Betting experts: Hillary, Rubio clear favorites

The New Hampshire primary is today, and the direction for the rest of the presidential campaign landscape could be set before we get to Wednesday.

If you want to question why a state with fewer people than the metro Nashville area gets to swing that much political power, well, that’s fair.

Still, today is a big point for two races that are strikingly different while competitively balanced.

It’s not quite a Super Bowlesque moment, especially for the frontrunners. It likely will be the merciful death blow for some of the bottom feeders of the Republican conversation.

And while we’re still basking in the afterglow of everyone’s favorite All-American Peyton Manning winning the Super Bowl, it’s a perfect time to look to the glare of predictions.

Yes, more than $120 million was wagered on the Super Bowl in Las Vegas last weekend, and for the 25th time in the last 27 years, Vegas collected more than it paid after the Denver Broncos’ upset 24-10 win Sunday night.

The lesson there, as always, is trust the experts who are willing to put their livelihood on it. In fact, how does Vegas build five-star hotels and offer lobster dinners for $5.99? Because they know more about sports than everyone else.

The same is also true for politics.

We are bouncing back and forth between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton and the hodgepodge of Republicans. We’re trying to figure who has momentum and which candidate is fading, but the shell game of politics may actually be as hollow as Clinton’s email excuses.

Forget caucuses and pollsters. Ignore talking heads and primaries.

Shouldn’t we just trust the folks who are making predictions and willing to put their money behind those picks?

A lot of the online options for political prediction markets have been closed legally in recent years.

There are still a couple of options out there in Predictit.org, Betfair.com and even Election BettingOdds.com.

So with their money on the line, these websites offer a look at the familiar names. This is not the CNN-left-leaning or the Fox News-right-swaying slants, however. This is the money-based lean of capitalism.

So as we put a ton of emphasis on what the 1.3 million folks in New Hampshire have to say, here’s what the political prediction sites say.

Predictit.org operates more like stock markets than Vegas, in which you can buy shares in a candidate. If your candidate wins the nomination or the general election, the payoff is multiplied.

Betfair.com and Election Betting Odds. com, though, give more direct odds.

Betfair has Clinton as a 2-to-1 pick to win the presidency in November, with Marco Rubio at 5-to1, Donald Trump around 10-to-1, Sanders at 15-to-1 and Iowa caucus winner Ted Cruz at 26-to-1.

Election Betting Odds. com has Clinton with an 80 percent chance to win the Democratic primary and more than 50 percent to win the election. Sanders is at 17-plus percent in the primary and less than seven percent to win in November.

For the Republicans, Rubio leads with 42.6 percent of a chance to get the nomination and 18.9 percent of winning the election. He’s followed by Trump, who has a 29.2 percent chance at the primary and a 10.1 percent chance to win the election.

Among the oddities in the percentage experts at Election Betting Odds. com is the belief that Jeb Bush has a better chance to win in November than Cruz (4.8 percent to 3.8 percent).

So, as the New Hampshire results roll in tonight, it will be interesting to see if the voters there share — or potentially shape — the opinion of the experts with skin in the game.

Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com. His “Right to the Point” column runs on A2 Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays.