Plenty at stake for bubble teams this weekend
Let’s set aside any chatter about NCAA tournament No. 1 seeds entering the penultimate weekend before the postseason, and instead let’s zero in on the teams that still might have some (or plenty of) work to do to pin down a spot in the men’s field of 68.
Rather than get too bogged down in minutiae - there’s plenty of time for that next week - here’s a quick tour of what’s at stake over the next three days and our latest bracket projection.
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1. Games to watch Plenty to gain
Oklahoma at day, 2, ESPN)
Creighton at Villanova urday, 2:30, Fox)
Clemson at Wake Forest (Saturday, 6, ACC Network)
Connecticut at Providence (Saturday, 8, Fox)
New Mexico at Utah State (Saturday, 8:30, CBS Sports Network)
Illinois at Iowa
Fox Sports 1)
Villanova (17-13, 10-9 Big East) goes for a season sweep of Creighton just three days after falling at Seton Hall. The Wildcats have other high-end victories (North Carolina and Texas Tech on a neutral court) but also three Quadrant 3 losses. … Oklahoma (20-10, 8-9 Big 12) is probably going to get in even if it loses out, but it definitely gets in if it wins in Austin. …
Wake Forest (18-12, 10-9 ACC) has played like a team fishing for an NIT bid of late, dropping three in a row since toppling Duke. The Demon Deacons will have work to do in the ACC tournament regardless, but the to-do list will be longer if they don’t beat Clemson. … Providence (19-11, 10-9 Big East) has already beaten Creighton and Marquette in Friartown. Can it make it a complete set of the Big East’s best teams when U-Conn. visits? …
New Mexico (22-8, 10-7 Mountain West) had little trouble with Fresno State on Wednesday, thereby avoiding a land mine. Winning at league leader Utah State would be a great asset to tack on to close the regular season. … Winners of four of five, Iowa (18-12, 10-9 Big Ten) had a midweek open date to prepare for the Fighting Illini, who were eliminated from Big Ten title contention with Tuesday’s loss to Purdue
Texas (Satur
Just handle business
(Sat(Sunday,
Texas
Gotta win on the road
7,
Memphis at Florida (Saturday, noon, CBS)
Central Florida at Christian (Saturday, 5)
Both Florida Atlantic (23-7, 13-4 American) and TCU (2010, 9-8 Big 12) would need a lot to go wrong to miss the tournament. But getting nudged into play-in territory isn’t an impossibility if they lose this weekend and in their respective conference tournament openers.
Atlantic
Texas A&M at (Saturday, 2, CBS)
Utah at Oregon Pac-12 Networks)
Ohio State at Rutgers day, 2, Big Ten Network)
Texas A&M (17-13, 8-9 SEC) is an interesting at-large candidate given its peaks (six Quad 1 victories) and valleys (four Quad 3 losses). Utah (1811, 9-9 entering Thursday) is the very definition of a borderline tournament team. Despite firing coach Chris Holtmann, Ohio State (18-12, 8-11 Big Ten) has earned a place on the periphery of tournament discussion after winning four of five since Jake Diebler took over.
Another team that arguably belongs in this category is Memphis (22-8, 11-6 American), which has won four in a row entering its trip to Florida Atlantic.
Mississippi (Saturday, 7, (Sun
Do no (self-) harm
Georgetown at St. (Saturday, noon, Fox)
West Virginia at Cincinnati (Saturday, 2)
Notre Dame at Virginia Tech (Saturday, 2:30, ESPNU)
Colorado State at Air (Saturday, 4)
Colorado at Oregon State (Saturday, 5, Pac-12 Networks)
N.C. State at Pittsburgh (Saturday, 7:45, CW)
Georgia Tech at Virginia (Saturday, 8, ACC Network)
DePaul at Seton Hall day, 8:30, Fox Sports 1)
Nebraska at Michigan (Sunday, noon, Big Ten Network)
No one anywhere near the edge of the field needs to take a Quad 3 loss at this point, which Cincinnati, Colorado, Pitt, Virginia and Virginia Tech would do with a defeat. And a Quad 4 loss could be severely damaging for Colorado State, Seton Hall and St. John’s. Losing at Michigan would probably only be a Quad 2 defeat, but it would still be Nebraska’s worst result of the year.
