Belmont’s length isn’t helpful for Rich Strike
After so many things went right for Rich Strike to win the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago, he’ll likely need even more good fortune Saturday at the Belmont Stakes with so much stacked against him.
Rich Strike won’t go off at odds of more than 80-1 this time — the case ahead of his surprising victory May 7 in Lexington — but even after bypassing the Preakness Stakes to run in the final leg of the Triple Crown series, he’s not expected to be the horse to beat in the field of eight at Belmont Park. That distinction belongs to 2-1 morning line favorite We the People, a newcomer to the Triple Crown trail with the potential to set the pace in the 1 1/2-mile race and thrive if it rains Saturday in Elmont, New York.
If it’s a wet track similar to We the People’s romp to victory in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park last month, trainer Mark Casse doesn’t like anyone else’s chances.
“We’re all going to be running for second, even the Derby winner,” said Casse, who’s set to saddle Golden Glider, a distant runner-up to We the People in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 14.
Rich Strike ran past 19 other horses in shocking fashion to become the second-biggest long shot to win the Kentucky Derby. Even that took myriad factors to happen: sharp training at Churchill Downs the week before, the withdrawal of Ethereal Road to get into the field, a hot pace, the perfect trip and the kind of acceleration he had never shown before in a race.
“Is that his lifetime best? I don’t know,” said retired jockey Jerry Bailey, now an analyst for NBC Sports. “History will only tell us that. But I think he’s going to have to run better than that, actually, to win.”
That’s in part because horses don’t typically run as fast early in the longer Belmont — the Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles, while the Preakness Stakes is 1 3/16 — which is known as the “test of a champion.” The 154th edition of the race is particularly shaping up for a plodding pace with We the People looking like the only speed horse going up against Rich Strike and six other closers on a big, sandy track that doesn’t tend to favor late charges.
“The mile and a half is just an entirely different race,” said Casse, who won the Belmont three years ago with Sir Winston. “You don’t want to be too far away.”
The onus for that is on jockeys, and most notably Rich Strike’s Sonny Leon, whose navigation through traffic at the Kentucky Derby will go down as one of the best rides in the history of thoroughbred racing.
“We never expected to get the trip we got because to pass 19 horses is asking an awful lot,” trainer Eric Reed said this week. “Hats off to him. That’s one of the best rides ever.”
However, Leon has never ridden at Belmont Park before and was not scheduled for a mount on the main dirt track before getting aboard Rich Strike in the $1.5 million Belmont Stakes.
It looks to be a slow go, and that appears to set up perfectly for We the People to go wire to wire if jockey Flavien Prat can control the race.
Early Voting, which took the lead on the final turn to win the Preakness Stakes on May 21