IS loss of border area with Turkey sharply harms group

BEIRUT — Expelling the Islamic State group from the last territory it controlled along the Syrian-Turkish border has effectively cut the militants’ supply lines from the outside world. That could affect their ability to protect their last bastions — the cities of Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq.

The area under IS control has been shrinking for months, under assault from forces determined to wipe out the self-declared “caliphate.” The fight for Mosul appears to be imminent, with U.S.-backed Iraqi forces closing in, and Raqqa will probably be in the crosshairs for an attack possibly led by Kurdish militias in the near future.

If removed from power in the territory it controls, many fear it will turn even more decisively toward terrorist attacks against civilians in the region and in the West, operating from the shadows. It that way, it will be more like the group it developed from: al-Qaida.

A look at the current battle against Islamic State:

HOW DID THE SUPPLY LINES FROM TURKEY WORK?

After the Syrian conflict began in March 2011, people could evade Turkish troops on the border and sneak into or out of Syria. Many of those crossing into Syria were jihadis from around the world joining al-Qaida’s branch. Others, mostly Syrians, could use border checkpoints. Smugglers also were active, helping people cross over.

WHY DID TURKEY ALLOW THIS, AND WHAT CHANGED?

For years, Turkey turned a blind eye to the crossings. Neighboring countries also

had been buying oil from IS at rates cheaper than those on international markets. But Europe put pressure on Turkey after the Charlie Hebdo attack in France in 2015, and Ankara began to tighten its border security. Turkey’s gradual shift was followed by attacks blamed on the group inside Turkey itself, including one at Istanbul’s airport. Once relations improved between Turkey and Russia, and following a July coup attempt failed to remove President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from power, he sent his forces into Syria to battle the extremists, as well as Kurdish fighters who had crossed to the west bank of the Euphrates River against Turkey’s will. The Turkish acquiescence to IS finally seemed to be over. On Sunday, Turkish troops and Turkish-backed Syrian rebels captured all Syrian areas along the border that had been held by IS.

HOW DO MOSUL AND RAQQA STILL GET SUPPLIES?

Since Turkey tightened its border, IS has been relying on products brought from Turkey into the rebel-held Syrian border town of Azaz. Syrian merchants go to Azaz, buy what they need, and ship it by truck to Raqqa. Once inside IS-controlled areas, products would be sent to other IS-held territory.

WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF THE ISLAMIC STATE GROUP?

Hilal Khashan, political science professor at the American University of Beirut, believes the Islamic State group “is doomed in its current format,” unable to create a viable state. He and other experts see it becoming a decentralized organization, melting into the communities it has ruled like salt in water. “The danger is that what comes after Daesh might be worse,” said Iraqi journalist Dana Jalal, who closely follows jihadi groups, using an Arabic acronym for IS. “They will shave their beards, change their clothes and join other organizations that are not considered terrorist groups.” That could make it more vicious, he said, carrying out deadly attacks like those in in France, Belgium, Turkey, Iraq and elsewhere. Jalal noted that many members of Saddam Hussein’s army and Baath Party went underground and carried out guerrilla warfare against U.S. forces.