THIS FLU SEASON HASN’T PEAKED
THE WORST SINCE 2009’S SWINE FLU CDC: 37 CHILDREN REPORTED DEAD ‘WIDESPREAD’ FOR A 3RD WEEK
This year’s flu season is now more intense than any since the 2009 swine flu pandemic and is still getting worse, federal health officials said Friday.
Nationally, the number of people who are falling ill with flu is still increasing. More worrying, the hospitalization rate — a predictor of the death rate — has just jumped, and is now on track to equal or surpass that of the 2014-15 flu season.
In that year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates, 34 million Americans got the flu, 710,000 were hospitalized and about 56,000 people died.
“We’ll expect something around those numbers,” Dr. Daniel B. Jernigan, director of the CDC’s influenza division, said during a telephone news conference Friday.
This week, the deaths of seven children were reported to the CDC, bringing this season’s total to 37. In 2014-15, there were 148 pediatric deaths — which the agency tracks individually, not by estimates, as it does with death totals.
It is too early to estimate how many children will die this season, Jernigan said, because the flu season still has weeks to run, and because the agency often does not learn of deaths — especially of children who die at home — until weeks after they occur.
“This virus really doesn’t look that different from what we saw last year.”
– RICHARD WEBBY, FLU RESEARCHER AT ST. JUDE CHILDREN’S RESEARCH HOSPITAL IN MEMPHIS
A New York pediatrician said her office has been busy, but added that the kids with the flu haven’t been quite as sick as in the past.
“For most of them, their symptoms are milder,” said Dr. Tiffany Knipe.
More people fell ill during the 2009 swine flu pandemic, but that was a new virus. This year’s dominant virus, H3N2, has been circulating for 50 years — it emerged as the Hong Kong flu in 1968 — but it is usually the most lethal of the seasonal strains.
H3N2 also was responsible for bad seasonal flu years in 1997-98 and 200304, Jernigan said.
This year’s flu shot targets the H3N2 flu virus, among others. But exactly how well it is working won’t be known until next month. It’s the same main bug from last winter, when the flu season wasn’t so bad. It’s not clear why this season — with the same bug — is worse, some experts said.
“That’s the kicker. This virus really doesn’t look that different from what we saw last year,” said Richard Webby, a flu researcher at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis.
It may be that many of the people getting sick this year managed to avoid infection last year. Or there may be some change in the virus that hasn’t been detected yet, said Jernigan.
The season usually peaks in February, but this season started early and took off in December.
This year’s intensity is high by several measures that the CDC uses. For three weeks straight, the health departments of 49 states — all except Hawaii — have reported “widespread” flu activity.
Sentinel sites in 39 states, New York City and Puerto Rico all reported “high” flu levels. The sites include more than 2,000 emergency rooms, clinics and doctor’s offices that report each week what percentage of their patients have flu symptoms.
Flu is a contagious respiratory illness. It can cause a miserable but relatively mild illness in many people, but a more severe illness in others. Young children and the elderly are at greatest risk from flu and its complications. In a bad season, there are as many as 56,000 deaths connected to the flu.
In the U.S., annual flu shots are recommended for everyone age 6 months or older. Last season, about 47 percent of Americans got vaccinated, according to CDC figures.
Jennifer Manton didn’t get a flu shot and got sick about two weeks ago, hit by high fever and body aches. She missed two days of work at a New York law firm, and felt bad for about 10 days.
“I had not had the flu since 1996,” said the 48-year-old Manton. “It’s been 22 years since I felt that badly.”