Yankees scuffling in September
After four straight losses, New York sitting third in AL East
“Anything can happen in a shortened season,” the entire, baseball-focused world asserted at the outset of this truncated, 60-game schedule. But that was a hyperbole. Even with such a small sample size of games, there were certain things that remained impossible - such as the New York Yankees getting chased down for the final American League playoff spot by the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers or Seattle Mariners.
And yet, with less than three weeks remaining on the regular season calendar, such an unfathomable outcome is very much in play – thanks to the Yankees’ shocking, three-week freefall from their customary perch in first place in the AL East, and the pesky persistence of the Orioles, Tigers and Mariners.
Those teams combined to lose 316 games in 2019, while the Yankees were winning 103 and advancing to the AL Championship Series. But if one thing is true of this chaotic, frenetic season, it’s that nothing that occurred in 2019 has any relevance this year.
An ugly, 12-7 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays – a game played in Buffalo, where the Blue Jays relocated for this season when the Canadian government blocked them from playing in Toronto – was the Yankees’ fourth straight and their 14th in their last 19 games. It saw the Yankees’ bullpen give up a 10-spot to the Blue Jays in the sixth inning, wiping out what had been a four-run lead.
Having once held the best record in the AL, at 16-6, the Yankees have plummeted to 21-20, holding on perilously to the eighth and final playoff spot in that league. They entered Tuesday just a half-game up on the Orioles and Tigers in the loss column and just two up on the Mariners, who are 12-4 since bottoming out in mid-August.
“It’s something we just have to pull out of,” veteran outfielder Brett Gardner said on a video interview with reporters over the weekend, as the Yankees lost three straight in Baltimore to the Orioles, a team they had beaten 19 straight times before then. “. . . We’ve got some baseball left. We’re still in position to make the make the playoffs and hopefully attain our goal, which is to be the last team standing. But the way we’ve played lately is not acceptable.”
It would be easy to point to injuries as the chief reason for the Yankees’ plummet. D.J. LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton – the first four hitters in their preferred lineup – have all spent time on the injured list, and Judge and Stanton remain there, unlikely to return until the end of this month. Lefty James Paxton and third baseman Gio Urshela are also sidelined for the time being.
But every team has dealt with injuries – perhaps none more so that the Tampa Bay Rays, who led the AL standings at 28-14 entering Tuesday. The Yankees’ issues go deeper than injuries. Catcher Gary Sanchez is hitting .130 and slugging .350. Gardner is hitting .170 and slugging .309. Gerrit Cole, their $324 million ace, hasn’t won a decision in nearly four weeks and is allowing opposing batters an .812 OPS since August 1, up from a career mark of .660. And their vaunted bullpen is short on reliable, late-inning options.
When they were 16-6, the Yankees were hitting .263/.352/.487, with 40 homers in 22 games. But during their 5-14 skid, the corresponding numbers are .205/.304/.354, and 21 homers in 19 games. Since Aug. 18, when the skid began, their bullpen has a 6.16 ERA and a collective wins above replacement of minus-1.4.
“We need to get past it. We need to play better, obviously,” manager Aaron Boone said on a video interview with reporters. “. . . We’ve all got to step it up here. Obviously, the season’s getting shorter and shorter, and we’ve got to find a way right now when it’s difficult.”
By virtue of sheer talent, the Yankees should be expected to turn things around over the next few weeks and sail into the playoffs. The simulated playoff projections at FanGraphs had them with an 89 percent chance of making the postseason as of Tuesday – in large part because they have the easiest remaining schedule of any AL team.
And with every playoff team guaranteed a three-game series in the first round this year – as opposed to the winor-die wild-card games of previous postseasons – the Yankees’ depth and talent, particularly as their superstars return to action, means they are just as likely to get hot in October and make another deep run as they are to back into the playoffs and flame out in the first round.
Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman was essentially gambling on that scenario when he stood pat at the trade deadline, refusing to part with his young, controllable assets for the quickfix add of a veteran starting pitcher or bat. But on the afternoon of the trade deadline, Aug. 31, the Yankees were still 19-13 and within striking distance of the first-place Rays. Since then they are 2-7.
In the interest of survival, the Yankees would be well advised to climb high enough in the standings to avoid a first-round matchup with the top-seeded (at this point) Rays, against whom they are 2-8 this season with no remaining head-to-head matchups.
In a typical season, a team’s first 40-some-odd games, just a quarter of a normal regular season, represent an evaluation period, where the front office gets a read on what the team has, what it needs, and where it’s heading. Time is a luxury. There are months ahead in which to figure things out.
In 2020, 40 games is two-thirds of the season. The stretch run is already here. And if the Yankees are going to turn around their trend, they had better start soon.