New fighting raises threat of escalation
MOSCOW — A Russian attempt to broker a cease-fire to end the worst outbreak of hostilities over the disputed region of Nagorno- Karabakh in more than a quarter-century has failed to get any traction, with rivals Azerbaijan and Armenia trading blame for new attacks.
The failure of the truce that was supposed to begin Saturday reflects the uncompromising positions of the two South Caucasus nations that have stymied decades of diplomatic efforts. The escalation of fighting raises the specter of a wider conflict that could draw in Russia and Turkey and threaten Caspian Sea energy exports.
Nagorno- Karabakh, populated mostly by Armenians, was an autonomous region inside Azerbaijan during the Soviet era. Historic tensions between Christian Armenians and mostly Muslim Azerbaijanis, fueled by memories of the 1915 massacre of 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman Turks, exploded in the final years of the Soviet Union.
In 1988, the region sought to join Armenia, triggering hostilities that morphed into an all-out war as the USSR collapsed in 1991. By the time a 1994 ceasefire ended the fighting, an estimated 30,000 people had been killed and up to 1 million were displaced. Armenian forces not only held Nagorno- Karabakh itself but also seized substantial chunks of land outside the territory’s borders.
Nagorno- Karabakh, a forested, mountainous territory that covers about 1,700 square miles, the size of the U.S. state of Delaware, has run its own affairs ever since, relying on Armenia’s support.
Ever since Armenian forces routed Azerbaijani troops in the war, international mediators have sought a political settlement but Armenia’s stiff resistance to surrendering any land has been a key stumbling block.