Tatum among stars who face playoff pressure
Boston star trying to get back to Finals
As the final week of the NBA’s regular season unfolds, certainty only goes so far: The 20 teams that will make up the postseason field have clinched their spots, but none of the first-round matchups have been set.
When the jockeying for seeding ends Sunday, the sport’s attention will return to the championship chase, which sees the Denver Nuggets shooting to repeat, the Boston Celtics lapping the field in the Eastern Conference and a murky pack of challengers. These five stars have the potential to bring the championship picture into focus, but they must distinguish themselves over the next two months or face the wrath of disappointed observers and yappy second-guessers.
Last season’s pressure-cooker candidates perfectly represent the boom-or-bust reality at play: Denver’s Nikola Jokic sloughed off years of doubts about his playoff capabilities with his crowning glory, while Ja Morant’s career imploded after the Memphis Grizzlies’ first-round exit and Kevin Durant’s Phoenix Suns undertook a radical overhaul after a second-round defeat.
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1. Damian Lillard, Bucks
Given the excitement that greeted his blockbuster trade from Portland in September, Lillard has a strong case as the NBA’s most underwhelming star. Look past his All-Star Game MVP performance and there are a bunch of lingering red flags: his unrefined partnership with Giannis Antetokounmpo, his central role in Milwaukee’s porous perimeter defense and his new team’s lack of chemistry.
Lillard and Antetokounmpo have yet to prove they can consistently make the Bucks’ whole greater than the sum of their parts. Instead of forging a smooth pick-androll partnership as many expected, Lillard has settled somewhat uncomfortably into a secondary role while Antetokounmpo occasionally has been marginalized in late-game situations. When the Bucks come across a playoff opponent capable of slowing Antetokounmpo’s assaults on the rim, their top-five offense will become heavily reliant upon Lillard’s three-point shooting, which has been streakier and less efficient this season than his career standard.
The acquisition of Lillard also required sacrifices in depth and two-way talent, leaving Milwaukee ranked 19th in defensive efficiency - the worst mark among the league’s top title contenders. In Portland, Lillard’s shortcomings as a defender were easy to look past because he was the sole engine of the offense and his supporting cast was usually overmatched. In Milwaukee, he is bound to be targeted by opposing coaches during the playoffs and could wind up looking like the weakest link.
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2. Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Much like the Bucks, the Celtics were plunged into existential crisis last summer by an unexpected postseason loss to the Heat. However, their major offseason additions - Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday - fit in quickly and neatly, boosting the juggernaut Celtics throughout a 60-plus-win season.
But Tatum, who is already heading into his seventh postseason appearance at 26, knows he will only be judged by the ending. His shaky showings to close the 2022 NBA Finals and the 2023 Eastern Conference finals surely contributed to Boston’s aggressive moves last summer, and he deserves credit for taking a half-step back on offense to accommodate the reinforcements. Tatum’s two-way contributions, consistency, excellent health and unselfishness clearly make him a top-five MVP candidate, even if his individual numbers aren’t as gaudy as some of his competition.
Depending on how the East’s matchups shake out, there are scenarios where Boston could skate to the East finals, which would only reinforce its Goliath status. Eventually, though, the Celtics will be tested, and they must perform better in late-game situations than they did in the past two postseasons. Porzingis and Holiday give Boston a wider range of options, but ultimately Tatum will find himself in position to decide games - by taking key shots or by making the right reads in the final minutes. Though Celtics management has set the table as well as it can for Tatum’s championship breakthrough, he must be the one to see it through.
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3. Rudy Gobert, Timberwolves
Minnesota’s massive 2022 trade for Gobert has paid off handsomely this season, making it easy to forget the French center was suspended for taking a swing at a teammate at this time last year. Indeed, Gobert, who was inexplicably snubbed from the all-star team, deserves more credit for his remarkable bounce back from those unfortunate shenanigans. He is probably headed for his fourth defensive player of the year award, and he has helped the Timberwolves to the second-best season in franchise history by captaining the NBA’s stingiest defense. Last season’s chemistry questions have given way to six months of consistent winning that has kept Minnesota at or near the top of the daunting Western Conference.
Despite that progress, Gobert isn’t widely regarded as a “16-game player,” the moniker crafted by his rival, Golden State Warriors star Draymond Green, to highlight stars capable of raising their games in the postseason. Dating from his time with the Utah Jazz, Gobert has played for winning teams in each of the past eight seasons but has won only three playoff series and never reached the conference finals. The simplistic nature of his screen-and-dive offensive game coupled with his periodic struggles to defend stars on the perimeter have prompted accusations that his regular season impact doesn’t translate to high-level playoff basketball.
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4. Bradley Beal, Suns
Simply put, Beal has been one of the league’s worst values on a production-per-dollar basis this season. The former Washington Wizards guard is earning $46.7 million - more than anyone besides Curry, Durant, James, Jokic and Joel Embiid yet he has appeared in only 49 games and has posted a pedestrian 15.4 Player Efficiency Rating. His first season in Phoenix has been a forgettable mashup of nagging injuries and clunky adjustments to his new life as a third wheel behind Durant and Booker. Despite having its own set of problems with Jordan Poole, Washington should be elated that it was able to ship out Beal’s five-year, $251 million contract last year.
Suns optimists would argue that the veteran-dominated, top-heavy team wasn’t designed for regular season dominance and shouldn’t be judged until the playoffs. Fair enough. Phoenix has won at a 50-game pace with Beal on the court and has closed strong, going 7-3 in its past 10 games entering Tuesday. In theory, there’s still enough firepower on hand to outscore virtually any team in the West bracket.
Actualizing postseason success will require Beal, who hasn’t played in the second round since 2017, to perform more effectively as a scorer, distributor and defender. Phoenix’s ninth-ranked offense must ascend to greater heights to compensate for its thin front line and mediocre defense, cutting down on turnovers through more careful ball movement. If the Suns fall to a more cohesive opponent such as the Nuggets or the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round, new owner Mat Ishbia’s decision to bet on Beal’s waning star power will elicit a new round of pointed criticism.
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5. Paul George, Clippers
The Clippers have lived through an unpredictable three-act play this season: After briefly struggling in the wake of the James Harden trade, they kicked into top gear for a sensational December and January before slogging through an uninspired closing stretch. With Kawhi Leonard nursing a late-season knee injury and Harden averaging just 15.2 points on 38.7 percent shooting since the all-star break, George must assert himself if the Clippers are going to prevail in the first round. His 39 points, including the game-winning jumper, to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday were just what the doctor ordered.