Parity rules headed into final 7 weeks of season
Another week brought another head-spinning result for a team at the top of the NFL. The AFC-leading Tennessee Titans had won six straight entering Sunday, including five consecutive against 2020 playoff teams. At home in the rain, the Titans unraveled in a 2213 loss to the Houston Texans, who intercepted Ryan Tannehill four times for their first win since Week 1.
In 2021, the moment you think a team might be great is the moment it proves it is not. Here is what to know.
- Parity rules. There is no dominant team at the top of the NFL, there is no clarity in the middle, and there is almost nobody out of playoff contention. The 92 Arizona Cardinals, who won again without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, are the only team in the NFL with fewer than three losses. The 091 Detroit Lions are the only team with fewer than two wins.
After 11 weeks, absolutely nothing is settled. Twenty-one teams squeeze into the territory between 4-7 and 7-4. The playoff picture is a mess in both conferences. In the AFC, seven teams fighting for the last two wild-card spots are between 6-4 and 5-5. In the NFC, the Washington Football Team was 26 two weeks ago, and now it is one game out of the playoff picture.
- Jonathan Taylor may be the most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL. The Indianapolis Colts stunned the Bills in Buffalo, 4115, trouncing a team in free fall from its perch as the AFC favorite. The Bills knocked the Colts out of the playoffs last season, and in their victorious locker room Sunday, Indianapolis players and coaches referenced “owing” the Bills. They built their victory on the shoulders of Taylor, who in Derrick Henry’s absence has emerged as the closest thing to Henry: the best running back in the NFL and a one-man offense on an AFC South contender.
Taylor had four rushing touchdowns against the Bills and caught a pass for a score while rushing for 185 yards. Taylor leads the league with 1,122 rushing yards, putting him in position to challenge a 2,000yard season. Henry has 937 rushing yards, putting him second even though he hasn’t played in a month. Cleveland’s Nick Chubb ranks third at 851, nearly 300 out of first place.
Taylor was the 41st draft pick in 2020 and the third running back taken behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and D’Andre Swift. Though teams are wary of taking running backs early, there are some teams kicking themselves.
After a difficult schedule contributed to their 03 start, the Colts have climbed above .500 at 65. Taylor allows the Colts to play a style that can thrive anywhere, in any weather. If quarterback Carson Wentz can avoid the big mistake, the Colts will be exceedingly difficult to beat.
- The Bills lost their grip on the AFC East. At the end of last season, it looked as if the Bills had wrested control of the division for years to come. It took the New England Patriots 11 weeks to take it back. The Patriots ascended to first place with their dominant, 250 victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night and Buffalo’s loss Sunday. At plus123, the Patriots have the best point differential in the NFL. They are undeniably a Super Bowl threat.
The Bills are facing serious questions about their status as a contender. Quarterback Josh Allen has dealt with the same problem Patrick Mahomes faced for so much of this season: Defenses are playing a shell-like alignment with deep safeties, daring the Bills to beat them with short passes and the running game. The Bills have lacked the personnel and the discipline to defeat that strategy.
The Bills’ defense often has looked strong and they own a commanding victory over the Chiefs, but their other wins have come against Washington, the Miami Dolphins twice, the Texans and the New York Jets.
- Kirk Cousins is quietly having an elite season. And the Minnesota Vikings will have to be reckoned with in the final two months of the season. In perhaps the best game of the day, Cousins outdueled Aaron Rodgers and led the Vikings to a 3431 victory in Minneapolis. He passed for 341 yards, throwing for three touchdowns and no interceptions before leading a last-second field goal drive.
Cousins’s performance continued a sneaky-great season, at least by the numbers. He has completed 68.2 percent of his attempts while throwing 21 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Entering Week 11, Pro Football Focus graded Cousins as the second-best quarterback in the NFL this season, behind only Tom Brady. Cousins doesn’t have to carry the Vikings with Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson surrounding him. He has been excellent and efficient in distributing the ball.
The Vikings’ victory nudged them to 5-5, but they are likely much better than a .500 team. Amazingly, the Vikings have led by at least seven points in every game this season. Four of their losses came by four points or less, and the other came by a touchdown. They have proved they can play with any team, and Cousins has been a driving factor.
- The Kansas City Chiefs are winning with defense. As the Chiefs sputtered to a 34 start, their defense was routinely shredded. When it started to improve, its success was overshadowed by the first slump of Mahomes’s career. By now, it’s clear the Chiefs are surging back into contention not despite their defense but because of it.