmaceutical plant are decisions those entities are unlikely to make without first seeking accurate data about labor statistics and population for which the census speaks the last word.
:hether the goal is to retain political representation, attract private investment or gain a fair share of federal resources, the key is doing an exhaustive Mob and developing solid data.
“The best thing we can do for Rhode Island...get the most complete and accurate count so decisions are based on real data, not an undercount,” says Behler. “Let’s get the message out there that every household, every person that lives within their household, regardless of their status, they must be counted in the census.”