Sun Belt One-bid territory
(Sunday
John’s
(Saturday
Force (Satur
Conference tournament watch Missouri Valley
The top two seeds in Arch Madness get underway Friday, with a possible showdown in Sunday’s title game (2 p.m., CBS). Indiana State (26-5) ranked 46th or better in all five team sheet metrics entering Thursday’s games and would be a compelling at-large option if it loses. Drake (25-6) has a split with Indiana State and a neutral-site defeat of Nevada, making it a sleeper for a spot in the opening round if it loses the title game to the Sycamores.
No team has ever won more than 28 games and been left out of the NCAA tournament. James Madison (28-3), the Sun Belt’s No. 2 seed and owners of a victory at Michigan State, would be quite the test case. James Madison plays in the quarterfinals Saturday night, with a Sunday semifinal and a Monday title games.
Ohio Valley
8, ESPN2)
Big South noon, ESPN2)
Atlantic Sun (Sunday final, 2, ESPN2)
The OVC protects its top teams, so No. 1 seed Little Rock
final, final, (20-11) and No. 2 seed Tennessee Martin (21-10) don’t have to play until Friday’s semifinals. … The advantage in the Big South belongs to High Point (24-7), which secured tournament hosting duties even before it won the regular season. The Panthers open tournament play Friday against Radford. … No. 2 seed Stetson (21-12) has never been to the tournament since moving up to Division I in 1971-72, but the Hatters have a chance to break through when they host the Atlantic Sun title game against No. 4 seed Austin Peay (19-14). The Governors, who have won nine of 10, last reached the field of 68 in 2016.
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2. Field notes
Last four included: New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, St. John’s
First four on the outside: Providence, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, Villanova
Next four on the outside: Utah, Wake Forest, James Madison, Iowa
Moving in: Sam Houston State, Stetson, St. John’s
Moving out: Eastern Kentucky, Louisiana Tech, Utah
Conference call: Big 12 (9), SEC (7), Big Ten (6), Mountain West (6), ACC (4), Big East (5), Pac-12 (3), American Athletic (2), Atlantic 10 (2), West Coast (2)
Bracket projection: vs. West; East vs. Sout
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Memphis Indianapolis
Midwest
3. Midwest Region Indianapolis
(1) BIG TEN/Purdue vs. (16) SWAC/Grambling-ATLANTIC SUN/Stetson winner
(8) Boise State vs. Christian (9) Texas
Spokane, Wash.
(5) Clemson vs. (12) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/South Florida
(4) Auburn vs. (13) SOUTHERN/Samford
(3) Baylor vs. SOUTH/High Point
(6) Florida vs. (11) New Mexico/St. John’s winner
(14)
BIG
(7) WEST COAST/Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Oklahoma
(2) Marquette vs. (15) CONFERENCE USA/Sam Houston
State
There is no dislodging Purdue from the No. 1 line at this point, and probably no knocking them out of the top spot in the Midwest. The Boilermakers aren’t locked into the No. 1 overall spot just yet, but it’s hard to envision anyone other than Connecticut or Houston from doing so. … Auburn is in the top 14 of all five team sheet metrics, but the Tigers are also 1-7 in Quad 1 games and have not fared well away from home against tournament-caliber competition. Their seeding is going to be interesting. …
Baylor is pushing to get back onto the No. 2 line. The only teams with more than its eight Quad 1 victories are Houston (12), Connecticut (11) and Purdue (11). The only teams with more than 13 combined wins in Quad 1 and Quad 2 are Connecticut (17), Purdue (17), Houston (15) and Creighton (14). That’s a lot of high-end victories. … Saint Mary’s is the only team in the country without a road loss, going 9-0. In addition to sweeping the WCC away from home, the Gaels also won at Colorado State.
