Picks get tougher as year gets older
The picks in this column were 4-1 against the number last week. It could have been a lot better. In fact, Vegas took one on the chin last Saturday, with favorites hitting better than 60 percent of the college plays last week. But if beggars can’t be choosers, entertainment hunters with a success rate of more than 55 percent against the number this season can’t be complainers. Normally. Still, you have to make as much hay as possible when the hot streaks happen. You have to realize your next tough weekend could be right around the corner.
This week feels like that seedy corner. We are deep in the season. Injuries and rest play a much bigger factor, meaning research matters even more.
And Vegas has enough material to stretch the levels of believability. There’s an over/under as low as 37.5 (South Carolina at Florida) and as high as 89.5 (Texas Tech at Oklahoma State). There’s a 1-8 team laying 10 points on the road when Iowa State visits Kansas, which may be the worst team in the entire Football Bowl Subdivision.
So now more than ever, we need to look at what we know and what we hope to know. That’s made tougher by trying to get a read on what the bodies and minds of college kids are thinking and feeling. It’s also made tougher by Vegas noticing the same trends, like Southern Cal and Oregon playing much better the past few weeks and Wisconsin games playing supremely low totals. (We left all those picks on the cutting room floor this week, so we’ll see.)
Alas. Let’s roll the dice, as they say, and see what we have (all lines are from vegasinsider. com as of Thursday morning):
Vandy plus-3.5 over Missouri and under the 54.5.
We’re going with a rare double play in this one because a) Missouri is the worst team in the SEC and the most listless, and b) the under is — well, it’s Vanderbilt and the under is almost always the play when Vandy plays. As for the game, the wrong team is favored here, so stick to our general rule of never taking an underdog unless you believe it can win the game outright. Unless …
North Texas plus-29 against Western Kentucky.
Rest and flow and consistency matter as much as anything this side of Nick Saban-level talent when it comes to hunting entertaining picks. That caveat points us to improving North Texas — which has won four games under first-year coach Seth Littrell after winning five the previous two seasons combined — catching more than four touchdowns against Western Kentucky, which is playing its 11th game in 11 weeks.
Georgia plus-10 over Auburn.
Buy the half here just for peace of mind, but this is a great price for the Bulldogs, whose offense gets more comfortable by the week with freshman quarterback Jacob Eason, who is going to be a star. In fact, if you can find Georgia on a money line at plus-320 to win outright, that’s a good price, too. This is always a hard-fought game, and the unknown status of bullish Auburn running back Kamryn Pettway makes Georgia even more likable.
Middle Tennessee State-Marshall under the 61.
MTSU record-setting quarterback Brett Stockstill — the head coach’s son — was hurt last week against Texas-San Antonio and will miss the rest of the season. How big a difference does Stockstill make? Well, MTSU was favored by 19.5 points. Stockstill broke his collarbone early in the second quarter. The Blue Raiders lost 45-25. That’s a 40-point swing in the entertainment world. Now take that show on the road against Marshall, which has not scored more than 28 points since its second game and still has a nice home-field crowd, and this one screams 21-13.
South Carolina plus-11.5 over Florida.
The ever-shrinking total — it was down to 37 Thursday morning — is a little too scary because each of these teams could score on defense. While there are some quarterback injuries and changes around the Southeastern Conference that have hurt teams, South Carolina appears to have found its answer. Maybe Florida bounces back in a big way after getting humiliated at Arkansas last Saturday, but this Gators offense should not be laying double digits to anyone not named Missouri in the SEC.
Last week: 4-1 against the spread (80 percent)
This season: 34-25 against the spread (57.6 percent)
Kentucky at Tennessee: Who stays on track?
The Wildcats have been one of the better — and more quiet turnaround — stories in the league over the past month. They’re a win away from being bowl eligible. The Volunteers have a renewed sense of purpose after Florida’s loss last week that revitalized Tennessee’s hopes of reaching the SEC title game. Vegas put a strange two-touchdown line on this one, which seems mighty high, but remember Vegas is Vegas because of numbers like this. How the Vols defense, which happily welcomes the return of cornerback Cam Sutton this week, handles the Wildcats’ wildcat likely will be the difference.
Steve Spurrier Visor Bowl.
Somewhere, the Ol’ Ball Coach is sick to his stomach because South Carolina and Florida, the two college programs he spent the most time coaching, will face off with an over/under of 37.5. You can almost hear Spurrier now, popping his visor up on his head, a Coors in one hand and a wry grin on his face: “Man, 37 points? That’s a good first half for some of those old Gator teams.” And he’s right. Which makes this a pretty important game for current Florida coach Jim McElwain, who faces firstyear Gamecocks coach Will Muschamp, the man McElwain replaced in Gainesville. Defenses aren’t the only things that will be tight Saturday in The Swamp.
Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry.
Man, this screams trouble for eighth-ranked Auburn. The Tigers are banged up, with quarterback Sean White battling shoulder troubles and bruising power back Kam Pettway’s status unknown. And those two cats have been the main reason Auburn has gone from 1-2 with a coach on the hottest of hot seats to 7-2 and getting College Football Playoff attention. It may have more meaning for Auburn in the grand perspective, but this feels like a game Georgia’s new staff and young players can build a season of positivity out of with a victory.
Alabama being Alabama.
Yes, there are backup quarterbacks playing in College Station. And yes, Vandy linebacker Zach Cunningham will be doing Zach Cunningham things at Missouri, but as long as Alabama is playing, the Tide have become must-see TV, especially defensively. This bunch is so fast and so aggressive and so deep, the waves are impressive in their relentlessness. Mississippi State had a great win last week over Texas A&M when Nick Fitzgerald became only the third quarterback is SEC history to pass for more than 200 yards and run for more than 175. The others — Johnny Manziel and Cam Newton — were eventual Heisman Trophy winners who beat Alabama.
Here’s believing the Fitzgerald comparisons end with the first stat.