50-50 SENATE MAY NOT BE A DEMOCRATIC PANACEA
Much is being made of the potential for Democrats to win the two Georgia U.S. Senate seats in January’s runoffs, causing a virtual 50-50 tie and allowing presumed Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to break logjams.
That would allow, partisans hope, presumed Democrat President-elect Joe Biden to enact a leftist agenda and, in his words, put an end to the “America First” direction espoused by President Donald Trump.
His far-left supporters are dreaming of the end of the filibuster, which would result in 5o votes (and that of Harris) ushering in legislation like the Green New Deal, statehood for Puerto Rico, packing the Supreme Court, college loan forgiveness and slave reparations, just to name a few items.
We wouldn’t put it past the same party that rained down such hate and intolerance on the Trump administration the last four years to enact such legislation, but we believe cooler heads will prevail even if such a Senate comes about.
For one reason, two years is a very short time. In two years, every House seat and a third of Senate seats will be up for grabs. Voters in our center-right country — at least over the past 25 years — haven’t particularly liked when partisan governing went too far. So anything that smacks of “changing the rules” to enact legislation most of the country doesn’t want would likely cause a revolt at the 2022 ballot box.
The November election when Biden squeaked to victory — a change of 81,000 votes in four states being the difference — while Republicans gained back at least a dozen seats in the House is fresh evidence of what can happen.
History is a second reason we don’t see a vice presidential vote becoming a cudgel in a 50-50 Senate (which is actually 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and two independents who caucus with Democrats).
An evenly split Senate has only happened three times, most recently after the already controversial 2000 election. But, during the 2001-2003 congressional session, Vice President Dick Cheney was not called upon to break ties to pass President George W. Bush’s most significant legislation.
He broke eight 50-50 ties during his two terms as vice president, only three during the two years in which the Senate was evenly divided.
Two came during budget negotiations for the president’s first — 2002 — budget. The first was to pass an amendment setting up a reserve fund for the Medicare prescription drug program Bush wanted in the budget. The second was to eliminate the income tax marriage penalty, which charged married couples more in tax than two single people living together as a couple.
The actual budget, including’s Bush’s first tax cut, passed the Senate 53-47, with Georgia’s two Democratic senators — Zell Miller and Max Cleland — coincidentally, among the three Democrats voting for it.
Cheney’s third 50-50 vote came on a motion to table an amendment to the Trade Act of 2002. The amendment would have allowed the government to make short-term loans to individuals separated from employment in order to make their mortgage payments.
When the 1953-2955 congressional session opened, there were 48 Republicans, 47 Democrats and one independent who voted with Republicans on organizational matters. However, during the term, Sen. Robert Taft, R-Ohio, died, and the Ohio governor replaced him with a Democrat. So, Vice President Richard Nixon stood by ready to break ties, but he was never called to do so during the period.
The 1881-1883 session in which there were 37 Democrats and 37 Republicans, however, did provide some fireworks. Democrats, with two independents expected to vote their way, thought they were sitting pretty. But, after some apparent White House influence, when it came time to vote for committee assignments, one independent voted with the Republicans, meaning Republican Vice President Chester Arthur could break any 38-38 ties.
The special session of Congress that had been called to handle Cabinet and agency nominations for the incoming Garfield administration that was expected to last 11 days lasted 11 weeks, instead.
Democrat senators, a newspaper correspondent wrote with great understatement at the time, “were not in a hilarious mood. Their countenances were those of mourners at a funeral.”
If Republicans win one of the Georgia Senate races, Democrats likely will have similar countenances as their counterparts in 1881.
But even if Democrats win both races, we believe they will understand a 50-50 Senate is not a mandate. If they act as if it is, we believe their majority in both houses of Congress will be short-lived.