POSSIBLE PATH FOR DESANTIS VS. TRUMP
Most recent polls put former President Donald Trump well ahead in the 2024 GOP presidential race. But that doesn’t mean the campaigns of his challengers are hopeless; in fact, a new poll of New Hampshire Republican primary voters shows there’s still a path to defeat him.
The poll, which was conducted independent of any political campaign and provided exclusively to me, took place between April 2 and 11 by political firm J.L. Partners. It surveyed 623 likely GOP primary voters and used an innovative technique that included multiple modes of contacting survey respondents, including live calls to landline phones and in-app texting. The partisan breakdown (New Hampshire allows registered independents to cast ballots in either party’s primary) was 65% Republican and 35% independent.
The results show that Trump leads the field with 51% of the vote when facing many potential contenders, with his top rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, winning 18% and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu coming in third at 10%. But when limited to a one-onone race with DeSantis, Trump’s lead shrinks to 20 points, or 53% to 33%, with the remainder undecided.
The fact that Trump moves up by only two points when the field is narrowed shows this race is not settled. DeSantis currently has not consolidated the support of GOP voters who want someone other than Trump, but once they are forced into a binary choice, his support rises while Trump’s remains nearly stagnant. That is the opposite of what happened in 2016, when Trump’s vote share increased substantially as more candidates dropped out.
Respondents were asked what one word they use to describe Trump and DeSantis. Those who chose neither man in a multicandidate field used words to describe Trump such as “arrogant,” “obnoxious,” “incompetent” or an expletive. They described DeSantis using words such as “competent,” “strong,” “unknown” or “undecided.” DeSantis’ challenge is to give these voters a clear and positive opinion of him while reinforcing their sharply negative views toward Trump.
The governor can do that if he runs as a competent winner. Voters who back neither Trump nor DeSantis overwhelmingly pick “competence” and “can beat Joe Biden” as the primary candidate attributes they value.
Fortunately for Trump, 71% of his voters said their mind was made up, suggesting the former president starts with a base of about 36% of the total vote. That’s nearly identical to the 35% he received when he easily won the 2016 primary. Trump clearly has a large loyalist base.
DeSantis’ backing is currently much softer. Only 29% of DeSantis backers say their mind is made up; 66% say they could still be persuaded to back someone else. Since 41% of firstround DeSantis backers say Trump is their second choice, it’s clear many soft DeSantis supporters are Trump-friendly. This is why Trump and DeSantis are waging a war over who is best-positioned to endorse MAGA themes: DeSantis has no chance to beat Trump if he loses support from those who like Trump but are willing to look elsewhere.
DeSantis will have to walk a narrow path between wooing Trump-friendly voters and attracting decidedly non-Trump ones. That’s a tough challenge, and he might not be up to the task. But the fact such an avenue is open explains why Trump is attacking him harshly. His team can see what this poll suggests: DeSantis will likely grow stronger the longer he remains viable.