NERVOUS PELOSI INSISTS: DON’T SAY ‘RETREAT’!
House Democrats recently went on their annual retreat in Philadelphia. The purpose was to discuss policy initiatives for the coming months and, most of all, to come up with a message for midterm elections that Democrats are widely expected to lose.
In light of negative expectations, the party’s leader, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was so determined to put on a brave face that she banned the word “retreat” at the retreat, even though that is what the retreat has been called for many years, and even though Republicans also go on a regular retreat. The word went out to Democrats: Do not, under any circumstances, say the R-word.
When Pelosi met the media on Friday, she made sure to call the meeting an “issues conference.” Then she added, curtly: “Cross off the word ‘retreat.’ We do not retreat.”
Later, the No. 2 Democrat, Rep. Steny Hoyer, wanted to make sure everyone knew he had gotten the memo, beginning his remarks, “One of the major presentations in this conference, this remote — this renewal of resolve, as I call it, rather than a retreat …” Issues conference, renewal of resolve — call it whatever you want, just not a you-know-what.
It’s easy to make fun of Democrats, but in the big picture, what are they going to do, other than keep up a brave face? Even as the party gathered for its non-retreat in Philadelphia, The Wall Street Journal published results of a new poll that are absolutely devastating for their re-election hopes.
First, look at the so-called “generic ballot” question, which asks respondents if the election for Congress were held today, which candidate, Republican or Democrat, they would vote for. Republicans have trailed in the generic ballot for years at a time, but in the new Journal poll, they are ahead, 46% to 41%.
Then there is the president’s job approval rating — historically one of the best predictors of how his party will perform in midterms. If the president’s rating is above 50%, according to historical averages compiled by Gallup, his party is likely to lose seats in the House, but the loss will likely not be catastrophic — say, 12 or 14 seats. If the president’s rating is below 50%, the losses will likely be much larger — more than 35 seats. Biden’s job approval right now, in the Journal poll, is 42%.
But overall, it is a dismal picture for the party of Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden. And it appears that the grim outlook is beginning to wear on the president and the speaker. Biden became visibly irritated when, speaking to the Democratic lawmakers, he discussed the question of being blamed for inflation.
“I’m sick of this stuff!” Biden snapped. What he was sick of was Republicans claiming — accurately, it turns out — that enormous government expenditures, like Biden’s and Pelosi’s spending bills, worsen inflation. Not so, said Biden. Instead, the president had his own explanation. “Make no mistake,” he said, “inflation is largely the fault of Putin.”
Give the president points for effort, but it seems unlikely most Americans will agree with him, because the it’s-Putin’s-fault explanation conflicts with their personal experience. They remember last year, long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when inflation worries first arose, when prices started to shoot up, and the Biden White House assured them it was “transitory.” They have been to the grocery store. They have tried to buy a car. They know that inflation is more than just the price of gas, although the price of gas has been going up for a year — again, before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.
What can Democrats do? The elections are less than nine months away. Nearly all electoral indicators look bad for them. Barring some huge, entirely unforeseen event, they are headed for minority status in the House, and perhaps in the Senate. If that happens, the president’s ability to pass partisan legislation will be gone. The situation is approaching the code-red level. And blaming Vladimir Putin, or banning a word like “retreat,” won’t fix anything.