Georgia’s winter felt like spring. Here’s why that’s concerning
Azaleas are in full bloom, pollen counts are through the roof and the state’s most valuable fruit crops could be headed to harvest weeks ahead of normal — if farmers can dodge a late freeze.
It’s all due to the exceptionally hot winter Georgia and much of the eastern U.S. just experienced, which new federal data shows was among the warmest for the state in 129 years of record-keeping.
Georgia just recorded its second-hottest February on record, according to analysis from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Temperatures last month averaged 58.2 degrees Fahrenheit, a whopping 9.6 degrees above what was considered “normal” in February during the 20th century.
Apart from a dose of bitter Arctic cold delivered around Christmas, winter as a whole was abnormally warm. Looking at all of winter, the months from December 2022 to February 2023 were the sixthhottest such period in Georgia since 1896.
While Georgia and much of the East Coast experienced a warm winter, California and parts of the West were slammed by drenching rain and epic snow amid the region’s worst drought in 1,200 years. More whipsaws between periods of extreme drought and heavy precipitation are expected as the climate changes, experts say.
In Georgia, several factors contributed to the heat. A persistent ridge of high pressure pushed temperatures up over the eastern half of the country, while a waning La Niña pattern — which typically brings hotter than normal conditions to the southern U.S. — also played a role, said Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at UGA.
But the warmth is also a tell-tale sign of humancaused climate change, which is driving average temperatures up in Georgia and across the globe.
“As we continue to pump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, temperatures are expected to continue to rise,” said Theresa Crimmins, a professor at the University of Arizona and the director of the USA National Phenology Network (USAPN), which tracks how plants and animals respond to changing seasons. “And with increasing average temperatures, we can expect that we will reach those conditions associated with spring progressively earlier in future years,”
HEAT ENDANGERS BLUEBERRY CROP
The effects of Georgia’s warm winter are obvious in the fields of Dick Byne’s 22-acre organic blueberry farm 30 miles south of Augusta, where rows of bushes are covered in delicate white flowers.
“It just really looks very pretty,” he said. “It looks like snow on the top of my bushes.”
Byne estimates his plants are already seven to 10 days ahead of schedule and the blooms signal that fruit formation is imminent. If all goes according to plan, he expects to have a crop by late May — a few weeks earlier than normal. But with the flowers exposed, his crop is now at greater risk of damage if a spring freeze occurs.
In recent years, it’s a scenario that Byne has become all too familiar with. His berries have been wiped out completely the last two years by freeze events, along with the crop on many other Georgia blueberry farms that are part of an industry worth an estimated $304 million in the state.
In the U.S., winters are warming faster than any other season due to climate change, according to analysis by the nonprofit organization Climate Central. Unseasonable winter heat can trick plants to advance in development before the last frost.
With the risk of a freeze still lingering for a few more weeks, Byne says he’ll be watching the weather closely.
“If we don’t have a frost, we’re gonna have one prolific crop,” he said. “And that’s not only me, but that’s everybody in the Southeast.”
EARLY SPRING BRINGS PROLIFIC POLLEN
February’s spring-like temperatures also sent huge amounts of pollen into the air much earlier than normal.
On March 7, the pollen count in Atlanta reached 3,937 grains per cubic meter of air. In 2022, the city didn’t experience pollen concentrations that high until March 31.
Research has shown that Atlanta’s dreaded pollen season is beginning earlier and growing more intense due to climate change. If the planet continues to warm, pollen season could shift 20 days earlier and last 20 days longer by the end of this century, according to a study published last year in the scientific journal Nature Communications. Overall pollen production could also rise by nearly 30%, the same study found.
Other metrics also indicate spring conditions arrived early in Atlanta this year. According to the USAPN’s “First Leaf Index,” plants in Atlanta pushed their first leaves out about 10 days earlier than normal this year.
Crimmins, USAPN’s executive director, said that’s not unheard of for the city, but is in keeping with the long-term warming trend.
“With increasing average temperatures, we can expect that that we will reach those conditions associated with the start of spring progressively earlier in future years,” she said.
After three consecutive winters, La Niña — a phenomenon driven by temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that influences weather conditions across the globe — has finally ended, NOAA announced Thursday.
NOAA forecasters say this spring is likely to feature “neutral” conditions, but added that La Niña’s opposite — El Niño — could develop as soon as this summer and continue through the end of the year.
While La Niña typically brings drier, warmer conditions to Georgia and the southern half of the U.S. and wet weather to the northern half, El Niño is associated with an increased risk of flooding in the South.