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4. West Region Charlotte
(1) SEC/Tennessee vs. (16) METRO ATLANTIC/Quinnipiac
(8) Texas lantic vs. (9) Florida At
Spokane, Wash.
(5) San Diego State vs. (12) SUN BELT/Appalachian State
(4) Illinois vs. (13) BIG
Omaha
(3) Kansas vs. (14) COASTAL/College of Charleston
(6) Wisconsin vs. (11) LANTIC 10/Richmond
Salt Lake City
Carolina
vs.
AT
(7) South
Seton Hall
(2) PAC-12/Arizona vs. (15) BIG SKY/Eastern Washington
Tennessee moves onto the top line after winning at South Carolina, but there really isn’t a huge difference between the Volunteers, Arizona and North Carolina. Bank on two of them ending up anchoring the West region. … Why the bump down to the No. 5 line for San Diego State, besides losing at scorching-hot UNLV? A 3-7 record in Quad 1 games
(10) and a place no higher than 19th in any of the five team sheet metrics. A No. 5 seed makes sense for the Aztecs. …
College of Charleston suffered two of its three CAA losses to UNC Wilmington, which it could face in Monday’s league semifinals if the early rounds of the tournament are chalky. … Seton Hall is the only team outside of the top 33 of the NET with six Quad 1 victories and no more than one combined loss to Quad 3 and 4 opponents. The Pirates were 63rd in the NET entering Thursday.
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5. East Region Brooklyn
(1) BIG EAST/Connecticut vs. (16) NORTHEAST/Central Connecticut State-MEAC/Norfolk State winner
(8) Northwestern vs. (9) Colorado State
Salt Lake City
(5) Brigham Young vs. (12) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Grand Canyon
(4) Kentucky vs. (13) AMERICA EAST/Vermont
Pittsburgh
(3) Duke vs. (14) HORIZON/ Oakland
(6) Washington State vs. (11) Michigan State
Omaha
(7) Nevada vs. (10) Mississippi State
(2) Iowa State vs. (15) SUMMIT/South Dakota State
Norfolk State will be the No. 1 seed in the MEAC tournament as it chases its third NCAA tournament berth in four seasons. …A reminder that Brigham Young’s policy not to play on Sundays means it can only be placed in the East or West brackets (both of which are Thursday/ Saturday regionals). …
Vermont begins America East tournament play Saturday. The Catamounts are seeking their third automatic bid in a row and fifth in seven tournaments. Vermont is 52-4 against league foes over the past three seasons, including the conference tournament. … If there was the slightest doubt about Nevada, it’s gone after the Wolf Pack dispatched Boise State on the road Tuesday.
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6. South Region Memphis
(1) BIG 12/Houston vs. (16) OHIO VALLEY/Little Rock
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Nebraska
Brooklyn
(5) MOUNTAIN WEST/Utah State vs. (12) IVY/Princeton
(4) Alabama vs. (13) SOUTHLAND/McNeese State
Pittsburgh
(3) Creighton vs. MID-AMERICAN/Akron
(6) Dayton vs. (11) Colorado/ Virginia winner
Charlotte
(14)
(7) Texas Tech vs. (10) MISSOURI VALLEY/Indiana State
(2) ACC/North Carolina vs. (15) PATRIOT/Colgate
Not only has Gonzaga made every NCAA tournament since 1999, it has won at least 25 games in each of the past 16 seasons. The Bulldogs (24-6) can extend that streak with a victory in the WCC semifinals. … Princeton (23-3) has already matched its victory total from last year. You might recall the Tigers reached the Sweet 16 in 2023. Mitch Henderson’s team closes the regular season Saturday at Penn. …
While Dayton hasn’t been unbeatable in the Atlantic 10, it hasn’t lost once at home this season entering Friday’s meeting with VCU. The Flyers are 3-3 in Quad 1 games and don’t have any losses to Quad 3 or Quad 4 opponents, which helps explain why they’re solidly in the field. … North Carolina can clinch the top seed in the ACC tournament (and a two-game margin in the league standings) with a victory at Duke on Saturday.