Falcons’ QB plans don’t hinge on a single player
The Atlanta Falcons made Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder the 74th overall pick of the NFL draft held last week in Las Vegas. He was the 10th player chosen in the third round. By then, the Falcons had taken a wide receiver, an edge rusher and a linebacker.
That Ridder was the second quarterback selected in the draft tells us what NFL teams thought of this class of quarterbacks.
This isn’t to say no quarterback taken in the third round has met professional success. Joe Montana (82nd overall in 1979) did OK. Russell Wilson (75th in 2012) was the starting quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks in two Super Bowls during the middle of the past decade, winning one. Nick Foles, taken 13 spots after Wilson in 2012, was MVP of the Philadelphia Eagles’ victory against the New England Patriots at Super Bowl LII in February 2018.
Those, however, are exceptions. New England spent the 74th pick on Ryan Mallett of Arkansas in 2011. He started four NFL games — though none for the Patriots, who had a competent No. 1. (And that player, Tom Brady, is the exception when it comes to NFL quarterbacks, not getting drafted until late in the sixth round of the 2000 draft.) Mike Glennon of North Carolina State, taken 73rd in 2015, is still around, having worked for six different clubs while totaling 31 starts. David Greene of Georgia went 85th in 2005; he didn’t take an NFL snap.
It would be presumptuous to label Ridder as Matt Ryan’s heir apparent in Atlanta. By comparison, Ryan was drafted 71 spots earlier than Ridder when the Falcons picked up the Boston College quarterback in 2008 to begin the post-Mike Vick, post-Bobby Petrino era.
Ryan started the opener of his rookie season. His first pass in that game was a touchdown. He started every game save three from 2008 through Jan. 9, 2022. Had the Falcons not pursued Deshaun Watson, Ryan would still work in Flowery Branch instead of Indianapolis.
This was Ryan in recent days, speaking on the Ryen Russillo podcast: “It’s more than likely I probably would’ve still been there had circumstances been different.”
For better or worse, the good ship Matty has sailed. Two hours after the trade with the Colts was announced on March 21, the Falcons signed Marcus Mariota, lately of the Las Vegas Raiders. Drafted No. 2 overall in 2015, when Jameis Winston was the top pick, Mariota once was a big deal.
He served as the Tennessee Titans’ starter for 4 1/2 seasons. He’s apt to be starting for the Falcons in September. He might not be starting in November.
Ridder’s rookie contract will run for four seasons. Mariota’s deal is for two years at $18.75 million. According to Spotrac, only $6.75M is guaranteed — his $1.5 million salary for 2022 and a $5 million signing bonus. Per Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network, Mariota will receive a $3 million bonus if he’s on the roster next March.
For a third-round pick to start the opener as a rookie is a lot to ask, probably too much. (Wilson did. Montana didn’t.) The narrowness of Mariota’s contract tells us the Falcons deem him a seat warmer. If Ridder shows anything, a franchise in need of a new No. 1 quarterback will be eager to see what he can do in games that count.
Jared Goff didn’t play in the Los Angeles Rams’ first nine games of 2016. They were 4-5 in early November, having scored 29 points over the previous three games. They turned to Goff, whose first seven starts resulted in losses. The next season, he took them to the playoffs. The season after that, he started in the Super Bowl.
Yes, there’s a difference. The Rams, who took Goff after trading with the Titans to acquire the No. 1 pick, had many more millions invested in him than the Falcons will in a third-rounder. Should Mariota resurrect his career — the way Ryan Tannehill did in Nashville at Mariota’s expense — the Falcons will be happy to keep him around for a second season. If this season goes belly up, its second half can serve as Ridder’s audition.
Were you a bettor, you’d bet on belly up. At last check, the Falcons’ over/under for wins was five, second lowest among the league’s 32 teams. There should be ample time for experimentation. If Ridder appears promising, the Falcons might not need to position themselves to snag Alabama quarterback Bryce Young next spring. If Ridder is overwhelmed, the positioning can commence.
The administration of general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith was handed a losing team hamstrung by a bloated payroll ahead of the 2021 season. Their club had to get worse to get better. The four-day flirtation with Watson was a case of the Falcons getting ahead of themselves, but the resulting trade of Ryan allowed the rebuild to begin in earnest.
As bleak as this season figures to be, there’s a plan in place. Mariota is in Atlanta, though his tenure might be brief. The Falcons won’t have to start a rookie in Week 1, but there’s nothing to keep them from bumping up Ridder in Week 10. If neither appears to be the long-term answer, there’s a better crop of quarterbacks next year.
Is it possible this franchise knows what it’s doing?