US overdose deaths appear to be peaking, but experts are wary

NEW YORK — Preliminary government data suggests U.S. drug overdose deaths may have stopped rising, but many experts are urging caution, noting that past plateaus didn’t last.

On Wednesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released provisional data on what happened through the first six months of this year. The news appears to be hopeful.

Provisional data indicates U.S. overdose deaths fell three months in a row. The CDC estimated there were about 107,600 overdose deaths for the 12-month period between July 2021 and June 2022. That’s 40 fewer than in the 2021 calendar year.

“Today’s data continue to show a hopeful trend of a decrease in overdose deaths,” but more prevention and treatment work is needed, Dr. Rahul Gupta, director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, said in a statement Wednesday.

Indeed, the decline is uneven. Only eight states reported fewer overdose deaths, while all the others showed continued increases. And only four states —

Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia — reported sizable overdose death decreases of 100 or more, compared with the previous July-toJune period.

Officials in the four states said there was no single explanation, but they believe recent efforts may be paying off. They cite social media and health education campaigns to warn the public about the dangers of drug use, expanded addiction treatment and wider distribution of the overdose-reversing medication naloxone.

Some researchers are doubtful overdoses have peaked. Instead, they think a spike occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, when lockdowns and other restrictions isolated those with drug addictions and made treatment harder to get.

“We may just be returning to a pre-COVID level. I think we’ll need at least a year more of data to confirm that,” said Erin Winstanley, a West Virginia University researcher focused on the overdose epidemic’s health effects.