Bubble blows open title race
Raptors, Celtics, Nuggets believe they have shot of reaching NBA Finals
KISSIMMEE, Fla. — The longest title chase in NBA history launched in early July 2019, when Kawhi Leonard left the Toronto Raptors for the Los Angeles Clippers, launching a crosstown rivalry with LeBron James’s Lakers and clearing a path through the East for Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks.
For more than a year, James, Antetokounmpo and Leonard have battled for the right to be called the sport’s best player. Leonard got the best of James on opening night back in October, then starred in a sneaker ad that declared Los Angeles
was now “his city.” Antetokounmpo beat James in December, celebrating a three-pointer by placing an invisible crown on his head. James got revenge against both in March shortly before basketball shut down because of the novel coronavirus pandemic, then opened the NBA’s restricted Disney World bubble by hitting a game-winner and stonewalling Leonard to beat the Clippers.
Theirs is a classic rock, paper, scissors dilemma. James is the savvy elder statesman, the most famous, accomplished and experienced, but tasked with the heaviest burden given the roster around him. Antetokounmpo is the youngest, biggest, strongest and most imposing, but also the most erratic and least proven. Leonard is the most calculating, refined and mysterious, shying away from media attention whenever possible and carefully pacing himself given an extensive injury history.
Despite the four-month hiatus, oddsmakers continue to view the Big Three’s teams - the Lakers, Bucks and Clippers - as the favorites to win the Larry O’Brien trophy in October, with a second tier composed of the Raptors, Houston Rockets and Boston Celtics trailing far behind. Yet two weeks of bubble play have revealed new vulnerabilities for the top three contenders as the playoffs open Monday.
For the 35-year-old James, whose Lakers claimed the West’s top seed, the bugaboo has been offense during an underwhelming 3-5 bubble stretch. Before the shutdown, the Lakers ranked seventh in scoring, 22nd in three-pointers per game and 17th in three-point percentage. Among the 22 teams invited to Florida, the Lakers have ranked 21st in scoring, 21st in three-pointers and 22nd in three-point percentage, averaging 7.9 fewer points per game than they did before the hiatus. Such results are inconceivable given James’s track record of leading elite offenses.
There have been strong moments, including the opening win over the Clippers, Anthony Davis’s 42-point effort against the Utah Jazz and Kyle Kuzma’s game-winning three-pointer against the Denver Nuggets. Even so, the Lakers have looked overly reliant upon James and Davis, struggling to find a consistent third scorer and becoming unsettled whenever James goes to the bench. The loss of veteran guards Avery Bradley (coronavirus concerns) and Rajon Rondo (broken thumb) haven’t helped.
Following a flat loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder last week, James cryptically alluded to “some things that you can’t control that’s here, that I really don’t want to talk about, that’s off the floor.” He also acknowledged the Lakers were still adjusting to life in the bubble, calling it a “learning experience for all of us.”
While the Lakers clearly prioritized health over winning meaningless games in the bubble, they will need to shoot significantly better from outside if they hope to make a deep playoff run. Throughout the past five years, premier outside shooting teams such as the Golden State Warriors and Rockets have dominated the West playoffs. Complicating matters further: The Lakers’ path to the Finals could see them face the Portland Trail Blazers, Rockets and Clippers, three of the NBA’s most prolific three-point shooting teams in the bubble.
--If James needs to get the Lakers’ offense back on track, Antetokounmpo must help the Bucks more effectively close out wins. Before the shutdown, the Bucks were one of the most dominant teams in league history, posting the NBA’s best record, winning by an average of 11.3 points and compiling a league-leading 19 blowout wins by 20 or more points. At Disney World, Milwaukee has gone 3-5 and blown late leads in close losses to the Rockets, Brooklyn Nets and Dallas Mavericks.
“It’s amazing to beat teams by 10, 20, 30,” Antetokounmpo said, after the sloppy Bucks relinquished an eightpoint lead in the final three minutes against the Rockets. “We learned from this. It’s good to play close games. We didn’t play a lot of close games in the other 65 games that we played. We’ve got to be consistent and do it every night. The most important thing is to get shots. We can’t turn the ball over. We’ve got to find the open man and get shots up.”
Ball control is one issue, as are body control and emotion control. Antetokounmpo nearly fouled out of a bubble-opening win against the Celtics before the referees intervened to overturn calls on his behalf. He then committed five fouls in 30 minutes against the Miami Heat, fouled out in 33 minutes against the Mavericks and was ejected from a win over the Washington Wizards for head-butting Moe Wagner.
“Terrible action,” Antetokounmpo said of his headbutt, which came after several hard fouls and drew a one-game suspension. “If I could turn back time and go back to that play, I wouldn’t do it. I think I’ve done a great job all year [and] in my career at keeping my composure and [focusing] on the game, but we’re all human and make mistakes.”
Antetokounmpo averaged 10 free throw attempts this season, and he can expect to receive physical treatment from opponents throughout the playoffs. His length, power and improved ballhandling make him a constant presence in the basket area, and his career-low 63.3 percent free throw shooting gives overpowered opponents incentive to hack him.
Bucks Coach Mike Budenholzer has dismissed concerns about rough play and Antetokounmpo’s potential responses, noting that the 25-year-old forward “has been dealing with this for a long time.” Still, Milwaukee is so reliant upon Antetokounmpo to generate offense with his slashing drives and kick-out passes that it can’t afford any additional missteps. The Orlando Magic shouldn’t pose much of a problem in the first round, but the Bucks will probably need to get through the Miami Heat and the Raptors or Celtics to reach the Finals for the first time since 1974.
- - Like Antetokounmpo, Leonard has had a few lategame moments in the bubble that he would like to do over. On the final play against the Lakers, he drove indecisively against James, passing the ball at the last second rather than taking a potential game-winner. In a narrow loss to the Phoenix Suns, he opted against double-teaming on the final play, setting up Devin Booker for a cleaner look at a memorable buzzer-beater.
These were uncharacteristic lapses in judgment from the steely Leonard, whose clutch shots and defensive stops were central to the Raptors’ 2019 title push. Of greater concern to the Clippers is their lack of lineup continuity.