First-week struggles create opportunities
How was your first week? If you followed the picks here — and bought the half with Georgia Tech, as suggested — you were fairly well entertained.
We hit three of five, missing horribly on LSU and underestimating the grudge Lane Kiffin held against Southern California, because Alabama put more than half a hundred on the Trojans to almost go over the total by itself.
It could have been better. We ignored one of picking’s axioms. Rule 4 clearly states that if Hawaii comes east of the Rockies and kicks off before 2 p.m., you lay the points. Period. End of discussion. The Rainbow Warriors fit that bill, catching 40-plus points going to Michigan. They needed another three touchdowns as Michigan won 66-3. Opportunity missed.
And that’s what successful entertainment-only picks are about: opportunity.
This week, that opportunity is picking which teams struggled last week but are better than they showed and, conversely, better than the price Vegas has placed on them. Here’s a guess about buying low in a week that offers little intrigue but a lot of opportunity (lines as of Thursday morning on vegasinsider.com): Tennessee minus-11 over Virginia Tech. Yes, we are banking on the overreaction on a poor debut dropping this price under 14. It’s a game Tennessee should win by multiple touchdowns. But we all know that “should” should be a dirty word in entertainment-hunting circles. Duke minus-5 over Wake Forest. Yes, we know Rule 5 clearly states to avoid head-to-head Atlantic Coast Conference games, playing poker with guys nicknamed after a city and women with a dagger tattoo anywhere on their bodies. Still, Duke has been reliably solid — a rare opportunity in that league — under coach David Cutcliffe in regard to entertainment investments.
Vanderbilt-MTSU under the
48. Are we ignoring Rule 3, which tells us, “If a line looks too good to be true, it normally is” on this one? Maybe. But we are embracing Rule 2, which tells us, “You find something you think you know, and you go with it until the well runs dry.” We know Derek Mason’s Vandy teams have been better than expected on defense and worse than imaginable on offense. Research alert (and don’t get spoiled): After last week’s 13-10 loss to South Carolina, the under in Vandy games is 12-1-1 since the start of 2015 with Mason in charge. Anchors — and point totals — down indeed. Iowa minus-14 over Iowa State. This is a quality price for a complete mismatch in almost every phase. How confident are we here? Not even buying the half on a highly likely football number. Take that Cyclones. Side note: Of all the storm-related or natural disaster team names — Hurricanes, Tornado, et al — Cyclones is the worst. Unless there’s a Herd of Locusts out there. Or maybe the Fighting Famines. Last week: 3-2 against the spread (60 percent). Season: 3-2 against the spread (60 percent).
Did you enjoy last week’s drama and great theater? Great. I did, too. Now go watch the replays again, because this Saturday is the second-worst of the season. (That Saturday in November in the penultimate week of the regular season, before all the great rivalry games, is downright dreadful. This is almost as bad.)
How bad is this week? Gary and Verne and the CBS crew are doing Florida-Kentucky, which is a fine choice for the marquee matchup if this is the third Saturday in February. So it goes, but still, let’s find four items to check off your list as we all embrace in the glow that college football is back.
1. How many quarterbacks will “Upward SEC Football” coach Gus Malzahn employ this
weekend? Auburn’s offense was so stagnant against Clemson, the word stagnant takes offense to the comparison. Malzahn used five players behind center — two running backs and three quarterbacks — and he’s likely still searching for one who can be relied upon to move the offense. He even gave a large sample size to Jeremy Johnson, who has gone from Heisman front-runner to pariah in 13 short months. (Research alert: Johnson had 19 snaps at QB, and those plays generated a grand total of 30 yards. Time to retire the idea that Johnson is what Auburn hoped him to be last summer.) Auburn should handle Arkansas State on Saturday, but “should” has little to do with an offense that has this little identity. 2. “Battle of Bristol” — will it be a battle or a bloodbath?
The hype has been as subtle as a NASCAR race in your living room. That said, it’s strange to have more questions about Tennessee this week than last week. Can the offense emerge? Is Alvin Kamara out of Mike Debord’s doghouse? Will the Volunteers actually call more than one pass down the field, or has the NCAA put a directly proportional limit on their deep throws linked to the number of questions Butch Jones actually answers in the postgame news conference? (Last week, that number was one, so there’s that.) Everyone in the program — players, coaches, fans, you name it — underestimated Appalachian State, and it became a scary finish. A struggle with Virginia Tech this week, though, may mean we have to see if we overestimated these Vols.
3. Alabama’s defense. Why? Because it is insanely good and fast and deep and relentless. The Crimson Tide face Western Kentucky, which threw for a billion yards last week with a new quarterback and completed something crazy like 80 percent of its throws. That certainly won’t happen, but here’s betting Western gets more than the paltry six points USC mustered last week. Love them or loathe them, watching this Alabama defense play is fun — like watching Dale Sr. drive and Tiger Woods charge back in the day. Appreciate the excellence and enjoy the experience. Well, unless your team is on the other side. 4. First team to 17 wins. Man, the quarterback play in the league right now is scattered and less than savory. In addition to Auburn’s game of musical helmets that didn’t work, Mississippi State, Arkansas, South Carolina, Vandy, Missouri and, of course, LSU had quarterback issues that ranged from shaky to sketchy to stinky in erratic performances. Righting those situations becomes of the utmost importance this week, because most of the teams above are playing as rather heavy favorites. For Mississippi State and South Carolina, which face off in Starkville — as well as Vandy, which faces MTSU — those issues come in tightly contested games that could completely shape the season.
Contact Jay Greeson at jgreeson@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6343.