Is Karl Dean’s next move a run for governor?
KNOXVILLE — With his time as mayor of Nashville behind him, the next big question for Karl Dean is whether he’ll make one more political run: statewide office.
He’ll have a couple of years to decide whether he’s the guy who can turn around the fortunes of beleaguered Tennessee Democrats.
Dean doesn’t shy away from his interest in running as a Democrat for either U.S. Senate or governor in 2018. The latter option, which would be an open race to replace Gov. Bill Haslam, is the more widely speculated of the two contests for Nashville’s outgoing mayor.
“I’d like to stay involved in public life, in public affairs, but making the decision about whether you can do something else is a big decision,” Dean, 60, said in a recent interview with The Tennessean. “There’s family, there’s just realities of what the political landscape is and where I am.
“But obviously, I’m interested,” he said. “Obviously, I care. And I think I may have something to contribute, but I’m a long way from making a decision.”
Megan Barry was sworn in as the new mayor of
“BUT OBVIOUSLY, I’M INTERESTED. OBVIOUSLY, I CARE. AND I THINK I MAY HAVE SOMETHING TO CONTRIBUTE, BUT I’M A LONG WAY FROM MAKING A DECISION.” — KARL DEAN FORMER MAYOR OF NASHVILLE
Nashville on Friday, replacing term-limited Dean and concluding his eight years in the mayor’s office.
As Dean ponders his next move, he will have several activities to occupy his time. Dean, an outspoken proponent of charter schools, intends to chair a new school-choice education nonprofit called Project Renaissance. He’s also agreed to become a distinguished visiting professor at Belmont University while also traveling back and forth to Boston to help lead an urban affairs initiative at Boston University. He plans to co-write a book about Nashville as well.
At this point, he doesn’t have a timeline for making the call on running for higher office.
“You’ve just got to get yourself in the comfort zone where this is what you really want to do, and you really think you’ve really got something to offer, and you’re willing to put in that time,” Dean said, recalling his 2007 decision to run for mayor. “And there’s got to be a realistic chance that you’ve got a chance. Those things are all out there — 2018 seems like a long ways away right now.”
Indeed, there are still the 2016 presidential election and state legislative races before attention moves to the 2018 election cycle. The race for governor that year will include primaries for both parties that lack incumbents. Meanwhile, it’s still unclear whether Republican U.S. Sen. Bob Corker will seek a third term in 2018. Most view Dean as a possibility to run for U.S.
Senate only if Corker opts against seeking his party’s nomination.
Dean would also be a logical candidate for Nashville’s congressional House seat if an opening arose, but U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper, D-Nashville, has given no indication he plans to exit any time soon.
Short lists for both parties are getting bandied around for the 2018 governor’s race. Among those mentioned on the Democratic side is Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke, a former state senator, who told The Chattanooga Times Free Press last month he’s strictly focused on his job of mayor.
Dean, despite his share of critics, is considered a popular public figure in Nashville. His admirers say he leaves behind a legacy that includes boosting Nashville’s national profile that coincided with an ongoing economic boom. He pursued tax incentives to spur company growth, built major civic projects that reshaped downtown and received high marks in leadership during the city’s devastating flood in 2010. Meanwhile, his support for charter schools won him fans, but also critics — including some Democrats.
For a state party that has suffered massive losses in the state legislature over the past decade — and whose last statewide officeholder was Gov. Phil Bredesen in 2010 — Dean could present one of the Democrats’ strongest candidates to compete against Republicans three years from now.
“Karl Dean has been an amazing force propelling Nashville into ‘It’ city status,” said Mary Mancini, Tennessee Democratic Party chairwoman. “He has shown that communities flourish when everyone is treated with dignity, and that building a stronger middle class benefits all of us. We would welcome Mayor Dean as a candidate for governor, because as we have seen from his time as an elected official, when Democrats govern, Tennessee is a better place for everyone who lives and works.”
Nashville’s last outgoing mayor, Bill Purcell, ultimately decided against a statewide run. Before him was Phil Bredesen, who ran for governor twice (first while still in the mayor’s office in 1994), winning the second time in 2002. Both were Democrats.
The mayor’s office in Tennessee’s largest cities has proven to be a successful political launching pad. In addition to Bredesen, Republicans Corker and Haslam previously served as mayors in Chattanooga and Knoxville, respectively.
But Tennessee Democrats have struggled to field viable candidates in recent statewide races. Their most recent gubernatorial contender, who lost last year in a landslide to Haslam, was a man named Charlie Brown from Oakdale. He made headlines for capturing the party’s nomination without mounting a campaign.
“The mayor of Nashville is going to be somebody who’s high on the list of candidates that would be potential governors,” said state Sen. Jeff Yarbro, D-Nashville, who also singled out and praised Democrats Berke, Clarksville Mayor Kim McMillan, Knoxville Mayor Madeline Rogero and House Democratic Leader Craig Fitzhugh.
“The question on the other side is whether they’re going to have a candidate that’s focused on moving Tennessee forward or just trying to advance an ideological agenda,” he said.
Any of these Democrats, including Dean, would be considered an underdog to win the governor’s office in politically red Tennessee. Complicating matters in 2018 could be if a Democrat wins the White House in 2016. Mid-term elections are historically tougher for the party of a newly elected president.
Dean would be an intriguing candidate for a couple of reasons. He might be better equipped than others to raise the money needed for a statewide campaign. Some say he’s also positioned himself politically much like Bredesen after earning widespread support in Nashville’s business community.
But Dean has not faced a political test locally that comes anything close to a gubernatorial run. Attracting rural votes would be another issue. Some also wonder whether he has the appetite to not only run an uphill statewide campaign — but, if he wins, govern alongside a state legislature that is likely to retain a large Republican majority.
For now Republican leaders are talking confidently about 2018 regardless of who the Democrats field.
And given recent history, they might have reason to.
“We’re going to have one of the strongest fields of candidates we’ve ever put forth in 2018,” Tennessee Republican Party chairman Ryan Haynes said. “Whether Democrats continue fielding no-name candidates or elected liberals with dismal records, they won’t be able to match up against our nominees who will have proven records as conservative problem solvers.”
Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236 and on Twitter @joeygarrison.
“WE WOULD WELCOME MAYOR DEAN AS A CANDIDATE FOR GOVERNOR, BECAUSE AS WE HAVE SEEN FROM HIS TIME AS AN ELECTED OFFICIAL, WHEN DEMOCRATS GOVERN, TENNESSEE IS A BETTER PLACE FOR EVERYONE WHO LIVES AND WORKS.”
— MARY MANCINI, TENNESSEE DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIRWOMAN